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ATS NFL Week 9 Picks, Power Rankings, & More

Posted Nov 5, 2010

NFL picks and predictions for the season from ATS Consultants

NFL ... Week 9

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Sunday, November 7, 2010
Chicago over Buffalo
Buffalo is still looking for their first win and this should be it, right? They are home and Chicago has struggled. Oops, this game is in Toronto. So much for the home cooking for the luckless Bills, who lost another overtime game last week against Kansas City. Once again, they couldn’t get the running game going and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled to perform, completing 24 of 48 passes for 223 yards. Chicago is coming off a bye and they certainly needed it. But they are still in good a good position at 4-3 in the NFC North, just a half game behind the Packers. For some reason, they are better on the road, at 2-1. After losing 2 straight, maybe offensive coordinator Mike Martz can give the ball to Matt Forte instead of relying on Jay Cutler. The Bills will be a nice remedy.
Chicago over Buffalo 30-20

Sunday, November 7, 2010
UNDER 40 Minnesota/Arizona
Minnesota is beyond desperate in this game. In fact, they pretty much have to run the table at 2-5, other than (maybe get to 10-6) to have a chance to make the playoffs. With a battered Brett Favre and WR Randy Moss getting waived, this is an offense that despite all it’s talent, ranks just 22nd in the NFL. The whole team is a mess right now with head coach Brad Childress on the hot seat so if they are smart, they just feed RB Adrian Peterson for 25 carries. Arizona has it’s own issues with rookie Max Hall and veteran Derek Anderson combining for four interceptions yesterday. They did find a way to score 35 points, despite all their problems at quarterback and without a running game. That’s because Tampa Bay got sloppy in the second half. Minnesota does have the 10th-ranked defense and should stop the passing game.
UNDER 40 Minnesota/ Arizona (27-10)

Sunday, November 7, 2010
NY Giants over Seattle
NY Giants are 9-2 ATS L11 vs. NFC West teams. Seattle is 0-4-1 ATS L4 vs. NFC East. Seattle comes into this one at 4-3 and are 3-0 at home, with wins over San Diego, Chicago, San Francisco and Arizona. Not that impressive other than San Diego and now QB Matt Hasselbeck is coming off a concussion and a terrible game against the Raiders last week, where he completed just 13 of 32 passes. If he can’t go, they will have to go with untested Charlie Whitehurst against one of the most ferocious defensive lines in football. The New York Giants have won four straight games and is the hottest team in the NFC. The offense ranks 5th in the NFL overall as they have a solid balance between the run and the pass. THey face a Seattle team that ranks 23rd in the NFL and is just 28th against the pass. Eli Manning should have a field day if they give him time against a mediocre Seattle secondary.
NY Giants over Seattle 34-17

Sunday, November 7, 2010
UNDER 40’ Kansas City/Oakland
Kansas City is 13-23-1 UNDER as a road dog. Oakland is 3-8 UNDER L11 at home. Here’s a game between two surprising teams out West. Nobody outside of Kansas City expected the Chiefs to open up at 5-2 and lead the AFC West. Oakland has bounced back with two very impressive wins to improve to 4-4. Their defense has been extremely impressive as of late, as they now rank 18th in the NFL in overall defense and really shut down Seattle last week, 33-3. Kansas City held a solid Buffalo offense to just 10 points in a 13-10 overtime win. The offense put up over 400 yards, but the Chiefs have troubles scoring against good defense. The Chiefs’ defense allows just 17.4ppg and only 96.4ypg on the ground, which is a good thing, because they are facing Darren McFadden and the league’s top rushing offense (168.5ypg). UNDER 40.5 Kansas City/Oakland (13-17).

Sunday, November 7, 2010
San Diego at Houston
San Diego is 3-0 ATS L3 in series. Houston is 4-2 ATS L6 at home vs. AFC West. The Chargers finally got over the hump last week, with a home win over a quality Tennessee team. Phillip Rivers threw for 305 yards and two scores, and the Chargers had three rushers combine for 147 yards. They definitely have the balance, as they rank number one in the NFL in total offense and average 26.3ppg. However, their defense, has struggled, giving up big plays and turnovers haven’t helped. Houston is coming off a short week against a tough conference opponents.
Houston over San Diego 27-24

Sunday, November 7, 2010
New Orleans over Carolina
New Orleans is 6-2 ATS L8 on the road in series. Carolina is 4-1 ATS L5 in series. New Orleans won the first game this year, 16-14. The Saints have been banged up all year, but somehow managed to beat Pittsburgh at home last week, without running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Both are questionable, though Bush (fibula) might finally play. Carolina is coming off a 20-10 loss at St. Louis last week, where Matt Moore threw three picks and DeAngelo Williams sat out due to an injury. The Saints should win big on paper, but this is not on paper. New Orleans over Carolina 28-20

NFL Injury Report:
IR: Injured reserve, out for the season. PUP: Physically Unable to Perform List: Out first six games. Arizona: Check on:: LB Clark Haggans (groin-11/1).
Atlanta: Check on: LB Sean Weatherspoon (ankle-11/1), S Thomas DeCoud (head-11/1), and CB Dunta Robinson (head-11/1) TE Justin Peelle (hernia-10/20) is out 4-6 weeks.. IR: RB Jerious Norwood (knee-9/20).
Baltimore: LB Tavares Gooden (shoulder-11/1), SS Tom Zbikowski (heel-11/1), WR Donte’ Stallworth (broken foot-11/1) are ? IR: OT Jared Gaither (back-10/22). LB Sergio Kindle (head-9/18). CB Dominique Foxworth (knee-7/30).
Buffalo:Check on: CB Terrence McGee (knee-11/1). OL Cornell Green (knee-10/13) is out indef. IR: LB Kawika Mitchell (foot-9/10).
Carolina: Check on: RB DeAngelo Williams (foot-11/1). OT Jeff Otah (knee-10/18) is out indef. DT Hollis Thomas (suspension-7/4) is out first 8 games.
Chicago: Check on: LB Lance Briggs (ankle-11/1), CB Zackary Bowman (foot-11/1). IR: LB Hunter Hillenmeyer (concussion-9/15).
Cincinnati: Check on: S Roy L. Williams (knee-11/1), CB Jonathan Joseph (ankle-11/1), DT Tank Johnson (knee-11/1). DE Antwan Odom (susp.-10/18) is out 4 games. Elig. to return 11/21. IR: S Gibril Wilson (knee-8/21).
Cleveland: QB Jake Delhomme (ankle-11/1) is doubtful. Check on: QB Seneca Wallace (ankle-11/1), WR Mohammed Massaquoi (concussion-11/1), OL John St. Clair (ankle-11/1), OL Eric Steinbach (upper body-11/1). IR: DL Robaire Smith (back-10/18). LB D’Qwell Jackson (chest-9/27).
Dallas: Check on: OG Kyle Kosier (Achilles-11/1), OG Montrae Holland (groin-11/1), CB Terrence Newman (ribs-11/1). DE Jason Hatcher (groin-10/26) is out 4-6 weeks. QB Tony Romo (collarbone-10/25) is out 6-10 weeks. IR: LB Brandon Williams (ACL-8/15).
Denver: Check on: S Darcel McBath (ankle-11/1), OLB Wesley Woodyard (hamstring-11/1). DE Robert Ayers (foot-10/12) is out 6 weeks. IR: LB Elvis Dumervil (pectoral-8/5).
Detroit: QB Shaun Hill (hand-10/17) is out indef. IR: LB Zach Follett (head-10/25). DB Aaron Berry (shoulder-9/14).
Green Bay: Check on: SS Atari Bigby (ankle-11/1), OT Mark Tauscher (shldr-11/1), TE Andrew Quarless (shldr-11/1), NT Ryan Pickett (leg-11/1), CB Al Harris (knee-10/25). IR: DE Mike Neal (shldr-10/25), LB Brady Poppinga (knee-10/25). TE Jermichael Finley (knee-10/18). LB Nick Barnett (wrist-10/11). RB Ryan Grant (ankle surgery-9/14). CB Will Blackmon (knee-9/5).
Houston: Check on : LB Xavier Adibi (hamstring-11/1). DT Earl Mitchell (ankle-11/1) is dbtful. LB DeMeco Ryans (Achilles-10/17) is out for the season.
Indianapolis: Check on: RB Joseph Addai (shldr-11/1), DT Antonio Johnson (knee-11/1). SS Bob Sanders (bicep-9/14) is out indef. IR: TE Dallas Clark (wrist-10/22). SS Melvin Bullitt (shoulder-10/5). Jacksonville: Check on: QB Todd Bouman (finger-11/1), DE Jeremy Mincey (hand-11/1). IR: QB Luke McCown (knee-9/20). LB Freddie Keiaho (concussion-8/21). WR Scotty McGee (shoulder-9/20).
Kansas City: Check on: WR Dexter McCluster (ankle-11/1).
Miami: Check on: LB Channing Crowder (thumb-11/1). IR: DT Jared Odrick (foot-10/24).
Minnesota: Check on: QB Brett Favre (ankle/jaw-11/1), WR Sidney Rice (hip-11/1 still on PUP list), CB Lito Sheppard (hand-11/1). IR: CB Cedric Griffin (knee-10/17). New England: Check on: S Patrick Chung (knee-11/1), S Jarrad Page (calf-11/1), RB Fred Taylor (toe-11/1). IR: OT Nick Kaczur (back-10/12). DE Ty Warren (hip-8/15). CB Leigh Bodden (shoulder-9/1). RB Kevin Faulk (leg-9/20).
New Orleans: Check on: RB Reggie Bush (fibula-11/1), RB Pierre Thomas (knee-11/1), CB Tracy Porter (hamstring-11/1), CB Jabari Greer (shldr-11/1), DB Patrick Robinson (ankle-11/1). IR: CB Randall Gay (concussion-10/18). FS Chris Reis (shldr-10/5).
NY Giants: Check on: CB Will Blackmon (knee-11/1), OG Kevin Boothe (pectoral-11/11). C Shaun O’Hara (foot-11/1) is out. IR: DE Mathias Kiwanuka (neck-10/25). FS Michael Johnson (back-9/27). NY Jets:IR: DT Kris Jenkins (ACL-9/14).
Oakland: Check on: CB Nnamdi Osomugha (leg-11/1), DE John Henderson (foot-11/1). WR Louis Murphy (lung-10/26) and WR Chaz Schilens (knee-10/3) are out indef.
Philadelphia: Check on: OT Winston Justice (knee-11/1). QB Michael Vick (ribs-11/1) will start. C Jamaal Jackson (10/13) is out for the season. IR: FB Leonard Weaver (knee-9/13).
Pittsburgh: Check on: DE Brett Keisel (hamstring-11/1), OT Jonathan Scott (foot-11/1). DE Aaron Smith (tricep-10/25) is out indef. IR: QB Dennis Dixon (knee-10/3). OT Willie Colon (Achilles-6/29).
San Diego: Check on: WR Malcolm Floyd (hamstring-11/1), PK Nate Kaeding (groin-11/1), WR Legedu Naanee (hamstring-11/1), DB Darrell Stuckey (hamstring-11/1), WR Buster Davis (ribs-11/1) , WR Vincent Jackson (suspension/holdout-10/25) is expected to return 11/13. OLB Larry English (ankle-9/27) is out 4-6 weeks. IR:LB Kion Wilson (ankle-10/24). LB Shawne Merriman (calf-10/13). OLB Jyles Tucker (chest-10/4). LB James Holt (shldr-9/29).
San Francisco: Check on: TE Vernon Davis (ankle-11/1), C Eric Heitman (neck-11/1). QB Alex Smith (shldr-10/25) is out 2-3 weeks.
Seattle: Check on: OT Russell Okung (ankle-11/1), CB Kelly Jennings (hamstring-11/1), QB Matt Hasselbeck (concussion-11/1), WR Golden Tate (ankle-11/1), OG Ben Hamilton (concussion-11/1), DT Brandon Mebane (calf-11/1). IR: LB Leroy Hill (calf-9/22) is out indef.
St. Louis: Check on: CB Justin King (hamstring-11/1), DT Darrell Scott (ankle-11/1), TE Mike Hoomanawanui (ribs-11/1). SS James Butler (MCL-10/25) is out indef. . IR: WR Mark Clayton (knee-10/10). WR Donnie Avery (knee-8/29).
Tampa Bay: Check on: DT Brian Price (pelvis-11/1), RT Jeremy Trueblood (knee-11/1). C Jeff Faine (quad-10/13) is out 4-6 weeks. FS Tanard Jackson (susp.9/22) is out for the year. IR: RB Kareem Huggins (knee-10/18) is out for the year
Tennessee: WR Kenny Britt (hamstring-11/1). Check on: QB Vince Young (ankle-11/1), DT Tony Brown (knee-11/1), WR Justin Gage (hamstring-11/1), LB David Thornton (hip-11/1). IR: DE Derrick Morgan (knee-10/5).
Washington: Check on: RB Ryan Torain (hamstring-11/1), TE Chris Cooley (back-11/1), OG Derrick Dockery (groin-11/1), LB Perry Riley (foot-10/25). RB Clinton Portis (groin-10/6) is out 4-6 weeks. IR: P Josh Bidwell (hip-10/7).

NFL Power Ratings:

New England 93 4
Pittsburgh 91 4
New York Jets 91 3
Indianapolis 91 4
Baltimore 91 3
New York Giants 90 3
Tennessee 90 4
Miami 90 3
Green Bay 90 4
New Orleans 90 3
Atlanta 89 3
Houston 89 3
Washington 88 3
Minnesota 88 3
Philadelphia 88 3
San Diego 88 4
Kansas City 88 4
Chicago 87 3
Jacksonville 87 3
Tampa Bay 87 4
Cincinnati 86 3
Seattle 86 5
Dallas 86 3
Cleveland 86 3
St. Louis 86 4
Oakland 86 4
San Francisco 85 3
Arizona 85 3
Carolina 85 3
Denver 84 4
Detroit 84 3
Buffalo 83 3

A power play is when there is a 5 point difference between the real line and a power rating line.

NFL Trends & Angles for Wk 9
All stats are against the spread unless otherwise indicated.
Byes: Denver, Jacksonville, San Francisco, St. Louis, Tennessee, Washington
Sunday, November 7, 2010:
Chicago at Buffalo (Toronto): Chi is: 1) Buf is: 1)Home team is 7-0 L7 in series. 2)10-5-2 as a non-division home dog of 3 or more.

San Diego at Houston: SD is: 1)3-0 L3 in series. Hou is: 1)4-2 L6 at home vs. AFC West. 2)9-4 OVER after a division loss (if applies).

New Orleans at Carolina: NO is: 1)6-2 L8 on road in series. 2)12-5 OVER as a division road fave. Car is: 1)4-1 L5 in series. 2)11-4-1 as a division dog.

Arizona at Minnesota: Ariz is: 1)3-1 L4 in series. 2)25-13 OVER on turf. Minn is: 1)1)6-1-1 L8 Nov. home games. 2)4-1 L5 at home in series. 3)7-17 as a fave of 7.5 or more.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: TB is: 1)8-2 L10 on road in series. 2)5-1 L6 in series. Atl is: 1) Fave is 17-6-2 in series. 2)21-10-4 as a division fave. 3)11-20 at home after a SU and ATS win.

New York Jets at Detroit: Jets are: 1)7-1 L8 vs. NFC North teams. 2)3-1 L4 in series. 3)3-1 L4 on the road in series. 4)18-28 UNDER as a non-conference fave. Det is: 1)0-8 L8 at home in November.

Miami at Baltimore: Mia is: 1)5-0 L5 on the road in series. 2)1-4 vs. opponent off a bye. Balt is: 1)13-6-1 L20 Nov. home games. 2)39-15 hosting a non-division foe. 3)7-1 after a bye.

New England at Cleveland: NE is: 1)4-0 L4 in series. 2)12-6-1 OVER as a road fave. Cleve is: 1)8-1 L9 vs. AFC East teams. 2)8-1 vs. AFC East. 3)7-1 facing a .500 or more team in November.

New York Giants at Seattle: NYG are: 1)9-2 L11 vs. NFC West teams. Sea is: 1)0-4-1 L5 vs. NFC East. 2)3-1 L4 at home in series. 3)8-0 before playing Arizona.

Kansas City at Oakland: KC is: 1)7-0 L7 on the road in series. 2)13-23-1 UNDER as a road dog. Oak is: 1)3-8 UNDER L11 at home. 2)0-12 L12 as a favorite. 3)3-19 at home in division play.

Indianapolis at Philadelphia: Indy is: 1)3-0 L3 on the road in series. 2)4-0 L4 in series. 3)21-9 OVER vs. NFC. Philly is: 1)6-2 OVER L8 at home in November. 2)21-9 OVER as a dog.

Dallas at Green Bay: Dal is: 1)13-4 L17 in November. 2)10-4 L14 in series. 3)16-4 before playing NY Giants. 4)21-9 OVER as a single digit dog. GB is: 1)3-1 L4 at home in series. 2)8-2 before playing Minnesota. 3)11-3-4 OVER as a home fave of 3.5 or less.

Monday, November 8, 2010 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Pitt is: 1)5-2 L7 in series. 2)2-9 off a non-conference road game. Cincy is: 1)1-7-1 L9 at home in series. 2)2-6 UNDER at home in series. 3)27-15 OVER as a division home dog.