2010 Big 12 Fearless Predictions - Sept. 11

Fearless Predictions for every Big 12 game, Sept. 11

2010 Big 12 Fearless Predictions

Week 2 ... Sept. 12 Games

Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech

Fearless Predictions 
-  Sept. 11, Part 2 
- Sept. 4

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GAME OF THE WEEK

Florida State (1-0) at Oklahoma (1-0) Sept. 11, 3:30 ET, ABC

Here’s The Deal … There’s chatter of a rematch of the 2000 National Championship game. However, this week’s highly-anticipated battle between Oklahoma and Florida State is all about the present and future state of the programs. Both the Sooners and the Seminoles are coming off dreadful seasons by their standards, and are hoping to use this meeting as a launching pad for a return to glory in 2010. Oklahoma struggled in the opener to get by Utah State, 31-24. Was it looking ahead or just overrated as a top 10 team? For Florida State, this is the first show-me game of the Jimbo Fisher era. While the Seminoles were flawless on Saturday, how much can you derive from a 59-6 thrashing of Samford? As if more juicy sub plots are needed, Oklahoma enters with a nation’s-best 31-game home winning streak, and Stoops brothers will square off for the first time, Bob as the Sooner coach and Mark as the Seminole defensive coordinator.
Why Florida State Might Win: The ‘Noles left few doubts that their offense has a chance to be among the best in America this fall. Sure, it was against Samford, but don’t discount the effort. It all starts with QB Christian Ponder, who’s making ascent as a national commodity. He was near perfect in his first game back from a shoulder injury, going 12-of-14 for 167 yards, four touchdowns and a pick. He’ll be well-protected from G Rodney Hudson and an experienced line. He’ll get some good looks on an Oklahoma secondary that’s breaking in two new cornerbacks and just got done being carved up by Aggie Diondre Borel; the Sooners yielded six passes of at least 25 yards on Saturday night.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: Go ahead and marvel at the Florida State offense. The defense, on the other hand, still has plenty to prove. No one will for sure until Saturday night how far this unit has progressed from last year’s disaster, when the Seminoles were repeatedly abused through the air. The Sooners will put them to the test with the Landry Jones to Ryan Broyles connection. The two hooked up nine times for 142 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win. Making sure Florida State respects the run will be DeMarco Murray, who added 218 yards and two scores of his own on the ground. The ‘Noles are still searching for a consistent pass rusher, which means Jones should have time to make his reads.
What To Watch Out For: When Florida State CB Greg Reid is locked on to Broyles, it’s going to be the best game-within-the-game of the afternoon, if not the entire weekend. A couple of superb athletes, the winner of their duel could dictate who leaves Norman with a victory. Broyles is one of the best in the country at his position, but Reid is a budding superstar with a chance to become a household name if he shuts No. 85 down. Both are also elite punt returners, so they’ll play prominent roles on special teams as well.
What Will Happen: For so many reasons, this one has all of the ingredients to become an instant classic. The gap between the schools is not nearly as wide as many will have you believe. Florida State is a little underrated. Oklahoma a bit overrated. Still, it’s hard to buck history, which says the Sooners simply don’t lose in Norman. In a game that’ll be dictated by the offenses, OU will also enjoy an important edge on the ground, getting the balance and big runs from Murray needed to keep the ‘Noles from dropping back to stop the pass.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 33 … Florida State 30 … Line: Oklahoma -9
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 5
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Georgia Tech (1-0) at Kansas (0-1) Sept. 11, 12:00 ET, Fox Sports Net

Here’s The Deal … Georgia Tech makes a rare trip to the Great Plains to face a Big 12 team for the first time since 1993. It’s also just the second meeting between these two schools, which last met in the 1948 Orange Bowl. Yet, with the Yellow Jackets bringing the option to face a Turner Gill-led team, there’ll be something oddly familiar about the match up. Tech began its quest for back-to-back ACC championships by easily disposing of South Carolina State, 41-10. The running game was predictably potent, piling up 372 yards, but there are question marks on both sides of the ball that have yet to be answered. Kansas was one of the biggest flops of the opening weekend, stumbling to North Dakota State, 6-3. It was hardly the debut anyone anticipated for Gill, indicating he might need more time than originally believed to turn this program around.
Why Georgia Tech Might Win: It’s only a week into the season, but the two offenses are already on completely opposite spectrums. The Yellow Jackets harbor veteran QB Joshua Nesbitt, the point guard of an offense that’ll wear defenses down with the running game. He has no shortage of available weapons, headed by complimentary backs Anthony Allen and Roddy Jones. Kansas, on the other hand, failed to reach the end zone on an FCS opponent. The Jayhawks were sloppy with the ball, brutal on third down, and unable to create space for the backs. And after Kale Pick was yanked late in favor of redshirt freshman Jordan Webb, there might also be a quarterback controversy brewing.
Why Kansas Might Win: Lost in the debacle of the opening weekend was the play of the defense, the fewest allowed in a Jayhawk loss since 1962. Kansas played surprisingly well considering all of its turnover, keeping the Bisons out of the end zone and holding them to 168 yards. Up front, the inside-outside combo of Richard Johnson and Jake Laptad could create problems for an up-and-down Tech offensive line. Plus, the threat of the Yellow Jacket passing game, an underrated component of the offense, isn’t what it used to be when WR Demaryius Thomas was stretching defenses. Nesbitt was just 1-of-6 for a career-low eight yards on Saturday.
What To Watch Out For: Tech defensive coordinator Al Groh might want to dial up a few more blitzes this week, turning loose LB Steven Sylvester and S Cooper Taylor. The Kansas offensive line, though experienced, is shaky, and whoever is taking snaps will be ripe for making poor decisions when the pocket starts to collapse.
What Will Happen: Georgia Tech is an imperfect product, but Kansas has a long way to go before achieving respectability. Each week will be a lesson. This Saturday, the Jayhawks will get schooled in stopping the run and filling lanes on defense. Nesbitt will once again be the catalyst of a Jacket win, running for 100 yards and a couple of scores.
CFN Prediction: Georgia Tech 31 … Kansas 14 … Line: Georgia Tech -13.5
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 2
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Idaho (1-0) at Nebraska (1-0) Sept. 11, 12:30

Here’s The Deal … This will be an interesting measuring stick for Idaho. After years of being among the dregs of college football, the Vandals came up with a shocking 8-5 2009 season, finishing with a Humanitarian Bowl win over Bowling Green, and they blew away North Dakota 45-0 to start 2010. Idaho isn’t going to beat Nebraska, but it’ll be important to see how competitive this game will be. Old Idaho loses this by 50, but this is a feisty group that knows how to win now and it should provide more than a light scrimmage for a Husker team that might be looking ahead to the trip to face Jake Locker and Washington. The Huskers dispatched of Western Kentucky 49-10 to start the season, and Idaho represents the only game in the first five against a 2009 bowl team until Texas in mid-October.
Why Idaho Might Win: What happened to the Nebraska pass rush? Without Mr. Suh on the inside, the Husker defensive front wasn’t exactly frothing at the mouth against Western Kentucky registering just one sack and two tackles for loss while being ripped up by RB Bobby Rainey for a career-high 155 yards. With Deonte Jackson hurting with an ankle injury, Princeton McCarty and Kama Bailey will have to carry the rushing load, but the key to the attack will be veteran QB Nathan Enderle, a borderline pro prospect who has been smoking-hot over his last three games going back to last year with nine touchdown passes and just one pick. Idaho isn’t going to be intimidated by Nebraska.
Why Nebraska Might Win: What happened to the Nebraska pass rush? It’ll show up this week. It wasn’t that the Husker defense was awful against WKU, but it wasn’t the great performance a group of this caliber should’ve come up with. This week will be when everyone up front starts to shine against a porous and rebuilding Vandal offensive front that gave up four sacks and six tackles for loss against North Dakota and might get Enderle killed this week. Idaho might have veteran offensive playmakers, but they’re not going to get a chance to show what they can do.
What To Watch Out For: As if the Husker Nation wasn’t buzzing enough, the one glaring question mark might have been answered in one scintillating performance against a bad team. It was Western Kentucky and it was only one game, but true freshman Taylor Martinez looked the part of the type of quarterback who can be the one who takes the program to another level. While he’s a decent passer and completed 9-of-15 passes for 136 yards, “T-Magic” is at his best on the move tearing off 127 yards and three scores, hitting home runs from 46, 19, and 15 yards out, on just seven carries. If he can be that good on a consistent basis, it’s uh-oh time for the rest of the Big 12.
What Will Happen: Martinez will have another great game against a porous Idaho defense, but star safety Shiloh Keo will come up with a huge performance with at least ten tackles. The Vandal offense will be game, but it’ll have a hard time getting the chains moving with half the Husker defensive front sitting on Enderle’s head.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 52 … Idaho 20 … Line: Nebraska -28.5
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 2.5
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Iowa State (1-0) at Iowa (1-0) Sept. 11, 3:30, ABC

Here’s The Deal … Over the last several years, Iowa State has taken its cuts and came up with some stunning wins in this series. Rarely have the Cyclones been better than the Hawkeyes, but the cliché of throwing out the record books when these two go at it applies. However, it’s been all Iowa over the last two meetings with a dominant 35-3 win last year coming off a 17-5 victory in 2008. The expectations are through the roof for the Hawkeyes with the talent and the schedule to be a major factor in the BCS Championship race, but they need to be a bit better than they were in the 37-7 win over Eastern Illinois. While the offense kept the chains moving, the two fumbles weren’t a plus and the team slowed down after a strong first quarter. It’s nitpicking considering the victory was nothing more than a live scrimmage, but for a team this good, it needs to be clicking this week before a dangerous trip to Arizona. Iowa State took care of Northern Illinois with surprising ease. The Huskies could end up winning the MAC, but the Cyclone offense moved well and the run defense slowed down the dangerous attack. With the Big 12 opener at Kansas State next week, this is a great test to see how much the team has progressed under second year head man Paul Rhoads.
Why Iowa State Might Win: The Cyclone passing game is working. Everyone knows Alexander Robinson is among the Big 12’s most dangerous backs, and QB Austen Arnaud is at his best when he’s on the move, but last week the offense was able to move the ball through the air with 265 yards against the NIU secondary. It wasn’t the most efficient effort, but anything that can take the heat off Robinson is a good thing. Against the phenomenal Iowa defense, converting third downs is a must. That happens by making the down and distance manageable, and with a good short passing game the Cyclones should be in plenty of 3rd and two situations instead of 3rd and eight.
Why Iowa Might Win: The Iowa running game should be able to manhandle the Cyclone defensive front. Last week NIU only gained 156 yards on the ground, but that was partly because DeMarcus Grady was at quarterback and there was no threat of being burned by the Huskie air prowess. Grady completed fewer than half of his passes for 93 yards and no touchdowns with three interceptions, but Ricky Stanzi isn’t Grady, and bum knee and all, he’ll be good enough provide a few big home runs. Iowa should have a much better time running the ball than NIU thanks to a more balanced offense and the emergence of …
What To Watch Out For: Adam Robinson and the expected return of Jewel Hampton, who was suspended for the season opener. Hampton, the team’s best back, might not get to hog all the carries to himself with Robinson proving he’s worthy of being the focal point of the ground game. The team’s leading returning rusher blasted out 109 yards and three scores on 29 carries against Eastern Illinois, and while Hawkeye fans want to see what Hampton can do, Robinson could still be the most effective runner. He’s a proven workhorse, but he wore down last year and now should be even more effective with a great back in Hampton to be the star at times.
What Will Happen: Iowa State QB Austen Arnaud had a nightmare of a day last year against the Hawkeyes throwing four picks and just 79 yards in the blowout loss. He’ll make amends with a tremendous performance, but it won’t be enough as Iowa runs for 200 yards to overcome several turnovers on the way to the win.
CFN Prediction: Iowa 27 … Iowa State 13 … Line: Iowa -13.5
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 2.5
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Colorado (1-0) at Cal (1-0) Sept. 11, 3:30 ET, Fox Sports Net

Here’s The Deal … In the future, Colorado and Cal will play as members of the Pac-10 conference. On Saturday, they’ll meet in a non-conference game that could set the course for the first half of the season. With the clock ticking on Dan Hawkins’ career in Boulder, the Buffaloes began the year exactly the way it had to, suffocating rival Colorado State, 24-3. It’s been a while since Colorado copped a quality win away from home, so this trip west affords it an opportunity to build some confidence and begin changing the mindset around campus. A perennial fast starter, Cal opened with a comfortable 52-3 win over UC Davis that was little more than a walk through. Prone to raising expectations before falling flat during the Jeff Tedford era, the Bears realize that respect won’t come until they’re able to win the toughest games on the schedule.
Why Colorado Might Win: Hawkins has access to as much talent as he’s had in his four years in Boulder. The Buffs have one of the nation’s best left tackles, Nate Solder, a receiving corps greatly enhanced by transfers, and one of the Big 12’s best corner tandems, Jimmy Smith and Jalil Brown. While it may not be championship-worthy, it’s a nice foundation to build upon. That collection of receivers, which is headed by sure-handed Scotty McKnight and bolstered by Travon Patterson (USC) and Toney Clemons (Michigan), will be a step quicker than the vulnerable Cal secondary.
Why Cal Might Win: Colorado has question marks in the front seven and a penchant for being pilloried by quality running teams. The Bears will take advantage with a combination of Shane Vereen and Isi Sofele, game-breaking backs, who can get to the second and third level in a hurry. They’ll also enjoy an edge up front, where the Mitchell Schwartz-led line is capable of bullying opponents at the point of attack. The Cal run defense is capable of putting pressure on QB Tyler Hansen and putting the Buffs in plenty of third-and-long situations. It’s going to be tough for them to navigate a front seven sparked by DE Cameron Jordan, NG Kendrick Payne, and LB Mike Mohamed.
What To Watch Out For: Cal has wasted no time unleashing its newest weapon on offense, true freshman WR Keenan Allen. Showing right away why he won the starting job opposite Marvin Jones in the summer, the combustible rookie debuted with four catches for 120 yards and a score and three rushes for 38 yards and another touchdown. For obvious reasons, the Bear staff will continue searching for new ways to get the ball in his hands.
What Will Happen: Although Colorado might be finally heading in the right direction, pulling the upset in Berkeley is too tall of an order. Cal will be fueled by Vereen and the running game, which will churn out 200 yards and set up QB Kevin Riley for play-action to TE Anthony Miller on intermediate routes. The Buff offense, though better, isn’t ready to win games requiring it to score more than 30 points.
CFN Prediction: Cal 31 … Colorado 21 … Line: Cal -7.5
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 3
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McNeese State (1-0) at Missouri (1-0) Sept. 11, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … Missouri came up with a shockingly mediocre performance against Illinois, but it still came up with a 23-13 win. The passing game didn’t explode, the Derrick Washington-less ground game got stuffed, and it took way, way too long to put a bad team away. Fortunately, there’s time to get everything in order with four straight home games before going to Texas A&M. McNeese State is good enough to win the Southland Conference and it’s coming off a 30-27 win over Lamar, but this is simply a nice payday and a fun filled trip to sparkling Columbia. This isn’t the only game against an FBS team with at trip to LSU coming up in mid-October.
Why McNeese State Might Win: It took a slew of takeaways to get the Mizzou offense moving against Illinois. This will be a far different game, but MSU has a decent defense with a strong front line that allowed just 20 rushing yards to Lamar. Jacob Bower and the Cowboy passing game can get the ball moving and could do just enough to put up some passing yards to keep this from being too brutal.
Why Missouri Might Win: MSU is still trying to get the offensive pieces in place, and it’s going to struggle against an aggressive Mizzou defense that did a nice job of screwing up the debut of Illinois quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase allowing him to complete just nine passes while picking off three. The Tiger secondary might give up some garbage time yards, but it’s not going to allow much of anything early on thanks to a defensive front that should be dominant.
What To Watch Out For: Now is the time to build up the All-America résumé. Sophomore DE Aldon Smith destroyed Illinois with two sacks and seven tackles in an impressive, dominant performance, and this week he could have a few sacks on the opening drive. Too quick, too strong, and too talented, Smith will be have to be double teamed on every play or he’ll ruin everything the Cowboy offense tries to do.
What Will Happen: The sputtering of the Missouri offense last week will give way to a ground game that will work this week as the attack puts up as many big numbers as it wants to. The backups will get in some good work after halftime.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 58 … McNeese State 0 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 1
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- Sept. 11, Part 2