2010 Big 12 Fearless Picks - Sept. 11, Part 2

Fearless Predictions for every Big 12 game, Sept. 11, Part 2

2010 Big 12 Fearless Predictions

Week 2 ... Sept. 12, Part 2

Big 12
North Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech

Fearless Predictions 
- Sept. 11 (FSU at OU) |  Sept. 4

Troy (1-0) at Oklahoma State (1-0) Sept. 11, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … If the Troy offense of last year can show up for one week, this could be one of the wildest shootouts of the weekend. The Trojans are coming off a thrilling win over Bowling Green with Michael Taylor nailing a 34-yard field goal in the final few seconds, but they’ll have to come up with a special performance against an Oklahoma State team that no one gave much thought to before the season. Beating up on Washington State is hardly anything to chirp about, but if nothing else, the Cowboys look like they might be a whole bunch of fun with a more exciting attack. There should be shootout out after shootout over the next few weeks with Tulsa and Texas A&M up next and Texas Tech on the horizon, but the team needs as many winnable games it can get with so much turnover on both sides of the ball. The two teams played two years ago in what Troy saw as a potential statement game, and it got whacked 55-24.
Why Troy Might Win: There’s a chance the Troy running game could work up the middle if OSU is missing its key parts. The Cowboys weren’t expected to be a brick wall against the run anyway, and they’re trying to go on with its defensive tackles banged up. Chris Donaldson has an ankle problem but he could play, while Shane Jarka is out after also getting hurt last week suffering a knee injury. Depth in the middle was a problem before, but now it’s a huge issue that Troy might be able to exploit. The offensive line is one of the best in the Sun Belt and the ground game is coming off a 211-yard day against Bowling Green.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Bombs away. Bowling Green was starting from near-scratch after losing QB Tyler Sheehan and record-setting WR Freddie Barnes, but it was able to move the ball well cranking out 329 yards with 221 coming through the air. If Bowling Green could be good against a mediocre Troy defense, Oklahoma State should be fantastic. On the other side, yes, the Troy offensive front is good, but it couldn’t pass protect last week. If the Cowboys want to get into the backfield, they’ll be able to do it.
What To Watch Out For: The Dana Holgorsen offense worked exactly like it was supposed to. The new OSU offensive coordinator had all the parts working with Brandon Weeden completed 22-of-30 passes for 218 yards and three touchdowns and Kendall Hunter ran 21 times for 257 yards and four scores. There were problems on third downs (converting 4-of-14 chances), but whatever; it worked. Troy isn’t going to be much more of a challenge than Wazzu, and Weeden has a banged up hand, but the attack has taken the already strong offensive team to another level.
What Will Happen: Oklahoma State will put up over 500 yards and should bomb its way to yet another blowout. Hunter will remain the nation’s leading runner, Weeden will throw four touchdown passes, and all will be right with the world … on offense. The defense is going to struggle as Troy will keep up for a little while before sputtering just enough to let the Cowboys crank things up.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 54 … Troy 23 … Line: OSU -13.5
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 2
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Buffalo (1-0) at Baylor (1-0) Sept. 11, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … For those of you pining for a rematch of Baylor’s 34-21 win over the Bulls in 2007, your dream has come true. Each team has a dream of going to a bowl game, but that might not happen for either side without a win this week, especially for Baylor. The Bears got their star back, QB Robert Griffin, and he looked great in the 34-3 season opening win over Sam Houston State. With TCU up next, he has to get fully back up to speed in just his second game back from a knee injury that cost him most of last year. With a brutal slate ahead with four road games in the next five and six in the next eight, home dates like this have to be taken advantage of. For Buffalo, new head coach Jeff Quinn won his first game, beating Rhode Island 31-0, while the old head man Turner Gill was busy leading Kansas to a scintillating 6-3 loss to North Dakota State. This begins an ugly run of four road games in the next five week, and while UB is the heavy underdog, a nice showing might do wonders going into a home date with UCF.
Why Buffalo Might Win: Quinn wanted his defense to be swarming and aggressive from the start, and it was against URI. The mobility of Griffin negates most good pass rushers, but Baylor’s offensive line could be the team’s biggest weakness. The Bulls showed in the opening weekend that they’ll keep bringing the production all game long with five sacks and nine tackles for loss. Buffalo might not be Texas when it comes to firepower, but there are some good backs and some dangerous playmakers, like WR Marcus Rivers, to worry about.
Why Baylor Might Win: The Buffalo linebackers aren’t that big a deal. They had a nice first game against Rhode Island, but they’re about to be in for a nightmare if Griffin decides to take off and get the ground game moving. BU found a nice offensive balance last week and will continue to work with the short to midrange passing game, but Griffin should find a way to get on the move a little more after keeping the running under wraps last week. The UB defensive front won’t have an answer when the Bears get to the second level. However …
What To Watch Out For: Will Griffin really take off? He got the timing of the passing game down a bit last week, but he wasn’t always accurate completing 19-of-36 throws for 242 yards and two touchdowns with no picks, and while he led the team with 59 rushing yards and a score, he only ran six times. He has to be even better this week to be ready for the swarming Horned Frogs the week after.
What Will Happen: Buffalo is going to be decent and won’t just roll over and be steamrolled over. The defense will make a few big stops, but there won’t be enough of them and there won’t be an answer for Griffin.
CFN Prediction: Baylor 31 … Buffalo 17 … Line: Baylor -16.5
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 2
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Louisiana Tech (1-0) at Texas A&M (1-0) Sept. 11, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … If everything works as planned and each team does what it wants to, this could be the highest scoring, wildest shootout of the weekend. There’s one problem: Louisiana Tech doesn’t quite have the pieces in place to do what new head coach Sonny Dykes wants. Dykes comes in with a Texas Tech mentality, but it’s going to take a little while for everything to click the way it’s supposed to. The offense didn’t exactly open it up against Grambling with just 336 total yards and only 196 coming through the air. Texas A&M didn’t have any issues last week blowing away Stephen F. Austin 48-7 with 529 yards of total offense in the breather. The Aggies are equipped to start bombing away and put points on the board, but Tech has to show it’s ready under Dykes to keep up the pace and it has to buck history. The Bulldogs have gotten seven chances against the Aggies since 1981, and they haven’t even come close with A&M winning each in a blowout.
Why Louisiana Tech Might Win: All the talk and all the focus is about the offense, but the Tech defensive back seven might be the team’s biggest strength. The linebacking corps has a great group of active veterans that can produce against anyone, while the secondary is aggressive and will win its share of battles. There might not be much the defense can do if the Aggies get rolling, but there should be a few stops early on and it’s not going to be a total bloodletting unless …
Why Texas A&M Might Win: … the Tech defensive line doesn’t produce. This is one of the team’s bigger works in progress, and while A&M isn’t going to pull a Wisconsin and line up and flatten the Bulldogs, the potential for big rushing production is there. With so much turnover, just being functional is the goal for the front four, but to hang around with a team as dangerous as A&M, there has to be pressure in the backfield to throw off the timing of the attack.
What To Watch Out For: Dykes and offensive coordinator Tony Franklin have brought the Air Raid attack to Ruston with the hope of cranking up the passing game, but that won’t work if QB Ross Jenkins doesn’t get time. A&M only came up with one sack against Stephen F. Austin, and now it could be even harder to generate a pass rush with star DE Von Miller trying to get over a sprained ankle. Considering the light hasn’t gone on yet for the Bulldog attack, any disruption could grind things to a halt.
What Will Happen: The Aggie offense will sputter a bit early, but the defense will pick up the slack and keep Tech from consistently moving the chains. And then the run will come as Jerrod Johnson throws a slew of scoring passes late in the second and early in the third to break the game wide open.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 38 … Louisiana Tech 13 … Line: Texas A&M -18.5
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 2
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Wyoming (1-0) at Texas (1-0) Sept. 11, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … As if preparing for Texas isn’t hard enough, Wyoming will go into the game with a heavy heart after losing freshman linebacker Ruben Narcisse in a car accident this week. The Cowboys hosted the Longhorns last year and were thumped 41-10, but it took a little while for the game to open up. This year, UW has to hope that Texas comes out as flat as it did in last week’s 34-17 win over Rice. There was never any threat of losing, but the passing game didn’t exactly click, the defense wasn’t it’s normal brick wall, and it took a defensive score to spark the way to the W. Wyoming also struggled, but it had problems with an FCS team, Southern Utah. It wasn’t exactly the spark the program was looking for with Texas this week and Boise State to follow, and it’s going to take a special set of circumstances and an all-timer of a performance to keep this close. Texas can afford to go through the motions a bit as it tries to work on balancing out the attack, but everything needs to be ready before going to Texas Tech next week.
Why Wyoming Might Win: If Texas plays like it did against Rice, UW has a shot. It’s going to take several takeaways that a stingy Longhorn offense aren’t likely to give up, and it’s going to take a phenomenal game from QB Austyn Carta-Samuels, who did everything he could to carry the team last week, and it’s going to take Texas being flat if this game is going to stay close. The UW secondary might turn out to be the best in the Mountain West, and it needs to keep the Texas downfield passing game under wraps.
Why Texas Might Win: Wyoming isn’t very good at playing football. It was great last season against the Weber States and Florida Atlantics of the world, but it did nothing against the teams with a pulse losing to Texas, Colorado, Air Force, Utah, BYU, and TCU by a combined score of 194 to 30. Last year is last year, but it’s not like the Cowboys are night and day better. The biggest problem is the offensive line that should have a nightmare of a time with Sam Acho and the Texas defensive front. Carta-Samuels might be running for his life.
What To Watch Out For: Coming into the season, Cody Johnson emerged from the pack to become the main back for the Texas ground game. While he ran for 59 yards, it took 15 carries to get them and he was ineffective from short yardage. Out goes Johnson as the main man, and in steps Tre Newton, a 6-0, 200-pounder who’s a strong runner and a great blocker. After leading the team with 61 yards on 18 carries, but with three touchdowns, he’ll get his chance to be the main man.
What Will Happen: Texas will stick with the plan to try to balance out the attack and will keep trying to run the ball. While getting the win won’t be a problem, opening it up a bit to get the passing game going a bit better than it did against Rice is a must after last week’s yawner.
CFN Prediction: Texas 45 … Wyoming 10 … Line: Texas -29.5
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 2
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Missouri State (1-0) at Kansas State (1-0) Sept. 11, 7:10

Here’s The Deal … Missouri State is a decent Missouri Valley Conference team that could provide a bit more than a light scrimmage for a Kansas State team coming off a nice win over UCLA. The Wildcats struggled through a 31-22 win that went down to the last Daniel Thomas breakaway touchdown run, and with the Big 12 opener against Iowa State up next, the more rest the stars can get, after a good first half, the better. But MSU has a good offense that blew through Eastern Kentucky last week in a 31-9, and with just enough playmakers to put a few points on the board, Kansas State will have to try.
Why Missouri State Might Win: The KSU offense did a great job of paving the way for a big day from Thomas, but it struggled in pass protection allowing six sacks that killed the anemic passing game. The Wildcats cranked out 313 rushing yards and three scores, but they only threw for 64 yards and aren’t likely to go wild on the Bear secondary. Against Eastern Kentucky, MSU ripped off six sacks and ten tackles for loss and will sell out to try to get into the backfield.
Why Kansas State Might Win: Yeah, the KSU passing game might not be able to take advantage of a mediocre Bear secondary, but the ground attack should do a far better job of pounding the ball than Eastern Kentucky did. MSU allowed just 35 rushing yards, with the great-looking net being helped by the six sacks, but the Kansas State front line is a different story and will be far more physical and far more effective. Thomas was able to run for 234 yards, but No. 2 back William Powell also had a strong day averaging 12 yards per carry on 72 yards and a score. MSU might have a few nice playmakers up on the defensive front, led by LB Antoine Wilkinson, but there aren’t enough of them.
What To Watch Out For: Thomas is going to be a statistical superstar all season long. With size, speed, and workhorse ability, he can do a little bit of everything and is also a passing threat after serving as a dual-threat option at NW Mississippi JC. KSU is 5-1 when he runs for 100 yards or more, and that includes last week’s tremendous 28-carry, 234-yard, two score day including a closing run to put the game away. He should pad the stats, at least in the first half, this week.
What Will Happen: KSU won’t get the passing game going, but the ground attack will roll for 300 yards for a typical Bill Snyder-team blowout over an FCS team.
CFN Prediction: Kansas State 48 … Missouri State 14 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 1
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Texas Tech (1-0) at New Mexico (1-0) Sept. 11, 8:00

Here’s The Deal … New Mexico beat Texas Tech 27-24 in a stunning upset in 2004. Times have changed. The program went from playing from going 9-4 in 2007 and going to the New Mexico Bowl, to going 5-20 since and losing 16 of its last 17 games. As if the nightmares of last year weren’t embarrassing enough, both on the field and in the coaching staff, starting the season with a 72-0 loss to a rebuilding Oregon team makes things worse. Head coach Mike Locksley will have to come up with a few new tricks in the bag to keep up with yet another high-powered offense. Last week it was the Duck ground game, and this week it’s the Texas Tech passing game. Only at Texas Tech could a 359-yard passing day be seen as a bit underwhelming, but it was a rough game against SMU with 13 unanswered Mustang points making it interesting. The fun continues next week for New Mexico with Utah coming to Albuquerque, while the Red Raiders get their date with Texas.
Why New Mexico Might Win: You’d never know it from what happened last week, but New Mexico really does have a decent defensive line. It got picked apart by the Oregon running game, but there’s just enough talent up front to expect a big improvement right away. Of course, the production can’t go anywhere but up. The only real chance the Lobos have of making this interesting is to hope Texas Tech is already game-planning for the Longhorns. While New Mexico might be on the field, the Red Raiders’ heads are going to be on next week.
Why Texas Tech Might Win: The running game. It’s Texas Tech so the passing game is going to wing it around 50 times, but new head man Tommy Tuberville wants to get the ground attack going to balance things out a bit. With star linebacker Carmen Messina hurting with an ankle injury, the Lobo run defense that gave up 369 yards on the ground will have an even harder time against a Red Raider running game that will spread things out and find the holes. Get Baron Batch in space, and look out. He only ran for 52 yards on 15 carries against SMU, but he could have a huge day next week.
What To Watch Out For: Alright, New Mexico, let’s start with what might potentially work. QB B.R. Holbrook got a little bit of playing time as a true freshman, and he was thrown to the wolves last week in Eugene and had a nightmare of a time completing 11-of-24 passes for 70 yards with two interceptions. He has a good, live arm, and he has to show it off by pushing the ball down the field when he’s not getting flattened by Brian Duncan, the Texas Tech end/linebacker who dominated SMU in his first game in a hybrid role.
What Will Happen: The horror, the horror. New Mexico will score, but Texas Tech will score a lot. It’s not going to be a repeat of Oregon, but the Lobos are going to be in for another long day.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 58 … New Mexico 7 … Line: 2
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … Texas Tech -24.5
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