2010 Pac 10 Fearless Predictions
Week 2 ... Sept. 11, Part 2
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California
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Oregon
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Fearless Predictions
- Sept. 11 (Stanford at
UCLA)
- Sept. 4
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Sept. 4, Part 2
Montana State (1-0) at Washington State (0-1) Sept. 11, 7:00 ET
Here’s The Deal … New year. Same old Wazzu. Progress was promised in Paul Wulff’s third season in the Palouse, but none was evident in the opener, a disastrous 65-17 loss at Oklahoma State. Time is quickly running out on this staff, which needs to capitalize on this week’s visit from an FCS team because it might be its best chance to win a game in 2010. Montana State spent its opening weekend treating Division II Fort Lewis like a speed bag, cruising to a 59-10 victory. The Bobcats are a contender out of the Big Sky Conference, needing a sharper passing attack to improve their chances of earning a spot in the playoffs.
Why Montana State Might Win: The Bobcats sport the kind of balanced offense that’s going to give Washington State trouble. At best, the Cougars harbor a Big Sky-caliber defense, so Montana State should feel right at home in Martin Stadium. It has all kinds of offensive options, including rising QB Denarius McGhee and the loaded backfield of Orenzo Davis, CJ Palmer, and Cody Kirk. On the other side of the ball, the defense doesn’t give up much ground, leading the conference in sacks and run D a season ago.
Why Washington State Might Win: The Achilles’ heel of the Montana State defense is its secondary, which the Cougars are aiming to exploit. Hope on offense comes from second-year QB Jeff Tuel, who’ll get more time than he had in Stillwater last Saturday. That extra tick or two will give him the time he needs to set his feet and spot big Jared Karstetter, Gino Simone, and rookie Marquess Wilson, who was sharp catching four balls for 108 yards and a touchdown in his debut.
What To Watch Out For: While Wazzu will lean on Tuel’s arm for much of the season, it still wants to establish the run in order to find balance and extend drives. The Cougars are thrilled to have back James Montgomery, the former Cal transfer who’s made it all the way back from a serious knee injury. He showed flashes with nine carries for 37 yards, and should get at least 20 touches in a game that won’t be so lopsided so early.
What Will Happen: Washington State is better than a year ago. It just wasn’t evident against a far superior Oklahoma State team. This weekend will give the Cougars a much better chance to showcase some of the young players who ditched redshirts and earned letters in 2009. Seizing a rare and much-needed moment to win a game, they’ll ride a balanced attack, getting two touchdowns apiece from Tuel and Montgomery in a hard-fought victory.
CFN Prediction: Washington State 34 … Montana State 28 … Line: No Line
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 1.5
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Northern Arizona (1-0) at Arizona State (1-0) Sept. 11, 10:00 ET
Here’s The Deal … As expected, Arizona State took care of business in the opener, pounding lowly Portland State, 54-9. The September tour through the Big Sky Conference continues with this week’s visit from Northern Arizona. In other words, no one will have any idea whether the Sun Devils have made gains until next weekend’s trip to Madison to face ranked Wisconsin. Besides the base level need for victories, the first two games does give Dennis Erickson a chance to test drive his new up-tempo, no-huddle offense. The Lumberjacks took their turn playing schoolyard bully in Week 1 as well, trampling Division II Western New Mexico, 48-0. While not considered a threat to win a conference title in 2010, they did play Arizona well last September, falling 34-17.
Why Northern Arizona Might Win: The Lumberjacks boast one of the highest-scoring offenses in the FCS. Traditionally spurred by a high-octane passing game, Northern Arizona will mix in more runs this season. Oh, Michael Herrick is still going to take his shots downfield in the passing game. However, after true freshman Zach Bauman rumbled for 167 yards and four scores on 22 carries, this offense is going to be less predictable and more balanced than at any time in recent years.
Why Arizona State Might Win: Northern Arizona will get after the quarterback with Isaac Bond and Brandon Vance, yet continues to struggle when the ball is in the air. That’ll be an open invitation for the Sun Devils to take the fast-paced offense to the next level. QB Steven Threet has his first game under his belt, going 14-of-21 for 239 yards, two touchdowns, and a pick. He’ll have his choice of open receivers, ranging from Aaron Pflugrad in the slot and Kerry Taylor on the outside to Deantre Lewis out of the backfield. When Arizona State wants to bring down the hammer, it’ll hand the ball to 217-pound RB Cameron Marshall.
What To Watch Out For: Bauman had wide lanes to run through last Thursday. This weekend? Not so much. Arizona State has a solid defense, but is particularly stout up the middle. With Vontaze Burfict at linebacker and Lawrence Guy and Saia Falahola at defensive tackle, Northern Arizona will have to travel outside the tackles if it plans to move the chains on the ground.
What Will Happen: If Arizona State is taking a step up in competition, it’s a small one. Northern Arizona has more talent than Portland State, but not so much that it’ll get the Sun Devils battled-tested for the rest of September. They’ll use this final tune-up to tweak the offense and begin building depth by inserting second and third-teamers before the start of the final quarter.
CFN Prediction: Arizona State 42 … Northern Arizona 17 … Line: X
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 1.5
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The Citadel (1-0) vs. Arizona (1-0) Sept. 11, 10:00 ET
Here’s The Deal … While it didn’t get a ton of attention last Friday night, Arizona discretely enjoyed a terrific start to the new campaign. Sure, the 41-2 manhandling was against Toledo, but it did come on the road and, unlike many major programs, wasn’t at the expense of an FCS opponent. The Wildcats played about as error-free as a team could this early in the season, which had to make Mike Stoops and his assistants feel good about their offseason preparation in all phases of the game. The Citadel had few problems with Division II Chowan, scoring seven first-half touchdowns before putting on the brakes. The Bulldogs are trying to rebound from last year’s 4-7, facing an uphill climb in the always-tough Southern Conference.
Why The Citadel Might Win: As good as the Arizona D was a week ago, was it the beginning of a trend or a fluke? This is still a group that’s adjusting to a slew of changes on that side of the ball. The Bulldogs will test the ‘Cats on the ground with a mixture of Terrell Dallas and Van Dyke Jones, who came on late in his rookie year. As a change-of-pace, The Citadel will sprinkle in some passes from Matthew Thompson, who was sharp in the first game, completing 5-of-6 for 127 yards and three touchdowns.
Why Arizona Might Win: If the defense regresses even the slightest bit, the offense will be there to pick up the slack. QB Nick Foles appears ready to contend for All-Pac-10 honors, carving up the Rockets for 360 yards and two scores on 32-of-37 passing. He’s surrounded by quality weapons, like WR Juron Criner and RB Nic Grigsby, who’ll have few problems solving the Bulldog defense. It’d quality as a big surprise if The Citadel has any luck penetrating a senior-laden offensive line featuring all-star candidates in C Colin Baxter and LT Adam Grant.
What To Watch Out For: Whatever concern Arizona had about its new linebackers was dialed down following the opener. Weakside starter Paul Vassallo deserves a lot of the credit after making a team-high 10 tackles and generally being around the ball all night. In his first game removed from Sierra (Calif.) Community College, the 6-3, 240-pounder looks like a keeper for the Wildcats.
What Will Happen: Arizona won’t be truly challenged until next Saturday’s visit from Iowa, so it’ll use the home opener to build depth and hasten the assimilation process on defense. Just because the outcome will never be in doubt doesn’t mean this isn’t a big week in Tucson. The ‘Cats are hoping to use it as an audition for the battle with the Hawkeyes, which is going to be enormous on so many levels.
CFN Prediction: Arizona 48 … The Citadel 10 … Line: X
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 1
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Virginia (1-0) at USC (1-0) Sept. 11, 10:30 ET
Here’s The Deal … USC and Virginia both won their openers over smaller programs, but the outcomes were anything but expected. While the Trojans defeated Hawaii, 49-36, on opening night, the poor play of the defense wound up being the story, trumping the debut of Lane Kiffin on the sidelines. It wasn’t as if they lacked motivation because of NCAA sanctions or a tumultuous offseason. They just weren’t very good, which caught a lot of people by surprise. The Cavaliers took the opposite road on Saturday, raising a few eyebrows by avoiding the Richmond landmine and pulling away late for a 34-13 win in Mike London’s debut. Although a rare trip to the West Coast presents an entirely different set of challenges, it’ll also give Virginia a chance to measure itself against one of the country’s most prominent programs.
Why Virginia Might Win: The early-season play of the USC defense, which gave up 588 yards to Hawaii and tackled poorly, lends hope to the Cavalier attack. These guys performed surprisingly well versus a feisty Spider defense, getting 283 yards passing from Marc Verica and 114 yards rushing and four scores from physical RB Keith Payne. Plus, Verica was sacked just once, creating some cautious optimism about a patchwork O-line. Virginia has one of the ACC’s best defensive backfields, featuring next-level CB Ras-I Dowling, and will match up well with the Trojan passing game.
Why USC Might Win: While Dowling & Co. will make the Trojan receivers work for their receptions, it doesn’t mean QB Matt Barkley won’t have success Saturday night. Somewhat lost in Thursday’s mediocre team effort was the play of the sophomore, who threw five touchdown passes and is clearly on the same page as star WR Ronald Johnson. If Virginia can’t get a push up front, a problem a year ago, it’ll allow backs Marc Tyler and Allen Bradford to get to the second level untouched. The Cavalier O-line may have gotten a passing grade versus Richmond, but Jurrell Casey and the rest of the Troy linemen represent a completely different challenge for this group.
What To Watch Out For: Denied in the opener, USC fans get their first opportunity to witness the play of true freshman RB Dillon Baxter, the spring wunderkind. As if the Trojan offense needs more weapons, the rookie has already been drawing comparisons to … never mind. He’s going to get some opportunities, and if the blocking is there, has the hips and the blinding speed to electrify the Coliseum crowd.
What Will Happen: USC has more on-field issues than anyone anticipated just a few weeks ago. Still, will Virginia be able to capitalize? The Trojan D is a mess, but after being dressed down by the media and the coaches, don’t expect a repeat performance of last Thursday night; not by a questionable Cav offense. It’ll give a more inspired effort, combining with a couple of Barkley touchdown passes for a comfortable win.
CFN Prediction: USC 45 … Virginia 13 … Line: USC -19
Must See Rating: Boardwalk Empire – 5 … Going the Distance - 1 … 2.5
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- Sept. 11 (Stanford at
UCLA)