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2010 Big 12 Fearless Picks - Nov. 6, BU-Ok St
Baylor RB Jay Finley
Baylor RB Jay Finley
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 4, 2010


Baylor vs. Oklahoma State is the biggest game of the week? The Bears and Jay Finley are deep in the hunt for the Big 12 South title, but first they have to get by the Cowboys in what should be a wild shootout. Check out the CFN Fearless Prediction on the November 6th Big 12 games.

2010 Big 12 Fearless Predictions

Week 10 ... Nov. 6 Games

Big 12
North
Colorado | Iowa St | Kansas | Kansas State | Missouri | Nebraska
South Baylor | Oklahoma | Oklahoma State | Texas | Texas A&M | Texas Tech

- More College Football Picks (and NFL, too)

Big 12 Fearless Predictions 
- Oct. 30 | Oct. 23 | Oct. 16 | Oct. 9  | Oct. 2
- Sept. 25 | Sept. 18 | Sept. 11 | Sept. 4

- Nov. 6, Part 2 (Oklahoma-Texas A&M) 

CFN Big 12 Predictions: SU:57-12    ATS: 38-21-1

GAME OF THE WEEK

Baylor (7-2) at Oklahoma State (7-1) Nov. 6, 12:30, FSN

Here’s The Deal … 1-13 vs. Oklahoma State since joining the Big 12, Baylor is looking to keep breaking through ceilings and bucking trends as it becomes one of the most improbable stories of the 2010 season. The winner of this game will still be deep in the hunt for the Big 12 South title with the Bears coming off a huge win at Texas as part of a three-game winning streak to stay alive. With home games against Texas A&M and Oklahoma to follow, the spotlight will be on if they can pull off the win in a shootout, while the Cowboys still have to go to Texas before a free space date at Kansas and the rivalry showdown against the Sooners. If nothing else, these two will be jockeying for position for a top Big 12 bowl, and it’s likely that the winner will end up somewhere in the top four in the overall conference pecking order.

OSU’s offense continues to be the best in the Big 12 with a devastating passing game and a strong ground attack, but the bloom was off the team’s rose a little bit a few weeks ago after a 51-41 loss to Nebraska. The offense worked, but the defense didn’t come up with a stop against the Husker passing game. With a rebound win over Kansas State, OSU got back on track should be favored on the road in the following two weeks with a win over the high-octane Bears. The pass defense will give up yards in chunks, but the offense gets them back immediately. Meanwhile, BU has been terrific since a loss to Texas Tech. The defense has gone bye-bye at times, but the brilliance of QB Robert Griffin and RB Jay Finley have made up for it with three tight wins in a row. Playing like a team with supreme confidence, managing to always fight through the adversity in Austin last week to come up with the big plays needed, it should be able to overcome the inevitable haymakers thrown by OSU. However, it’s going to take a lot of points, and a lot of home runs, to keep up the pace. Get your popcorn ready; this is going to be fun.

Why Baylor Might Win: Robert Griffin. Finley has been a key piece of the puzzle with three straight 100-yard games including a 250-yard outing against Kansas State, but the play of Griffin gives the Bears a shot against anyone. He’s making every big throw, and overcoming the few mistakes he’s making, with an interception in each of the last three games, with sharp drives. After running for 137 yards against Colorado, he threw for 404 yards and four touchdowns against Kansas State, and then last week he threw for two scores and ran for a touchdown against Texas. Basically, he’ll do what he needs to depending on how the game is going. He’s adaptable. The Oklahoma State secondary has had major problems, and while it doesn’t give up a ton of big plays, it gets picked apart by giving up throws underneath. Griffin, if he’s patient, should be able to dink and dunk all day long. Defensively, the secondary gave up four passing touchdowns to Texas tech, two to TCU, and three against everyone else.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: The Baylor defensive numbers aren’t all that bad, but that’s because there haven’t been a lot of battles against teams with an offense. TCU got a 21-of-23 day from Andy Dalton, and the team rolled up 566 total yards. Texas Tech was able to crank out 635 yards with 462 through the air. With all the weapons back, OSU should be able to match the Horned Frog and Red Raider success with a balanced attack that’ll hang up at least 500 yards. Baylor’s defensive front has done a decent job, but it isn’t steady at getting to the quarterback and it doesn’t do nearly enough to make plays behind the line and it’s due to get gouged by someone who can run the ball. Baylor doesn’t make a ton of mistakes, but OSU manages to take the ball away from just about everyone with 22 takeaways so far including three picks in last week’s win over Kansas State and at least two takeaways in every game but the lone loss to Nebraska.
What To Watch Out For: A bit overshadowed by other stars in the Big 12, and by his own passing game, Kendall Hunter has been the steadying force for the Cowboy attack running for 100 yards or more in every game but the blowout win over Tulsa when he was only needed for 11 carries. Coming off a year when he couldn’t get healthy, he has been a workhorse with 21 carries or more in every game but one, and he has been unstoppable even against the best running for 201 yards and two scores against Nebraska. While he should be in for another big game, the spotlight will be on Justin Blackmon, the nation’s most productive receiver, after missing last week suspended for after being arrested for speeding and a suspected DWI (though he hasn’t been convicted in the contested case).
What Will Happen: Shootout, shootout, shootout. Expect 1,000 yards of total offense as each team flies up and down the field, and it might be a case of the team with the ball in its hands last winning. As good as Griffin and Baylor are – they’re both the real deal – Oklahoma State has too much firepower and will show it all off in an impressive win.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 44 … Baylor 34 … Line: Oklahoma State -7
Must See Rating: In Treatment: Adele – 5 … In Treatment: Frances - 1 … 4
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Colorado (3-5) at Kansas (2-6) Nov. 6, 2:00,

Here’s The Deal … The two worst teams in the Big 12 each have to look at this game as a needed win, or else it’ll take an upset to come up with another victory. Kansas started out the season poorly with the 6-3 clunker to North Dakota State, and it has managed to get worse as the season has gone on scoring just 40 points over the last four games and now coming closer than double digits of anyone in the Big 12 so far. With no defense, less offense, and injuries starting to become an issue, KU’s nightmare could still get worse with road games at Nebraska and Missouri and a home date against Oklahoma State to close. Things aren’t quite as bad for Colorado, even though it’s on a four-game losing streak and Dan Hawkins is a heartbeat away from getting canned. With winnable games against Iowa State and Kansas State up next at home, as bad as this season has been, the Buffs can still go to a bowl if they play up to their capabilities over the next three weeks. First, they have to make the layup.
Why Colorado Might Win: Kansas doesn’t score. In the two wins, KU has found a way to put up 28 points or more, and the offense has scored 16 points or fewer in the six losses. Colorado’s defense hasn’t been a rock, but it’s good enough to hold up again a punchless Jayhawk attack that doesn’t have anything working. The run defense has been decent and KU doesn’t have a passing game to worry about. It’ll take something special to not win the turnover margin against a Jayhawk defense that doesn’t take the ball away. KU has only recovered three fumbles so far and has only picked off two passes with no interceptions in the last five games.
Why Kansas Might Win: If the KU ground game was ever going to work, this might be the week. The Colorado defensive front isn’t bad, but the linebacking corps is in big trouble. The Buffs are without top tackler Jon Major to a knee injury, and he was sorely missed last week against Oklahoma. Now they have to hope Michael Sipili can get back from a shoulder stinger. The team’s top tackler, he needs to be on the field. Offensively, it’s not like Colorado is putting up points in bunches averaging a mere 18.75 points per game and scoring more than 30 points just once. There’s also the road game issue. Colorado has played three true road games (the Colorado State game was a neutral site date) and has gone 0-3 losing by a combined score of 121-17.
What To Watch Out For: Both teams are fighting through quarterback problems, and neither backup did much when they got their chance. With KU’s Jordan Webb suffering through a shoulder injury, Quinn Meachem stepped in and struggled completing 22-of-33 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown with an interception in the loss to Iowa State. He wasn’t allowed to air it out at all and kept everything underneath. This week against the bad Buff secondary, he needs to start pushing the ball deep. With Tyler Hansen out for the year, Cody Hawkins got the job all to himself and he stunk against OU completing just 17-of-44 passes for 187 yards. He’s 0-for-2 against KU, throwing two picks in a 19-14 loss as a freshman, and throwing two more interceptions in a 8-of-22 performance in a loss as a sophomore.
What Will Happen: Hawkins will be fine. Rodney Stewart will run for 100 yards, Hawkins will be efficient with three touchdown passes and no mistakes, and all of a sudden, Colorado will start thinking about the bowl possibilities.
CFN Prediction: Kansas 27 … Kansas 16 … Line: Colorado -9
Must See Rating: In Treatment: Adele – 5 … In Treatment: Frances - 1 … 2
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Nebraska (7-1) at Iowa State (5-4) Nov. 6, 3:30, ABC

Here’s The Deal … And now the spotlight is back on. After dominating Missouri in a strong 31-17 win, the Huskers are in the national title hunt again as the second-highest ranked one-loss team (behind Alabama) in the BCS standing. There’s a dangerous game at Texas A&M, and Colorado is always quirky, but realistically, there shouldn’t be too many problems over the final month if Nebraska plays up to it capabilities. However, Iowa State could be a bit sticky if it comes up with its best game of the season. Just when it seemed like the Cyclones were going into the tank with blowout losses to Utah and Oklahoma, the Cyclones came up with a stunning win at Texas the week after the Longhorns stuffed the Huskers. After taking advantage of the light scrimmage against Kansas, Iowa State is back in the bowl hunt needing a win in one of its final three games to become bowl eligible, but there’s a chance to be thinking even bigger. As crazy as it might sound, Iowa State will win the Big 12 North if it wins out against Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri. This team isn’t good enough to do it, but it’s interesting enough to screw up the Huskers if they’re not focused … like last year. In one of the ugliest games of the 2009 season, ISU beat Nebraska 9-7 in a turnover fest. It was the Huskers’ last loss until the Big 12 Championship.
Why Nebraska Might Win: Iowa State’s run defense is mediocre. Thanks for playing! The defensive front doesn’t generate any semblance of pressure with no pass rush and few tackles for loss, and the Husker ground attack should be able to take advantage. Taylor Martinez is back from the ankle injury that knocked him out of the Missouri game, and he and Roy Helu, Jr. should combine to hit home run after home run. The Cyclones did a nice job against Northern Illinois in the opener, holding the best team in the MAC to 156 rushing yards, but everyone else who can run has been able to with Iowa, Kansas State, Utah, and Oklahoma all rolling for over 200 yards with ease. Offensively, Iowa State has the Big 12’s worst passing attack, and it might struggle to get 100 yards against the nation’s No. 1 pass efficiency defense.
Why Iowa State Might Win: The Nebraska defense can be run in if a team sticks with it. The problem is that the Huskers might be up 14-0 right away on two Martinez carries, but if an offense can be patient, the ground game will work. Texas was able to run for 209 yards when Garrett Gilbert channeled his inner Vince Young, and Oklahoma State, Washington, and Kansas State were able to run well before having to start bombing away to try to come back. The Iowa State running game isn’t special, but it has the combination of QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson to get moving on the ground. Can the Cyclones stick with it and can the defense hold up long enough for everything to work? That’s going to be the question. Turnovers shouldn’t be an issue as ISU leads the league in turnover margin giving it away just 11 times this year.
What To Watch Out For: Helu has always been the overshadowed back. He ran for close to 2,000 yards with 17 touchdowns in his first two seasons, but he was always playing second fiddle to the great defense in terms of national recognition. This year, Martinez is the one everyone is talking about, but Helu continues to produce with three 100-yard games in the first five dates of the year before coming up with his magnum opus. It takes something special to come up with the greatest rushing performance in Nebraska history, but he carried the attack with 307 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Missouri. Dinged up last year, he was limited in the loss to Iowa State running for just 24 yards, and he was held to 66 yards as a freshman. Martinez is back and will be the focal point of the attack, but Helu makes the offense special.
What Will Happen: Iowa State will run well for about two drives, and then the Nebraska floodgates will open. Two home runs for touchdowns will change things in a hurry as the Cyclones will try to start passing, but with no success. The Huskers won’t roll in a blowout, but they’ll be comfortable.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 38 … Iowa State 16 … Line: Nebraska -19
Must See Rating: In Treatment: Adele – 5 … In Treatment: Frances - 1 … 2.5
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- Nov. 6, Part 2 (Oklahoma-Texas A&M)