2011 Gator Bowl
Michigan (7-5) vs.
Miss St (8-4)
Saturday, January 1st, 1:30, ESPN2
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By Pete Fiutak
Everyone would like a bowl win, and several teams and coaches need a bowl win. And then there’s Rich Rodriguez and Michigan who really, REALLY need a bowl win.
It might not seem like it, but this has actually been a decent year in the progression in Ann Arbor. No, Michigan isn’t at Ohio State’s level, and there are a slew of major issues from the defense to Rodriguez to Denard Robinson not being able to stay on the field in one piece, but going 7-5 with an offense that at times is jaw-droppingly unstoppable showed that things might be on the right track if, and it’s a big if, the defense can show up.
There are two ways to look at Michigan right now. Either the Rodriguez experience is just too weird and it’s time for the Wolverines to cut bait and get a different elite head man, which is what RichRod was coming from West Virginia, or the program is half full and the offense works, now all the team needs is a little bit of defense and the potential is there to be great.
The big matzah ball hanging over the program is the Harbaugh issue. No matter what happens against Mississippi State, short of a Woody Hayes-Charlie Bauman moment, Rodriguez isn’t going to be fired just to be fired. Michigan isn’t going to can the head man and then go on a search. If this happens, it’ll be because there’s someone in mind to step in right away and turn things around tomorrow. There’s no time and no patience for another three-year project considering the Wolverines might be so close to being really good again.
Mississippi State is on the opposite end of the spectrum with head coach Dan Mullen being locked up with a fat new contract extension, and while he might not have the horses or the program to make MSU another Alabama or Florida, he has made a huge impact in a short time.
This isn’t the MSU under Sylvester Croom, getting by with a strong defense, takeaways, and good bounces, his spread offense is on the verge of becoming dangerous as he’s putting the pieces in place to make the program a player. The spread might not be as dynamic as Michigan’s attack, but it’s bruising, efficient, and effective.
The Bulldogs took advantage of a down year in the SEC, and even though the West was relatively strong, this was the program’s best regular season since 1999. The defense was great against the run, was terrific at getting behind the line, and the offense was good enough on the ground to plow past the mediocre. However, the only wins of note came against Florida and Georgia, who were hardly Florida and Georgia, and the battle with the Gators was an ugly 10-7 slugfest that could’ve gone either way. As good as the Bulldogs were this year record-wise, they went 1-4 in division play getting smoked by Alabama and LSU, but pushing Arkansas in double-overtime and giving Auburn its toughest game of the year, before the Iron Bowl, with a 17-14 heartbreaker. Now it’s time to come up with a big bowl win to make the year complete. A loss wouldn’t take away the luster of the successful year, but it would add fuel to the fire that MSU isn’t near as good as it needs to be to start thinking its among the SEC elite.
A loss would take away the luster for Michigan.
The team was exciting this year, for good and bad, and while it blasted Fiesta Bowl-bound Connecticut 30-10, and was able to get by Notre Dame, the signature win was a triple-overtime thriller against Illinois that was hardly a shining moment for the defense. The offense couldn’t keep up with Wisconsin, never showed up against Ohio State, and wasn’t enough in solid battles against Michigan State, Iowa, and Penn State. In this case, appearances really do matter, and a win with a halfway decent showing from the defense would do wonders for Rodriguez and would give him his first smooth offseason since arriving in Ann Arbor.
A win would also help reverse the miserable recent history of Michigan bowl appearances, beating Tim Tebow in Lloyd Carr’s last game in the 2008 Capital One, but losing the previous four games and five of the previous six. MSU has won three straight bowl games, but it has only been to three post-season games since 1999 with the 10-3 2007 Liberty Bowl win over UCF the only appearance since 2000. Both teams are well-motivated, both teams are going to care, and both are going to go full-tilt for the full sixty minutes. They should be able to keep up the recent tradition of good Gator Bowls.
Lost in the New Year’s Day shuffle with the Capital One and Outback more prestigious, the Gator has been every bit as good at times over the last few seasons highlighted by the 2008 Texas Tech thriller over Virginia and the 2007 West Virginia win over Georgia Tech. With the way these two run the ball, this should be worth hitting the couch for.
Players to Watch: There was a time in mid-October when Cam Newton was just coming on the radar and it was Denard Robinson’s Heisman to lose. The sophomore was unstoppable with a phenomenal first half of the season throwing for over 200 yards in four of the first six games and running for 104 yards or more in seven of the first eight games. But then he started getting dinged up, he started making more mistakes, and even though he threw for 2,316 yards and ran for 1,643, he was stunningly out of the Heisman chase. Mississippi State doesn’t have a home run hitter like Robinson, and now that he’s close to being healthy, although not 100%, he has to stand out and make this his game. If he can keep the mistakes to a minimum, he can win this game all by himself.
However, MSU LB Chris White will be in charge of trying to keep Robinson and the Wolverine machine in check. The 6-4, 250-pound former JUCO transfer doesn’t fly around to the ball, but he hits like a ton of bricks and he’ll make every stop he gets to. While White isn’t the same athletic playmaker that his running mate K.J. Wright is, he is great at closing when he gets in range. With 105 tackles on the year and six sacks, he’s used to shoot into the backfield as well as hold up against the run. He needs to have a double-digit stop game with most of the tackles coming near the line.
Healthy and ready to go for the Bulldog offense is junior Chris Relf, who has problems with a knee injury late in the season. Nowhere near as dynamic as Robinson, he’s a 6-4, 240-pound load who runs hard and is tough to bring down. While not the most polished passer, he improved late in the year throwing for 224 yards against Arkansas and 288 yards and three scores against Ole Miss. With two 100-yard games on the year, if all goes according to plan, he could make it three against the struggling Michigan defense.
Mississippi State will win if ... the running backs and Relf take control of the game from the start. MSU boasts three runners – Vick Ballard, Relf, and LaDarius Perkins – who ran for 500 yards or more with the 5-11, 210-pound Ballard the star of the show with 892 yards and three scores. Michigan has the athleticism to bottle up the MSU backs, but the defense can’t tackle and will whiff on way too many plays. The problem for the Wolverines will be that MSU occasionally runs the spread more like an option and they’ll likely overpursue on too many plays. With no push in the backfield, the Michigan defensive line has to keep the big runs to a minimum and has to force several third and long situations.
Defensively, MSU has to attack Robinson and the Wolverine runners before they get started. If Robinson has a hole or can get the defenders to commit before getting the ball to Vincent Smith or some of the over speedy Wolverine runners, vooooom. The Bulldogs are 14th in the nation in tackles for loss with White and all-star end Pernell McPhee regulars at getting behind the line on a consistent basis, and they need to bottle up Robinson to keep him from getting on the move. The goal is to get the ball out of No. 16’s hands as soon as possible.
Michigan will win if ... Mike Martin is the defensive MVP. The Wolverine defense might stink, but it’s not the junior’s fault as a rock of a nose guard who tries to make everything happen on his own. The 6-2, 294-pound nose tackle takes a beating with a shoulder problem last year and an ankle issue slowing him down over the last part of this year, but he’s still a disruptive force who needs to gum up the works on the inside and force Relf and the rest of the runners to the outside. The Wolverine linebackers fall for everything and have a problem being in the right position on a regular basis, but as long as the defensive front can make the Bulldogs work East-West more than North-South, the back seven should be able to clean up most of the running plays.
The biggest key for Michigan’s beleaguered defense will be takeaways, takeaways, takeaways. The D will give up yards, but if it can make up for it with forced errors, everything should be fine. Mississippi State’s offense has turned it over 20 times this year, but 12 of them came in the four losses with five interceptions thrown against LSU and three fumbles against Arkansas. In the eight wins, the Bulldogs turned it over more than once in just two games, Alcorn State and Ole Miss. Michigan’s D doesn’t force turnovers in bunches, but it has taken the ball away more than once in six games going 4-2.
What will happen: Michigan is going to show off the explosion. Mississippi State will pound away and will control the clock at times, but Robinson will hit a few home runs as the Wolverine offensive line comes up with its best performance since the win over Illinois. No, the UM defense isn’t going to suddenly turn into a brick wall, but it won’t be quite as awful as expected. This will be the reprieve that RichRod has been needing ever since taking over the job.
CFN Prediction: Michigan 27 … Mississippi State 20 ... Line: Mississippi State -5
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Confidence Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence Score: 97
OVERALL CONFIDENCE (35 most - 1 least): 27 out of 35
Pete Fiutak: Pick ATS - Michigan Pick Confidence -
10
- With all the craziness and all the controversy surrounding Rich Rodriguez, beating Mississippi State would be a major plus to show that things are headed in the right direction. Mississippi State came up with a tremendous year and can show that its style of spread offense is good enough to keep up against the high-powered Wolverines. Denard Robinson will be healthier than he has been all season long. That alone is reason to watch.
Richard Cirminiello: Pick ATS -
Michigan Pick Confidence -
13
- The Michigan D sort of caught a break with this match up. It’ll have a tough handling RB Vick Ballard and QB Chris Relf, but at least Mississippi State isn’t too scary in the passing game.
Matt Zemek: Pick ATS -
Mississippi State Pick Confidence -
16
- Rich Rodriguez could very well be coaching for his job. Okay, then: Welcome to Ann Arbor, Mr. Harbaugh. Wait a minute: Dan Mullen called on line two and said that he’s also coaching for his job in this game… his job at Florida in 2011 or perhaps at another “destination” program in 2012 or ’13. If Mississippi State is distracted, Michigan might win, which means RichRod stays and Harbaugh doesn’t leave the West Coast. HOLD ON! Some two-bit website said that Jon Gruden will coach Michigan in 2011 – it’s a DONE DEAL, I’m tellin’ ya. And OH, another website without real journalistic chops has JUST reported that Bob Stoops has been rumored for the job at Mississippi State, with Bo Pelini asking for permission from Donna Shalala to talk to Kenny Rogers about the Cam Newton situation. I’m so confused.
Russ Mitchell: Pick ATS -
Mississippi State Pick Confidence -
19
- Denard Robinson v. the MSU defense – ranked 20th against the run, but very suspect against the pass. This game will come down to MSU’s rushing attack. Look for the Bulldogs to grind out a win.
Barrett Sallee: Pick ATS -
Mississippi State Pick Confidence -
20
- If you’re a Mississippi State fan, you should be
ecstatic. A New Year’s Day Bowl against one of the
most storied teams in college football history. Not
bad for Dan Mullen in just his second year in
Starkvegas.
Gabe Harris: Pick ATS - Mississippi State
Pick Confidence -
27
Brian Harbach: Pick ATS -
Michigan Pick Confidence -
14
Matthew Smith: Pick ATS -
Mississippi State Pick Confidence -
18
Billy Gomila: Pick ATS -
Mississippi State Pick Confidence
- 4
Clucko (A coin flip): Pick ATS -
Mississippi State Pick Confidence
- 17
Gator Bowl History
2010 Florida State 33, West Virginia 21
2009 Nebraska 26, Clemson 21
2008
Texas Tech 31, Virginia 28
2007
W. Virginia 38, Georgia Tech 35
2006
Virginia Tech 35, Louisville 24
2005
Florida St 30, West Virginia 18
2004
Maryland 41, West Virginia 7
2003
NC State 28, Notre Dame 6
2002
Florida St 30, Virginia Tech 17
2001
Virginia Tech 41, Clemson 20
2000
Miami 28, Georgia Tech 13
1999
Georgia Tech 35, Notre Dame 28
1998
North Carolina 42, Virginia Tech 3
1997
North Carolina 20, West Virginia 13
1996
Syracuse 41, Clemson 0
1994
Tennessee 45, Virginia Tech 23
1993
Alabama 24, North Carolina 10
1992
Florida 27, NC State 10
1991 (Dec.)
Oklahoma 48, Virginia 14
1991 (Jan.)
Michigan 35, Mississippi 3
1989 (Dec.)
Clemson 27, West Virginia 7
1989 (Jan.)
Georgia 34, Michigan State 27
1987
LSU 30, South Carolina 13
1986
Clemson 27, Stanford 21
1985
Florida State 34, Oklahoma St 23
1984
Oklahoma State 21, South Carolina 14
1983
Florida 14, Iowa 6
1982
Florida St 31, West Virginia 12
1981
North Carolina 31, Arkansas 27
1980
Pitt 37, South Carolina 9
1979
North Carolina 17, Michigan 15
1978
Clemson 17, Ohio State 15
1977
Pitt 34, Clemson 3
1976
Notre Dame 20, Penn State 9
1975
Maryland 13, Florida 0
1974
Auburn 27, Texas 3
1973
Texas Tech 28, Tennessee 19
1972
Auburn 24, Colorado 3
1971 (Dec.)
Georgia 7, North Carolina 3
1970 (Jan.)
Auburn 35, Mississippi 28
1969
Florida 14, Tennessee 13
1968
Missouri 35, Alabama 10
1967
Florida State 17, Penn State 17
1966
Tennessee 18, Syracuse 12
1965 (Dec.)
Georgia Tech 31, Texas Tech 21
1965 (Jan.)
Florida State 36, Oklahoma 19
1963
North Carolina 35, Air Force 0
1962
Florida 17, Penn State 7
1961
Penn State 30, Georgia Tech 15
1960 (Dec.)
Florida 13, Baylor 12
1960 (Jan.)
Arkansas 14, Georgia Tech 7
1958
Mississippi 7, Florida 3
1957
Tennessee 3, Texas A&M 0
1956
Georgia Tech 21, Pitt 14
1955
Vanderbilt 25, Auburn 13
1954 (Dec.)
Auburn 33, Baylor 13
1954 (Jan.)
Texas Tech 35, Auburn 13
1953
Florida 14, Tulsa 13
1952
Miami 14, Clemson 0
1951
Wyoming 20, Wash. & Lee 0
1950
Maryland 20, Missouri 7
1949
Clemson 24, Missouri 23
1948
Georgia 20, Maryland 20
1947
Oklahoma 34, NC State 13
1946
Wake Forest 26, South Carolina 14
1936
Hardin-Simmons 14, New Mexico State 14