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2010 Compu-Picks - College

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Jan 14, 2011


The Compu-Picks model reviews and rates its picks over the course of 2011

As many of you know, compu-picks is a system designed to make picks. Primarily it makes ATS (against the spread) picks, though this year it also published a series of bowl confidence picks (SU and ATS). Here's how it did.

For the standard ATS picks, it went 124-108 for the year, a win percentage of 53.45%. It wasn't the system's best ATS year, though it was well above the number it needs to hit to make money even against full -110 type lines (52.4%). The bowl picks and year totals are posted in the below table.

ATS Picks

Week Team Opponent Confidence Line Wins Losses
16 Utah Boise St 2 17 0 2
16 Navy San Diego St 3 5 0 3
16 Tulsa Hawai`i 2 11 2 0
16 Missouri Iowa 1 -1 0 1
16 Illinois Baylor 1 1.5 1 0
16 Arizona Oklahoma St 5 6 0 5
16 Army SMU 5 8 5 0
16 Washington Nebraska 2 13.5 2 0
16 Notre Dame Miami FL 1 3 1 0
16 Florida St South Carolina 2 3 2 0
16 TCU Wisconsin 2 -2.5 0 2
16 Arkansas Ohio State 2 3.5 0 2
16 Oregon Auburn 5 3 0 0
16
16 This Week 1 2 1
16 2 6 6
16 3 0 3
16 4 0 0
16 5 5 5
16 Total 13 15
16 Season 1 9 11
16 2 38 24
16 3 24 27
16 4 28 16
16 5 25 30
16 Total 124 108

As previously noted, it made a series of bowl confidence picks, both SU and ATS ( link here ). By my calcluations, the ATS confidence picks went 354-223-53, a win percentage of 61.35% if you throw out the ties (you can check my numbers if you like, I'm pretty sure I didn't make a mistake). That is a VERY good win percentage, which basically means the system was extremely effective in the ATS picks that fell short of the level 1 confidence barrier this bowl season, since the system's normal ATS picks went only 13-15.

The system also made a series of SU confidence picks. As I promised to do earlier, I have put together a comparison table between compu-picks' bowl confidence pickset and various other publicly available systems: FEI; Phil Steele; Congrove; and using the Vegas lines as noted in the compu-picks confidence pick link (I used over/under as a secondary tie-breaker for games with the same spread). Compu-picks beat them all with 456 total points (though FEI essentially tied with 455), which would have hit the 99.2 percentile on ESPN's bowl challenge, which basically means that it did very well against the general public as well. Suffice it so say that compu-picks came through with a very impressive picking effort this bowl season. Also worth noting: the SEC board on CFN ran a bowl picking contest, straight up picks, no confidence. Out of 19 entries, compu-picks won that contest too, getting 23 of 35 games right.

For the sake of the record, the straight up confidence picks for compu-picks and the other publicly available systems is shown in the below table:

Compu-picks FEI
Team1 Team2 Winner Pick Conf Pick Conf
UTEP Brigham Young Brigham Young Brigham Young 29 Brigham Young 21
Northern Illinois Fresno St Northern Illinois Northern Illinois 11 Northern Illinois 28
Ohio Troy Troy Troy 8 Troy 8
Louisville Southern Miss Louisville Louisville 6 Louisville 24
Utah Boise St Boise St Boise St 32 Boise St 33
Navy San Diego St San Diego St Navy 4 Navy 27
Tulsa Hawai`i Tulsa Hawai`i 22 Hawai`i 4
Florida Int'l Toledo Florida Int'l Toledo 14 Florida Int'l 30
Georgia Tech Air Force Air Force Air Force 17 Air Force 10
North Carolina St West Virginia North Carolina St West Virginia 12 West Virginia 5
Missouri Iowa Iowa Missouri 21 Missouri 13
East Carolina Maryland Maryland Maryland 34 Maryland 32
Illinois Baylor Illinois Illinois 13 Illinois 31
Arizona Oklahoma St Oklahoma St Arizona 7 Oklahoma St 26
Army SMU Army Army 3 Army 6
Kansas St Syracuse Syracuse Kansas St 9 Syracuse 1
North Carolina Tennessee North Carolina North Carolina 16 North Carolina 29
Washington Nebraska Washington Nebraska 25 Nebraska 35
South Florida Clemson South Florida Clemson 19 Clemson 14
Notre Dame Miami FL Notre Dame Notre Dame 1 Miami FL 19
Central Florida Georgia Central Florida Georgia 24 Georgia 12
Florida St South Carolina Florida St Florida St 5 South Carolina 9
Northwestern Texas Tech Texas Tech Texas Tech 26 Texas Tech 2
Penn State Florida Florida Florida 18 Florida 17
Michigan St Alabama Alabama Alabama 33 Alabama 25
Michigan Mississippi St Mississippi St Mississippi St 28 Mississippi St 15
TCU Wisconsin TCU TCU 31 Wisconsin 11
Connecticut Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma 35 Oklahoma 34
Virginia Tech Stanford Stanford Stanford 20 Virginia Tech 3
Arkansas Ohio State Ohio State Arkansas 2 Arkansas 7
Middle Tennessee St Miami OH Miami OH Miami OH 23 Middle Tennessee St 16
Texas A&M LSU LSU LSU 10 LSU 23
Kentucky Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 30 Pittsburgh 22
Boston College Nevada Nevada Nevada 27 Nevada 18
Oregon Auburn Auburn Oregon 15 Auburn 20
Wins 456 Wins 455
Losses 174 Losses 175
Net 282 Net 280
Phil Steele Congrove Vegas
Team1 Team2 Winner Pick Conf Pick Conf Pick Conf
UTEP Brigham Young Brigham Young Brigham Young 28 Brigham Young 32 Brigham Young 32
Northern Illinois Fresno St Northern Illinois Fresno St 25 Northern Illinois 25 Northern Illinois 1
Ohio Troy Troy Ohio 1 Ohio 6 Troy 7
Louisville Southern Miss Louisville Louisville 3 Southern Miss 5 Louisville 15
Utah Boise St Boise St Boise St 11 Boise St 35 Boise St 35
Navy San Diego St San Diego St San Diego St 31 San Diego St 4 San Diego St 20
Tulsa Hawai`i Tulsa Hawai`i 15 Hawai`i 20 Hawai`i 31
Florida Int'l Toledo Florida Int'l Florida Int'l 10 Toledo 12 Toledo 2
Georgia Tech Air Force Air Force Air Force 16 Georgia Tech 2 Air Force 11
North Carolina St West Virginia North Carolina St West Virginia 22 West Virginia 22 West Virginia 12
Missouri Iowa Iowa Iowa 20 Iowa 10 Missouri 5
East Carolina Maryland Maryland Maryland 14 Maryland 16 Maryland 25
Illinois Baylor Illinois Baylor 18 Illinois 9 Baylor 6
Arizona Oklahoma St Oklahoma St Oklahoma St 4 Oklahoma St 23 Oklahoma St 23
Army SMU Army SMU 32 SMU 24 SMU 27
Kansas St Syracuse Syracuse Syracuse 8 Kansas St 13 Syracuse 4
North Carolina Tennessee North Carolina Tennessee 7 North Carolina 17 North Carolina 9
Washington Nebraska Washington Nebraska 30 Nebraska 33 Nebraska 33
South Florida Clemson South Florida Clemson 23 Clemson 8 Clemson 22
Notre Dame Miami FL Notre Dame Miami FL 2 Miami FL 15 Miami FL 18
Central Florida Georgia Central Florida Georgia 33 Georgia 14 Georgia 24
Florida St South Carolina Florida St South Carolina 13 Florida St 1 South Carolina 16
Northwestern Texas Tech Texas Tech Texas Tech 9 Texas Tech 28 Texas Tech 28
Penn State Florida Florida Florida 24 Florida 19 Florida 26
Michigan St Alabama Alabama Alabama 34 Alabama 34 Alabama 30
Michigan Mississippi St Mississippi St Mississippi St 19 Mississippi St 21 Mississippi St 21
TCU Wisconsin TCU TCU 6 TCU 27 TCU 10
Connecticut Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma 35 Oklahoma 30 Oklahoma 34
Virginia Tech Stanford Stanford Stanford 12 Stanford 3 Stanford 14
Arkansas Ohio State Ohio State Ohio State 29 Ohio State 26 Ohio State 19
Middle Tennessee St Miami OH Miami OH Middle Tennessee St 27 Middle Tennessee St 7 Miami OH 8
Texas A&M LSU LSU LSU 21 LSU 11 LSU 3
Kentucky Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 26 Pittsburgh 29 Pittsburgh 17
Boston College Nevada Nevada Nevada 5 Nevada 31 Nevada 29
Oregon Auburn Auburn Auburn 17 Oregon 18 Auburn 13
Wins 382 Wins 431 Wins 434
Losses 248 Losses 199 Losses 196
Net 134 Net 232 Net 238