The below table contains Compu-Picks "projections" for the 2010 season against the
2010 over/under lines. Since the model itself was created using historical data (though for a number of years, not just one),
you should certainly take these results with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, they appear compelling; had this system been in place last year,
it would have done extremely well against the preseason over/under win total lines. While it's impossible to say for
sure how well it will do in 2011, I am optimistic that it will do extremely well in its first true test.
| Team | Over/Under | Pick | Confidence | Wins | Losses |
| Florida State | 7.5 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 8 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 10.5 | Under | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Texas A&M | 7 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 8 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| West Virginia | 8.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Iowa | 8.5 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 7.5 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Brigham Young | 8 | Over | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | 4.5 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Oregon | 9 | Over | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Stanford | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| UCLA | 5.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Florida | 10 | Under | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 7 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nevada | 9.5 | Under | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Subtotal | | | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| | | | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| | | | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| | | | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | | | | 21 | 7 |
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling.
Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history,
as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings
are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team
by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.
2011 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
