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Compu-Picks: 2010 Over/Under Backcast

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Jul 24, 2011


2011 Compu-Picks 2011 Preview: Looking at how the model would have done in 2010

The below table contains Compu-Picks "projections" for the 2010 season against the 2010 over/under lines. Since the model itself was created using historical data (though for a number of years, not just one), you should certainly take these results with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, they appear compelling; had this system been in place last year, it would have done extremely well against the preseason over/under win total lines. While it's impossible to say for sure how well it will do in 2011, I am optimistic that it will do extremely well in its first true test.


Team Over/Under Pick Confidence Wins Losses
Florida State 7.5 Under 1 0 1
North Carolina 8 Over 1 0 1
Oklahoma 10.5 Under 2 2 0
Texas A&M 7 Over 1 1 0
Cincinnati 8 Under 3 3 0
West Virginia 8.5 Over 1 1 0
Iowa 8.5 Under 3 3 0
Notre Dame 7.5 Under 3 3 0
Brigham Young 8 Over 2 0 2
Nevada-Las Vegas 4.5 Under 3 3 0
Oregon 9 Over 2 2 0
Stanford 7.5 Over 1 1 0
UCLA 5.5 Over 1 0 1
Florida 10 Under 1 1 0
South Carolina 7 Over 1 1 0
Nevada 9.5 Under 2 0 2
Subtotal 1 5 3
2 4 4
3 12 0
4 0 0
Total 21 7

There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

2011 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

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