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Compu-Picks 2011 Record Projection Comparison

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Aug 17, 2011


2011 Compu-Picks 2011 Preview: Comparing Compu-Picks projections to other publicly available sources

The below table contains 2011 win total projections from a number of sources (some aren't yet complete):
Compu-Picks (CPK)
Hilton Open (HIL)
TheGreek.com Open (TG)
Cantor (Can)
5Dimes.com (5D)
Bodog.com (BDG) (8/26 lines)
Collegefootballnews.com (CFN)
Football Outsiders Almanac (FOA)
SI.com (SI)
Athlon (ATH)
Beyondthebets.com (BTB)
Collegefootballmatrix.com (CFM) (note: these projections were from March, before Ohio St / Miami news came out)
Collegefootballpoll.com (CFP)
as well as a consensus average (Tot)

Please note that this table may be subsequently updated as additional data becomes available (most recent update: August 31st); the Compu-Picks projections are already up and will not change, but other sources may add data (SI is on the pace to add one league per weekday, and collegefootballpoll.com should be up at some point), and additional sources may be added as well. Also, please note that some of the cells are highlighted; these cells are projections that materially differ from the consensus. Orange cells differ by at least 2.5 wins, and yellow by at least 1.5.


Team Name CPK HIL TG Can 5D BDG CFN FOA SI ATH BTB CFM CFP Tot
Boston College 6.05 6.5 7 5.72 6 6 6.0 6.0 7.0 6.3
Clemson 6.03 7.0 7.0 8 7.47 8 6 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.2
Florida State 10.19 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 10.0 9 9.58 10 11 9.5 11.0 11.0 10.0
Maryland 5.15 4 6.50 8 8 6.0 5.0 7.0 6.2
North Carolina State 7.88 7 8.66 8 9 8.0 7.0 10.0 8.2
Wake Forest 4.46 2 3.04 5 2 3.0 4.0 2.0 3.2
Duke 5.37 4 3.64 4 4 4.0 4.0 3.0 4.0
Georgia Tech 6.86 6.0 6.0 7 6.22 8 6 7.0 7.0 5.0 6.5
Miami (Florida) 6.22 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.0 8 8.19 8 9 8.0 8.0 5.0 7.7
North Carolina 8.43 8.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 9 7.21 6 7 8.0 9.0 8.0 7.8
Virginia 6.11 6 5.01 5 5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.2
Virginia Tech 9.45 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 10 11.16 11 11 10.5 9.0 12.0 10.4
Baylor 4.50 6.5 6.5 4 4.67 6 6 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.6
Iowa State 2.47 4 2.66 4 4 4.0 2.0 2.0 3.1
Kansas 4.62 3.5 1 2.32 3 3 4.5 4.0 1.0 3.0
Kansas State 4.71 5.0 5.0 5.5 5 5.03 5 4 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Missouri 8.19 7.5 7.0 8.0 7.5 7.5 9 9.33 9 8 7.5 7.0 10.0 8.1
Oklahoma 9.72 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 11 10.74 12 12 10.5 10.0 12.0 10.7
Oklahoma State 8.48 8.5 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 9 9.31 8 10 9.0 8.0 9.0 8.6
Texas 7.09 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.5 9 7.10 8 8 7.5 8.0 5.0 7.7
Texas A&M 8.73 8.5 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.5 8 7.94 8 10 9.0 9.0 11.0 8.8
Texas Tech 7.32 7.0 7.0 7 7.00 7 7 6.5 7.0 8.0 7.1
Cincinnati 7.57 6.5 6 7.78 7 7 7.0 6.0 5.0 6.6
Connecticut 5.68 6 7.56 7 6 7.0 4.0 9.0 6.5
Louisville 6.06 7 5.90 5 5 6.0 7.0 3.0 5.6
Pittsburgh 6.78 8.5 6 9.56 10 7 8.5 6.0 10.0 8.0
Rutgers 4.91 6.5 6 5.42 4 6 6.0 8.0 4.0 5.6
South Florida 8.02 8.0 8.0 8.0 9 6.67 9 8 8.0 7.0 8.0 8.0
Syracuse 5.59 6.0 6.0 6.0 6 4.84 6 8 6.5 5.0 7.0 6.1
West Virginia 9.56 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 10 9.63 10 10 8.0 8.0 10.0 9.3
Iowa 6.25 8.0 8.0 8 8.79 9 8 8.5 7.0 5.0 7.7
Michigan 6.24 7.0 7.0 7.5 7.0 7.0 9 8.57 7 8 7.0 8.0 7.0 7.4
Michigan State 8.14 7.5 7.0 8.0 7.5 7.0 8 7.15 9 9 8.0 9.0 10.0 8.1
Minnesota 4.90 5 4.76 4 4 4.0 3.0 2.0 4.0
Nebraska 9.01 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 10.0 9 8.36 10 11 9.5 8.0 12.0 9.7
Northwestern 5.83 7.5 6 5.40 8 6 6.5 6.0 9.0 6.7
Illinois 6.33 6.5 7 7.30 4 7 8.0 7.0 8.0 6.8
Indiana 4.00 4 3.98 5 4 4.0 5.0 1.0 3.9
Ohio State 10.20 9.0 8.5 9.0 10 9.50 7 10 8.0 9.0 8.0 8.9
Penn State 8.49 7.5 8.0 7.5 7.5 8.0 7 7.84 8 7 7.5 9.0 7.0 7.7
Purdue 6.00 5 4.43 6 5 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.0
Wisconsin 8.36 9.5 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.0 10 9.62 10 9 9.5 7.0 10.0 9.2
Central Florida 7.68 8 7.86 9 9 8.0 8.3
East Carolina 4.82 6 6.39 5 6 2.0 5.0
Marshall 3.23 6 3.36 5 4 4.0 4.3
Memphis 2.86 2 2.46 1 1 0.0 1.6
Southern Mississippi 8.65 8 8.55 8 9 12.0 9.0
Alabama-Birmingham 3.97 4 4.50 4 5 4.0 4.2
Houston 8.47 10 8.36 9 9 10.0 9.1
Rice 4.93 3 3.22 3 4 4.0 3.7
Southern Methodist 7.61 7 6.65 9 9 8.0 7.9
Tulane 3.79 3 3.96 4 3 3.0 3.5
Tulsa 6.50 8 7.33 7 6 9.0 7.3
Texas-El Paso 4.71 2 3.91 3 2 3.0 3.1
Army 5.64 6 4.01 5.0 4.0 4.9
Brigham Young 9.22 8.5 8.5 8.5 9 8.15 8.5 11.0 8.9
Navy 7.60 6 7.88 7.0 6.0 6.9
Notre Dame 9.38 8.5 9.0 9.5 8.5 9.0 9 8.64 10 9.0 9.0 11.0 9.2
Akron 2.99 2 3.11 5 2 1.0 2.7
Bowling Green State 5.43 6 4.35 6 5 1.0 4.6
Buffalo 3.32 2 3.26 3 2 3.0 2.8
Kent 4.26 5 5.77 5 5 6.0 5.2
Miami (Ohio) 4.07 5 5.11 7 6 10.0 6.2
Ohio 8.40 7 7.42 9 8 8.0 8.0
Temple 5.81 7 7.33 5 6 8.0 6.5
Ball State 4.67 1 3.86 2 3 4.0 3.1
Central Michigan 6.64 6 6.13 4 4 4.0 5.1
Eastern Michigan 3.23 3 4.16 3 4 4.0 3.6
Northern Illinois 7.26 9 9.53 8 7 10.0 8.5
Toledo 5.54 8 5.66 8 8 10.0 7.5
Western Michigan 7.15 8 6.60 7 6 6.0 6.8
Air Force 8.71 7.5 9 7.86 9 9 8.5 10.0 8.7
Boise State 10.76 10.5 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.0 11 11.22 11 11 11.0 12.0 10.8
Colorado State 5.05 4.5 7 3.58 6 6 6.0 2.0 5.0
New Mexico 3.53 2 3.18 4 2 3.0 3.0 3.0
San Diego State 6.42 8 7.47 6 7 6.0 9.0 7.1
Texas Christian 10.04 9.0 9.0 9.5 9.0 9.0 11 10.82 10 10 8.5 8.0 9.5
Nevada-Las Vegas 2.42 2.5 3.0 2.5 3 2.39 2 3 2.5 1.0 2.4
Wyoming 4.67 3 5.35 4 4 6.0 6.0 4.7
California 5.18 6 5.05 4 5 6.0 7.0 4.0 5.3
Oregon 10.16 9.5 10.0 9.5 11 9.59 10 11 10.5 11.0 11.0 10.3
Oregon State 5.31 6.5 7.0 6.5 6.5 7.0 6 6.67 5 6 6.5 7.0 3.0 6.1
Stanford 9.26 9.0 8.5 9.0 9.0 8.5 8 10.26 10 9 9.0 8.0 10.0 9.0
Washington 5.62 6.5 6.0 5 5.15 7 7 6.5 6.0 7.0 6.2
Washington State 5.02 4.5 2 2.47 4 3 3.5 4.0 2.0 3.4
Colorado 1.27 4.0 4 4.20 2 3 4.0 2.0 4.0 3.2
Arizona 5.91 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 6.32 6 6 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.9
Arizona State 8.01 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 10 7.64 8 8 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0
UCLA 7.30 5.5 5.5 5.5 6 4.74 4 4 5.5 5.0 4.0 5.2
Southern California 7.37 7.5 7.5 8.0 7.5 7.5 10 8.77 9 9 8.0 8.0 9.0 8.2
Utah 8.13 7.5 7.5 7.5 7 7.40 9 7 8.0 5.0 9.0 7.5
Florida 6.16 7.5 8.0 7.5 7.5 8.0 10 7.83 7 9 8.0 8.0 7.0 7.8
Georgia 6.25 8.5 8.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 9 8.46 6 10 9.0 9.0 6.0 8.1
Kentucky 6.91 6.0 6.0 5 6.87 5 6 6.0 6.0 7.0 6.1
South Carolina 9.92 9.0 9.0 8.5 9.0 9.0 9 8.72 10 8 8.5 8.0 10.0 9.0
Tennessee 7.85 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 8 5.62 6 6 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.6
Vanderbilt 3.82 3.5 2 2.99 4 3 3.5 3.0 1.0 3.0
Alabama 9.95 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 10 10.86 12 12 10.5 11.0 12.0 10.7
Arkansas 8.66 8.5 8.5 8.5 9 9.05 9 9 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8
Auburn 7.62 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.5 7 8.79 8 6 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.8
Louisiana State 7.93 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9 8.95 10 10 9.5 10.0 11.0 9.5
Mississippi 5.79 4.5 6 5.16 5 5 6.0 7.0 3.0 5.3
Mississippi State 6.78 7.5 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 8 6.00 9 7 7.0 7.0 9.0 7.4
Arkansas State 4.66 6 7.07 6 7 4.0 5.8
Louisiana-Lafayette 4.84 3 3.66 2 3 1.0 2.9
Louisiana-Monroe 6.28 6 5.14 5 5 8.0 5.9
Middle Tennessee State 5.46 3 4.52 6 5 4.0 4.7
North Texas 2.73 3 4.04 4 4 4.0 3.6
Troy State 7.56 7 7.12 7 7 8.0 7.3
Florida Atlantic 3.16 3 3.23 3 1 4.0 2.9
Florida International 6.00 7 7.32 8 7 10.0 7.6
Western Kentucky 4.95 2 4.01 3 4 4.0 3.7
Fresno State 6.75 6 6.24 10 7 6.0 7.0
Hawaii 8.95 9 8.66 9 10 7.0 8.8
Idaho 4.61 4 4.05 5 4 8.0 4.9
Louisiana Tech 4.94 6 5.23 5 6 4.0 5.2
Nevada 7.96 8.0 8.0 8.0 9 8.89 9 8 9.0 8.4
New Mexico State 2.58 0 1.51 2 1 2.0 1.5
San Jose State 4.56 2 3.52 3 2 2.0 2.8
Utah State 4.11 4 4.55 5 4 6.0 4.6
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about the Compu-Picks model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

2011 Compu-Picks Blog

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