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2011 5-Year Program Ranking - The Bottom 20
WKU RB Bobby Rainey
WKU RB Bobby Rainey
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 23, 2011


Starting from the bottom up, here is a detailed look at all 120 football programs in CFN's 2011 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis.


Preview 2011 - Bottom 20

CFN Five-Year Program Analysis


2011 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
- Bottom 20 | No. 81 to 100 | No. 61 to 80
- No. 41 to 60 | No. 26 to 40 | No. 11 to No. 25
- No. 10 Georgia | No. 9 Virginia Tech | No. 8 Alabama
- No. 7 Boise State | No. 6. LSU | No. 5 Texas | No. 4 Oklahoma
- No. 3 USC | No. 2 Ohio State | No. 1 Florida
- 2010 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

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Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allows a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we created the CFN Five-Year Program Analysis highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies.

One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we list the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.39
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.84
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 10.58
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 29.76
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.56
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.18
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.20
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.14
- Bad Wins: Wins over teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 11.27
- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

120. Western Kentucky 
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis:
The Hilltoppers are playing catch up. They’ve only been in FBS status for four years, but that still wouldn’t help the totals too much with a mere two wins over FBS teams so far. There were seven wins in 2007, but all came against lower level teams. There’s hope, though, with some good recruiting classes and a strong young head coach in Willie Taggart leading the way. The attendance might not be great, but the APR Score is nice. Until the Bad Losses go away, though, the ranking won’t rise.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 0.92
2010 Ranking: 120
2009 Ranking: 120
Attendance Score: 1.24
APR Score: 6
Drafted Players: 0
FBS Wins: 3
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 9
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 9
Conference Score: 1.43

119. North Texas  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: There was a time when North Texas ruled the Sun Belt world. Now it’ll be up to new head coach Dan McCarney to get the program back to among the Sun Belt elite. As high as No. 82 in the rankings in 2005, this is as close to rock bottom as its gets thanks to the lack of wins. With just nine FBS victories and a miserable conference winning percentage, it’s been a rough few years. The Mean Green has to start beating the bad teams.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 6.87
2010 Ranking: 118
2009 Ranking: 116
Attendance Score: 1.73
APR Score: 3
Drafted Players: 0
FBS Wins: 9
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 7.5
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 6
Conference Score: 1.89

118. New Mexico State  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis:
Hal Mumme was supposed to turn the Aggies around, but instead he pushed the program further into the abyss. DeWayne Walker is trying to pull up out of the nosedive, and in his third season he has the pieces in place to make the program his. On the plus side, the program moved up a spot. It was only one place, but it’s a start. The key will be to start beating the bad teams in conference play, and getting into the classroom would be nice.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 9.89
2010 Ranking: 119
2009 Ranking: 117
Attendance Score: 1.64
APR Score: 2
Drafted Players: 1
FBS Wins: 10
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 7.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 12
Conference Score: 1.5

117. Eastern Michigan
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Head coach Ron English is trying to do the impossible and turn around, arguably, the most woeful program in college football over the last decade. The last winning season was 1995, and that was the last year with more than four wins. The Eagles have only eight FBS wins in the last five years – the second fewest – and four of those victories were against teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Winning 20% of MAC games is hard to do. The Attendance Score is the worst in college football.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 10.53
2010 Ranking: 112
2009 Ranking: 105
Attendance Score: 1.23
APR Score: 4
Drafted Players: 2
FBS Wins: 8
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 7.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 4
Conference Score: 2.05

116. Duke  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: As usual, it’s always about the conference problems for Duke. The APR score is always going to be fantastic – scoring a perfect ten – but nothing else is there with no drafted players over the last five years and a nation-worst 12.5% conference winning percentage. Out of the ten wins over FBS teams, five of them came against bad teams that finished with three losses or fewer, while the 5.5 Bad Loss score is a disaster for a program that has to beat all the mediocre teams.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 18.97
2010 Ranking: 115
2009 Ranking: 113
Attendance Score: 2.47
APR Score: 10
Drafted Players: 0
FBS Wins: 2
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 5.5
Elite Losses: 0
Bad Wins: 5
Conference Score: 1.25

115. UNLV  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: UNLV is the program that can’t seem to generate any sort of consistent production. A not-bad 71st in the rankings in 2004, there’s been a steady slide down the charts with a stunning lack of conference wins being the problem. It’s not like the Mountain West has been the SEC, but the Rebels have only come up with a wins 22% of the time in league play. On the plus side, if it’s a plus side, 11 of the losses over the last five years came against elite teams with a whopping 11 Elite Losses. Over the last five years, UNLV has just one win over a winning team.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 20.76
2010 Ranking: 110
2009 Ranking: 111
Attendance Score: 2.28
APR Score: 4
Drafted Players: 2
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 4.5
Elite Losses: 11
Bad Wins: 8
Conference Score: 2.25

114. Florida International  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Winning the Sun Belt title last year helped move the need a little bit, but years and years of miserable production didn’t get Mario Cristobal’s club jumping up too far. The 1.28 Attendance Score is among the nation’s worst, and the APR Score of 1 is a total disaster, but the conference production is coming winning 35% of the league games. Beating the bad teams have been the biggest help, but overall, the program has to do a better job in the off-the-field categories, while coming up with more seasons like 2010 on the field.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 20.79
2010 Ranking: 117
2009 Ranking: 119
Attendance Score: 1.28
APR Score: 1
Drafted Players: 3
FBS Wins: 15
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 9
Conference Score: 3.51

113. Tulane  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: The 1998 12-0 season is ancient history and there have only been two winning seasons since. To be fair, of course, the program literally got blown away in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina, and it’s been nearly impossible to get back on track. The players are going to class with an excellent APR Score of 8, but the Green Wave has to do a better job of beating the bad teams with a whopping 6.5 Bad Loss score. That 2005 season isn’t on the books anymore, but to move up the team has to start winning all the games they’re supposed to.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 20.82
2010 Ranking: 114
2009 Ranking: 110
Attendance Score: 2.32
APR Score: 8
Drafted Players: 2
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 6.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 8
Conference Score: 2.25

112. Idaho 
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Being 112th in the nation is hardly anything to do cartwheels over, but head coach Robb Akey has the program on the way up. Getting people to come to the Kibbie Dome has been a problem, and while the attendance is going up, the 1.33 score is among the nation’s worst. That’s bad, the APR Score of 2 is worse. Winning 17 games against FBS teams might seem like a positive, but 12 of them were against teams that finished with three losses or fewer and there are just two wins over Quality teams. For Idaho, though, beating the bad WAC teams is going to have to be the norm.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 20.83
2010 Ranking: 116
2009 Ranking: 118
Attendance Score: 1.33
APR Score: 2
Drafted Players: 6
FBS Wins: 17
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 6
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 12
Conference Score: 2.5

111. Utah State 
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Utah State is just about impossible to turn around. It’s not like Utah is a hotbed for football, and the Aggies have to deal with being the No. 3 program in the state next to Utah and BYU, and the production hasn’t been there. Head coach Gary Andersen has done a strong job of making the team respectable, but the wins aren’t there with just 12 over the last five years with a 27.5% winning clip in conference play. Getting fans into the park is a problem with an awful 1.46 Attendance Score.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 21.71
2010 Ranking: 111
2009 Ranking: 112
Attendance Score: 1.46
APR Score: 5
Drafted Players: 3
FBS Wins: 12
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 10
Bad Wins: 8
Conference Score: 2.75

110. Akron  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: And here comes the drop off the map. The 2005 MAC championship season isn’t in the mix anymore, and it shows as the Zips have won just 30% of the conference games since the title campaign. The 1.48 Attendance Score is made worse with a dip in the fan base despite a new stadium, and there isn’t much else to get excited about with a miserable APR score of 3 and just two drafted players. Of the 17 wins, 13 of them were against the weak and the sad, and the Zips join North Texas, San Jose State, and Western Kentucky as the only schools without a win over a team that finished with a winning record.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 21.73
2010 Ranking: 93
2009 Ranking: 85
Attendance Score: 1.48
APR Score: 3
Drafted Players: 2
FBS Wins: 17
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 13
Conference Score: 3.00

109. Buffalo  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: The 2008 MAC Championship gave one of the nation’s most miserable programs a boost, ranking dead last in the rankings in 2006, but the production has to start to pick back up again under second-year head man Jeff Quinn. The Bulls are boosted by one big win, beating Ball State in the title game three years ago, providing the lone Quality and Elite win, but the other scores have to pick up. The 1.52 Attendance Score and the horrific APR score of 2 are going to keep the program down.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 22.27
2010 Ranking: 108
2009 Ranking: 109
Attendance Score: 1.52
APR Score: 2
Drafted Players: 4
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 6.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 9
Conference Score: 3.75

108. UAB  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Ranked 70th in 2005, there was a time when UAB wasn’t all that bad. The scores across the board, though, are awful with the Attendance Score dipping to under two, the APR Score of 1 an embarrassment, and the lone draft pick- QB Joe Webb to Minnesota – shows the stunning lack of talent. The problem now is that UAB isn’t just the third best program in Alabama; it’s fourth with the rise of Troy. On the interesting side, though, the five Quality Wins out of the 16 FBS wins are the most in the bottom 25. The team has been exciting at times, but the victories aren’t coming even though the five Quality Wins are tied for the most of any team in the bottom 36.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 22.41
2010 Ranking: 109
2009 Ranking: 104
Attendance Score: 1.91
APR Score: 1
Drafted Players: 1
FBS Wins: 16
Quality Wins: 5
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 0
Bad Wins: 7
Conference Score: 3.25

107. Kent State  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: It seems like the program should be doing more. It makes a lot of noise in the MAC, mostly thanks to a tremendous run defense and top pass rush over the last few years, and winning 43% of the conference games aren’t bad, but no one goes to the games. The 1.37 Attendance Score is lousy, and the Bad Loss Score of 6 is a disaster. Like most MAC teams, a slew of the wins came against the dregs, with 12 Bad Wins in the 19 total FBS victories. New head coach Darrell Hazell has a nice base to work with, but he also has a lot of work to do to make the program a bigger player in the conference title chase.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 24.12
2010 Ranking: 113
2009 Ranking: 114
Attendance Score: 1.37
APR Score: 3
Drafted Players: 4
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 6
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 12
Conference Score: 4.25

106. San Jose State 
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Head coach Mike MacIntrye needs to come up with a whopper of a season, or San Jose State is going to tumble into an ugly free fall near the bottom of the rankings. The 2006 9-4 season won’t count in next year’s rankings, and with just one win over an FBS team in the last two seasons, there’s a lot of work to be done. Of the 19 FBS wins over the last five years, a whopping 16 of them were Bad Wins, and the Spartans are among just four teams without a Quality Win over the last five years. The awful 1.7 Attendance Score and the disastrous APR Score of 2 aren’t helping. Interestingly enough, the program has had six players drafted, which is more than several bigger-name teams.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 24.45
2010 Ranking: 104
2009 Ranking: 108
Attendance Score: 1.70
APR Score: 2
Drafted Players: 6
FBS Wins: 19
Quality Wins: 0
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 16
Conference Score: 3.50

105. Memphis  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: 38th. That’s how high Memphis was ranked in 2006, and the drop has been swift and painful even with a decent APR Score of 7. Attendance is a problem, averaging over 41,000 fans per game are recently as 2004 and being under 24,000 last year, but the bigger overall issue is the lack of talent with just two players drafted in the last five years. Winning 30% of the conference games isn’t a plus, but more than anything else, the mere 14 FBS wins are the problem. However, there should be a rise in next year’s rankings when the 2-10 2006 season is wiped off the books.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 24.99
2010 Ranking: 92
2009 Ranking: 76
Attendance Score: 2.74
APR Score: 7
Drafted Players: 2
FBS Wins: 14
Quality Wins: 2
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 2.5
Elite Losses: 0
Bad Wins: 9
Conference Score: 3.00

104. ULM
- 2011 Preview  

Program Analysis: Call this a little bit of a shocker considering the records haven’t been that bad over the last five years. The Warhawks haven’t come up with a winning season, but they’ve been close. The 20 FBS wins are the most of anyone in the bottom 17, but the APR Score is a worst-possible 1, the 1.70 Attendance Score is awful, and the one drafted player – Kevin Payne to the Bears in 2007 – drags down a program that’s won more than half its Sun Belt games over the last five years. The four Quality Wins are the second-most of any in the bottom 20.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 25.84
2010 Ranking: 105
2009 Ranking: 106
Attendance Score: 1.70
APR Score: 1
Drafted Players: 1
FBS Wins: 20
Quality Wins: 4
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3.5
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 15
Conference Score: 5.14

103. Louisiana-Lafayette  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: The Ragin’ Cajuns have held steady for the last few years even though the 22 FBS wins are the most of any program in the bottom 25. The APR Score of 4 isn’t a disaster compared to other Sun Belt teams – like ULM – but the 5.5 Bad Loss Score drags the score down and the 1.77 Attendance Score is lousy. There’s just one win over a team that finished with a winning record, but just ten of the 22 victories came against the miserable programs. The pieces are there to move up, but now it’ll be up to new head coach Mark Hudspeth to start coming up with more Sun Belt wins. A big year is a must with the 6-6 2006 not counting in next year’s rankings.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 26.64
2010 Ranking: 101
2009 Ranking: 103
Attendance Score: 1.77
APR Score: 4
Drafted Players: 1
FBS Wins: 22
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 5.5
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 10
Conference Score: 4.86

102. Army  
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: This is going to start to change and get better in a big hurry with the 3-9 2006 season not counting in next year’s rankings. However, there are still 3-9 seasons in 2007 and 2008 to drag the score down. However, for all the problems on the field in the past, Army has been rebuilt under head coach Rich Ellerson and everything is pointing up. The APR Score of 8 is good, but it’s Army; it should be better. The 17 FBS wins aren’t enough, and 13 of them came against teams that finished with three wins or fewer. The Draft Score is always going to be a problem, with the courtesy pick of Caleb Campbell by Detroit in the seventh round of the 2008 NFL Draft the lone pick. Army has had just two players drafted since 1969. The 2008 14-7 win over Louisiana Tech was the only victory over a team that finished the season with a winning record.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 26.94
2010 Ranking: 106
2009 Ranking: 102
Attendance Score: 3.00
APR Score: 8
Drafted Players: 1
FBS Wins: 17
Quality Wins: 1
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 3
Elite Losses: 1
Bad Wins: 13
Conference Score: 3.44

101. New Mexico
- 2011 Preview  

Program Analysis: Under Rocky Long, New Mexico was in the 50s and was a decent mid-level Mountain West program. And then it all went down the tubes. The Lobos still have the 9-4 2007 season in the equation, but with two wins in the last two seasons, it’s getting ugly under third-year head man Mike Locksley. The 8.5 Bad Loss Score is at another level of bad, ranking just behind Western Kentucky for the worst score against the poor teams, and the rest of the numbers across the board stink. The worst mark revenue-wise if the Attendance Score. UNM was averaging close to 40,000 a game in the mid-2000s, but it averaged under 21,000 a game last year.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 26.97
2010 Ranking: 84
2009 Ranking: 63
Attendance Score: 2.72
APR Score: 4
Drafted Players: 5
FBS Wins: 20
Quality Wins: 3
Elite Win Score: 0
Bad Loss Score: 8.5
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 9
Conference Score: 3.25