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2011 CFN 5-Year Program Rankings - 11 to 25
TCU RB Ed Wesley
TCU RB Ed Wesley
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 24, 2011


CFN's 2011 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis ... Teams 11 to 25



Preview 2011 - No. 11 to 25

CFN Five-Year Program Analysis


2011 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
- Bottom 20 | No. 81 to 100 | No. 61 to 80
- No. 41 to 60 | No. 26 to 40 | No. 11 to No. 25
- No. 10 Georgia | No. 9 Virginia Tech | No. 8 Alabama
- No. 7 Boise State | No. 6. LSU | No. 5 Texas | No. 4 Oklahoma
- No. 3 USC | No. 2 Ohio State | No. 1 Florida
- 2010 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

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Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allows a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we created the CFN Five-Year Program Analysis highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies.

One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we list the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.39
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.84
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 10.58
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 29.76
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.56
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.18
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.20
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.14
- Bad Wins: Wins over teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 11.27
- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

25. Oregon State
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Oregon State had the Rose Bowl puck on its stick in 2008 and 2009, but Oregon screwed that up. Even so, getting into the top 25 is impressive considering the lack of national respect and coverage Mike Riley’s program has received. The Attendance Score is among the lowest of any of the top teams, and the APR isn’t great, but the 18 wins over teams that finished with winning records is tremendous and winning close to 65% of Pac 10 games is phenomenal. OSU has had as many players drafted over the last five years as Florida State and has had more talent talent than South Carolina, UCLA, and Oklahoma State.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 81.24
2010 Ranking: 31
2009 Ranking: 31
Attendance Score: 4.30
APR Score: 6
Drafted Players: 15
FBS Wins: 37
Quality Wins: 18
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1.5
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 7
Conference Score: 6.44

24. Tennessee
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: One of the five best programs in college football in the early 2000s, the Vols slipped back a bit, but not all that far. Even with the disappointments and the rebuilding jobs being done over the last few seasons by Phil Fulmer and now Derek Dooley, the program appears to be on the right track with some real, honest, changes to overcome the sins of the Lane Kiffin era. The Attendance Score is always phenomenal, but for a team used to being a pipeline to the NFL, having 18 players drafted aren’t enough. For having so many issues, and for only winning 53% of SEC games, staying in the top 25 isn’t all that bad, but the 9-4 2006 season won’t count in next year’s ranking.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 82.70
2010 Ranking: 17
2009 Ranking: 12
Attendance Score: 10.20
APR Score: 5
Drafted Players: 18
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 16
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 8
Conference Score: 5.25

23. Boston College
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Will Boston College ever get any respect? It’s never flashy, and there haven’t been too many monster wins, but all the program does is win, and win, and win. The Attendance Score is among the worst of any team in the top 50, but the APR is great and the 40 FBS victories and 63% clip in ACC play are tremendous. Best of all, the program is doing a great job against the good teams with a whopping 21 Quality Wins and an Elite Win Score of 3 – helped by Matt Ryan’s heroics against Virginia Tech in 2007. Imagine, BC has been a stronger get for the ACC than Miami.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 82.92
2010 Ranking: 15
2009 Ranking: 14
Attendance Score: 3.92
APR Score: 8
Drafted Players: 9
FBS Wins: 40
Quality Wins: 21
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 2
Bad Wins: 13
Conference Score: 6.25

22. Cincinnati
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Thanks to a few phenomenal seasons under Brian Kelly, including coming within a Texas field goal of possibly playing for the 2009 national title, Cincinnati is going to be high up in the rankings for a while. The miserable 4-8 rebuilding season under Butch Jones was offset by the loss of the 4-7 2005 season from the formula, while the sheer bulk of wins is able to overcome the lowest Attendance Score of any program in the top 53. Winning 66% of Big East games is impressive, and the Bearcats are doing a great job of winning the games they’re supposed to while coming up with 21 Quality Wins.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 85.10
2010 Ranking: 25
2009 Ranking: 35
Attendance Score: 3.03
APR Score: 7
Drafted Players: 14
FBS Wins: 40
Quality Wins: 21
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 12
Conference Score: 6.57

21. Iowa
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Seventh in the 2005 rankings, the Hawkeyes dipped below the top 25 over the last few seasons. Now the needle is pointing way up with a few huge seasons after slipping a bit. The 6.5 Elite Win Score is tied with Ohio State for the best in college football, and the rest of the numbers are solid and getting better. Getting 22 players drafted shows that Kirk Ferentz is doing some good things with the talents being brought in, and it’s translating to the field with 36 FBS wins. Some average seasons are going to be out of the formula in the next few seasons, and while 2011 might be seen as a bit of a rebuilding year, it’ll be a shock if Iowa isn’t easily among the top 20 programs in next year’s rankings.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 85.79
2010 Ranking: 26
2009 Ranking: 24
Attendance Score: 7.04
APR Score: 6
Drafted Players: 22
FBS Wins: 36
Quality Wins: 17
Elite Win Score: 6.5
Bad Loss Score: 2
Elite Losses: 6
Bad Wins: 10
Conference Score: 5.25

20. BYU
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: 48 wins?! Bronco Mendenhall has restored the Cougars’ roar with a dominant run in Mountain West play winning 85% of the time. The 17 Quality Wins are great, and improving throughout a rebuilding job last year was quick, and now it’s time to really rock again as an independent. The mere six players drafted is the lowest of any team in the top 45, and the APR is low and the Attendance Score is just okay, but Mendenhall knows how to win. With a franchise quarterback in Jake Heaps to work around for the next few years, the victories should keep on rolling. The 48 wins are tied for the ninth most over the last five seasons.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 86.29
2010 Ranking: 22
2009 Ranking: 32
Attendance Score: 6.29
APR Score: 5
Drafted Players: 6
FBS Wins: 48
Quality Wins: 17
Elite Win Score: 1.5
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 17
Conference Score: 8.50

19. Wisconsin
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: It’s been a learning process for head coach Bret Bielema, but he has the Badgers rocking again. The APR is great, the Camp Randall crowd is always jumping, and winning 68% of Big Ten games is impressive. However, the only Elite Win came against Ohio State last season and it’s not like Bucky has been rolling through tough schedules with a mere 15 Quality Wins and 15 Bad Wins. Basically, the bully has been beating up on a bunch of weaklings, but this is still a hot program that hung around the top 15 not all that long ago. It’ll get back to the elite of the elite status soon with Bielema not firmly entrenched as one of the new coaching stars.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 88.83
2010 Ranking: 16
2009 Ranking: 16
Attendance Score: 8.08
APR Score: 9
Drafted Players: 16
FBS Wins: 44
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 15
Conference Score: 6.75

18. Nebraska
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Bo Pelini is bringing the superpower back. The Huskers haven’t been among the ten best programs since 2009, but they’re on their way with 40 FBS wins and a solid 63% winning clip in Big 12 play. Now it’s on to the Big Ten where it should be tougher on a weekly basis, but the momentum shouldn’t stop. The key going forward is to beat the best of the best teams after losing nine games to Elite Teams over the last five years and with the one Elite Win coming at Oklahoma State last year. Getting 20 players drafted is nice, and the Attendance Score is always going to be consistently great, but the wins against the good teams have to keep flowing to move up.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 89.02
2010 Ranking: 24
2009 Ranking: 33
Attendance Score: 8.52
APR Score: 7
Drafted Players: 20
FBS Wins: 40
Quality Wins: 16
Elite Win Score: 1.5
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 10
Conference Score: 6.25

17. Missouri
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: 93rd in the 2003 rankings, Mizzou has been able to fly up to the rankings into its highest spot ever. A good school, the APR is excellent off the field, and on it, winning 65% of Big 12 games and coming up with Elite Wins over Oklahoma last year and Kansas in 2007 are program-makers. Not playing Nebraska anymore will help, but now the Tigers have to face Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M every year. The 13 drafted players is a little light, and it would be nice to start winning bowl games on a regular basis. How long will the program be in the Big 12? If the Big Ten asks, MU will be gone.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 90.88
2010 Ranking: 20
2009 Ranking: 22
Attendance Score: 6.13
APR Score: 8
Drafted Players: 13
FBS Wins: 43
Quality Wins: 21
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 12
Conference Score: 6.50

16. Utah
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Playtime is over. A few big wins here and there have been nice, with a strong Elite Win Score, but for the most part, Utah has been able to blow up bad Mountain West teams on the way to 48 FBS victories and winning more than 77% of conference games. Only TCU – thanks Mountain West – has more Bad Wins, and the Attendance Score isn’t a positive, but the Utes proved to be just outside of the elite for the last several years. Now the program has to prove it can keep the production coming in the new Pac-12, and it’ll be a spotlight game for everyone in the first year.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 91.69
2010 Ranking: 19
2009 Ranking: 17
Attendance Score: 4.44
APR Score: 7
Drafted Players: 14
FBS Wins: 48
Quality Wins: 18
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 1
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 17
Conference Score: 7.75 

15. Penn State
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: And you want to get rid of Joe Paterno why? No matter how it’s being done, the production is still coming with a top 15 ranking after slipping down to 48th not all that long ago. The combination of Attendance Score and APR are peerless, and the NFL talent is still flowing with 20 players being sent off to the big league, but the 15 Quality Wins are a bit light. Even so, being this high up is still impressive and proves that the program is still among the best around. And will it be Urban Meyer who takes things to a whole other level? Let the speculation roll.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 94.22
2010 Ranking: 9
2009 Ranking: 13
Attendance Score: 10.72
APR Score: 9
Drafted Players: 20
FBS Wins: 43
Quality Wins: 15
Elite Win Score: 1
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 9
Bad Wins: 13
Conference Score: 6.50

14. Auburn
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Ranking ninth two years ago, you’d think winning a national title would boost things up even more, but the 9-3 2005 season is out of the equation and the 5-7 2008 season will be in the mix for a while. The 43 wins are terrific – coming up with a 14-0 record helps – and the 20 Quality Wins are great, but the APR is embarrassing, with the lowest ranking in the top 25 teams. Now the question is whether or not Gene Chizik can keep the momentum rolling. This should be a rebuilding season, but with one of the nation’s top recruiting classes coming in, the talent level is only getting better.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 95.05
2010 Ranking: 21
2009 Ranking: 9
Attendance Score: 8.55
APR Score: 4
Drafted Players: 19
FBS Wins: 43
Quality Wins: 20
Elite Win Score: 5
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 4
Bad Wins: 8
Conference Score: 6.00

13. West Virginia
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: Whether it was Rich Rodriguez or Bill Stewart, the Mountaineers have been among the elite, hanging around among the top 15 programs for the last several years. The 11 players drafted aren’t that many, and the Attendance Score will always be a bit low, but winning 71% of Big East games is a big plus and the 24 Quality Wins are fantastic – only five teams have more. New head coach Dana Holgorsen has started out a bit rocky, but if he can bring his brand of magic to the WVU offense, the program ranking will only go up. Now, unlike Stewart, he has to get the program into the BCS on a regular basis.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 95.71
2010 Ranking: 12
2009 Ranking: 15
Attendance Score: 5.82
APR Score: 7
Drafted Players: 11
FBS Wins: 45
Quality Wins: 24
Elite Win Score: 3
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 3
Bad Wins: 10
Conference Score: 7.14

12. Oregon
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: The ranking has fluctuated wildly, being in the top 15 in 2003 and dipping into the low 50s a few years later, but a Rose Bowl appearance and a national title shot have boosted the Ducks into the cusp of the elite. The 10-2 2005 season isn’t on the books anymore, but three straight double-digit win seasons and no signs of slowing down should put the program well into the top ten soon. The Attendance Score will always be limited by the small, but terrifying, Autzen Stadium, and the APR needs to be better, but winning 73% of conference games has been phenomenal. Winning 46 FBS games with 22 Quality Wins has made this one of the top programs, but head coach Chip Kelly has to weather the storm from the Willie Lyles controversy – it appears to be blowing over.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 95.96
2010 Ranking: 26
2009 Ranking: 14
Attendance Score: 5.87
APR Score: 5
Drafted Players: 16
FBS Wins: 46
Quality Wins: 22
Elite Win Score: 2
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 7
Bad Wins: 8
Conference Score: 7.33

11. TCU
- 2011 Preview

Program Analysis: How good has TCU been? The 11-1 2005 season isn’t a part of the equation anymore and the ranking went up. The Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin legitimized all the great things Gary Patterson has done with the program over the years, but for the most part, the Horned Frogs have come up with a ton of wins over some really, really bad teams. The 51 FBS victories are tied for the fourth most in college football, but no one has beaten more awful teams with a nation-leading 19 Bad Wins. Even so, it’s not like the team is wilting when it does get a chance. Winning nearly 83% of conference games is impressive no matter what, and next year the program will get to show what it can do in the Big East. After coming within a whisper of playing in the last two national title games, the pressure is now on to play the role of a superpower and not a little engine that could. Patterson shouldn’t have a problem making the adjustment.

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 99.21
2010 Ranking: 25
2009 Ranking: 13
Attendance Score: 3.46
APR Score: 8
Drafted Players: 15
FBS Wins: 51
Quality Wins: 20
Elite Win Score: 4.5
Bad Loss Score: 0
Elite Losses: 5
Bad Wins: 19
Conference Score: 8.25