2011 5-Year Program Rankings - No. 3 USC

CFN's 2011 Five-Year Program Rankings and Analysis ... No. 3 USC

Preview 2011 - No. 3 USC

CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

2011 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis
- Bottom 20 | No. 81 to 100 | No. 61 to 80
- No. 41 to 60 | No. 26 to 40 | No. 11 to No. 25
- No. 10 Georgia | No. 9 Virginia Tech | No. 8 Alabama
- No. 7 Boise State | No. 6. LSU | No. 5 Texas | No. 4 Oklahoma
- No. 3 USC | No. 2 Ohio State | No. 1 Florida
- 2010 CFN Five-Year Program Analysis

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Every new coach realistically needs five years to make a program his. He doesn't always get that much time, often being asked to turn things around right away. Five years allows a coach to go through an entire recruiting cycle, get comfortable in the position, and implement everything he'd like to do. With that in mind, we created the CFN Five-Year Program Analysis highlighting off-the-field factors like the Academic Progress Report (do the players go to class) and the players drafted by the NFL (a huge selling point to recruits), to attendance (it pays the bills) and wins, wins, wins. On-field success ends up being all that matters, so that's where the focus lies.

One note, the totals for each team might not add up because we list the total number of wins and losses for the categories, while the Bad Wins and Losses and Elite Wins and Losses might be scored differently (two home losses against 3-9 teams would be scored as a 3).

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last five years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.39
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. 90th to 100th percentile (best) gets a 10, 1st to 10th percentile (worst) gets a 1 Avg. Score: 5.84
- Quality Wins: Wins over FBS teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 10.58
- Total Wins: Wins over FBS teams. Avg. Score: 29.76
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted. Avg. Score: 9.56
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 4.97
- Elite Win Score: Wins over FBS teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road, at a neutral site, or in a bowl over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Number: 1.18
- Bad Loss Score: Losses to teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any loss to a non-FBS team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each Bad Loss at home. Avg. Number: 2.20
- Elite Losses: Losses to teams that finished with two wins or fewer. Take 0.25 of the number. Avg. Number: 5.14
- Bad Wins: Wins over teams that finished with three wins or fewer or any win to a non-FBS team Avg. Number: 11.27
- Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories

3. USC
- 2011 Preview

2011 TOTAL SCORE: 122.47
2010 Ranking: 1 | 2009 Ranking: 1

Program Analysis: Not only was USC the No. 1 program in America over the last few years, it wasn’t even close … until last year.

Season after season, the Trojans were on top, owning the premier spot since 2005, but two straight mediocre years, and the NCAA sanctions sure to keep the mediocrity coming for a little while longer, could mean even more of a drop. The 12-1 2005 season didn’t count anymore in this year’s rankings, and next year, the 11-2 2006 season won’t be in the formula. The slide will continue, but the question will be how fast Lane Kiffin can get the Trojans back to form. More importantly, considering the NCAA issue, is whether or not it can all be done on the up and up.

It’s Los Angeles, so there’s going to be some semblance of the fan base that’s fickle when things aren’t going well. After averaging well over 91,000 fans per game in 2006, the attendance slipped to under 80,000 per game last year even with home games against Oregon and Notre Dame on the slate. The Attendance Score will almost certainly dip a little more this year without a hot start.

The APR is great and the 51 FBS wins are still impressive considering the issues over the last two years, but the most amazing stat of all is the draft score with a whopping 42 players taken by the NFL. The No. 2 team on the list is LSU with 30 players drafted, and the No. 3 teams are Florida State and Ohio State with 27. How amazing is this? USC has had as many players drafted over the last five seasons as the bottom 20 teams in the rankings.

The Trojans will drop further next year and likely the year after, but don’t expect them to go to far. Again, though, considering this was the No. 1 program for so long, being out of the top five is a really big deal.

Attendance Score: 8.61
2006: 91,480
2007: 87,476
2008: 86,793
2009: 84,799
2010: 79,907

APR Score: 8

Drafted Players: 42
2007: WR Dwayne Jarrett, WR Steve Smith, C Ryan Kalil, LB Dallas Sartz, LB Oscar Lua
2008: DT Sedrick Ellis, LB Keith Rivers, OT Sam Baker, DE Lawrence Jackson, OG Chilo Rachal, TE Fred Davis, DB Terrell Thomas, QB John David Booty, LB Thomas Williams, RB Chauncey Washington
2009: QB Mark Sanchez, LB Brian Cushing, LB Clay Matthews Jr., LB Rey Maualuga, DT Fili Moala, WR Patrick Turner, LB Kaluka Maiava, DE Kyle Moore, PK David Buehler, DB Cary Harris, DB Kevin Ellison
2010: S Taylor Mays, OT Charles Brown, WR Damian Williams, CB Kevin Thomas, DE Everson Griffin, RB Joe McKnight, TE Anthony McCoy
2011: OT Tyron Smith, DT Jurrell Casey, DB Shareece Wright, TE Jordan Cameron, WR Ronald Johnson, RB Allen Bradford, RB Stanley Havili, WR David Ausberry, LB Malcolm Smith

FBS Wins: 51
Quality Wins: 24
2006: at Arkansas, Nebraska, Arizona State, Oregon, California, Notre Dame, Michigan (Rose Bowl)
2007: Oregon State, at California, at Arizona State, Illinois (Rose Bowl)
2008: Ohio State, Oregon, at Arizona, California, Notre Dame, Penn State (Rose Bowl)
2009: at Ohio State, at California, Oregon, State, UCLA, Boston College (Emerald Bowl)
2010: at Hawaii, at Arizona

Elite Win Score: 4.5
2006: Michigan (Rose Bowl)
2007: at Arizona State
2008: Penn State (Rose Bowl)
2009: at Ohio State
2010: None

Bad Loss Score: 0

Elite Losses: 2 - 2010: at Stanford, Oregon

Bad Wins: 9
2006: at Stanford
2007: Idaho, at Notre Dame
2008: at Washington State, Washington
2009: San Jose State, Washington State
2010: at Minnesota, at Washington State

Conference Score: 7.11
2006: 7-2
2007: 7-2
2008: 8-1
2009: 5-4
2010: 5-4