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at UNLV 40 ... Hawaii 20
Posted Sep 17, 2011

Week 3 CFN Fearless Prediction & Game Story - Hawaii at UNLV

2011 Predictions & Game Story 

Week 3 - Hawaii at UNLV

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Sept. 17 at UNLV 40 ... Hawaii 20
CFN Analysis: UNLV did absolutely nothing over the first few games to suggest it had 40 points in it, but four takeaways and an 80-yard touchdown run from Tim Cornett changed that. Caleb Herring wasn’t bad throwing the ball short to start the season, and he was stronger against the Warriors with 178 yards and two scores on an effective day. The call went out to get more physical on both sides of the ball, and in the home opener, it all worked out. With Southern Utah up next, 2-2 is likely before going to Nevada, and while forcing more takeaways would be nice, getting more pop from the offense will be a must to make any noise in Mountain West play.

Hawaii’s passing game has to get back on track. The Warriors started making too many mistakes and the offense couldn’t come back with any production through the air to come back. Bryant Moniz threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns, but that’s hardly the normal Hawaii production. UNLV’s secondary was awful over the first two games, and the Warriors couldn’t take advantage and couldn’t overcome the four fumbles in a shocking loss. Aaron Brown came up with 12 tackles and a sack, and Corey Paredes made 13 stops, but it wasn’t nearly enough. The passing game needs to find itself against UC Davis before diving into WAC play at Louisiana Tech.

(AP) LAS VEGAS -- Tim Cornett ran for an 80-yard touchdown and Phillip Payne caught two scoring passes to help UNLV shock a fumble-prone Hawaii 40-20 on Saturday night.

Cornett's first-quarter run was the longest rushing score for the Rebels (1-2) in 22 years.

The Warriors (1-2), which were a 20 1/2-point favorite, fumbled four times.

UNLV's Caleb Herring was 17 of 29 passing for 178 yards and two touchdowns, both to Payne.

Hawaii's Bryant Moniz completed 20 of 36 for 233 yards two touchdowns, both to Justin Clapp.

Hawaii (1-1) at UNLV (0-2)
Sept. 17, 10:00

Here’s The Deal … If everything goes according to form, the potential is there for this to be an ugly contrast in styles, but it could be an entertaining one.

Hawaii hasn’t gotten its passing game going yet, running its way to a win over Colorado, while not getting quite enough early on in last week’s loss to Washington. However, if it was ever going to work, it would be this week against a UNLV secondary that’s been destroyed over the first two weeks and hasn’t been even close to coming up with a meaningful stop.

Losing to Wisconsin is one thing – the Badgers are among the nation’s top teams – but to get obliterated by Washington State 59-7 is a problem. Nothing has worked so far for any part of the Rebels, and now the offense that produced 24 points in the first two games has to deal with the Warriors.

Hawaii gets a break with UC Davis next week before launching into WAC play, while UNLV finally gets a breather going against Southern Utah. First, either Hawaii has to show that the passing attack really does work, or UNLV has to show a sign of life.

Why Hawaii Might Win: 120. Dead last. That’s what UNLV is in pass efficiency defense, getting picked apart by Wisconsin and Washington State allowing the passing games to complete 40-of-53 passes for 729 yards and nine touchdowns. When Wazzu’s Marshall Lobbestael is throwing for 361 yards and five scores, there’s a problem. Just as big a problem is a Rebel offense that can’t do anything through the air, even with a short passing attack, and it can’t put points on the board. If Hawaii makes this a shootout in any way, it’ll get ugly early. Hawaii might have issues, but scoring, as expected, isn’t a problem.

Why UNLV Might Win: It’s not like the Hawaii secondary is stopping anyone. Like UNLV, the Warriors are having major issues keeping decent passing games under wraps, allowing Colorado’s Tyler Hansen to dink and dunk for 223 yards and two scores, and giving up 315 yards and four scores to Washington’s Keith Price. Despite the lack of production so far, UNLV has decent enough receivers to get by, and it has just enough speed and athleticism to match up with a struggling Warrior defense. Offensively, Hawaii’s pass protection has been a problem, so if the Rebels can dial up the pass rush in any way, finally, the secondary should get a break.

What To Watch Out For: Can Hawaii stop anyone from getting to Bryant Moniz? The Warriors already lost starting guard Chauncy Winchester-Makainai to a knee injury, and then it lost Sean Shigematsu also to a knee problem. After giving up seven sacks in two weeks, and after paving the way for just 220 yards rushing, the Warrior O line has to scramble in a hurry to find a combination that allows the skill players to shine.

UNLV has to get more from the receivers that have had problems with drops and haven’t made things happen on their own. Michael Johnson led the way last year with 51 grabs for 571 yards and five touchdowns, but after getting suspended for academic issues, he came back to catch 12 passes for 86 yards in the first two games. At 6-3 and 205 pounds Phillip Payne has great size, isn’t afraid to block, and has a knack for getting open for scores. Staying healthy is a key after suffering concussion problems in the past, but this year he has to be used more after only catching five passes for 32 yards and a score.

What Will Happen: Hawaii won’t be back to being Hawaii yet, but it won’t have any problems coming up with enough yards and points early on to give UNLV trouble. Finally, the Rebels will run a bit, but it won’t be enough to match the reemergence of the Warrior passing game.

CFN Prediction: Hawaii 40 … UNLV 20
- Click For Latest Line From ATS: Hawaii -18.5   O/U: 60

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