at Troy 24 ... UAB 23
Posted Oct 1, 2011

Week 5 CFN Fearless Prediction & Game Story - UAB at Troy

2011 Predictions & Game Story 

Week 5 - UAB at Troy

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Oct. 1 at Troy 24 ... UAB 23
CFN Analysis: Troy's passing game put up yards, but Corey Robinson didn't throw any touchdown passes to go along with his 349 yards in the big comeback. Robinson got the offense close, and D.J. Taylor closed out the drives with three tough scores to pull out the win. With three turnovers and ten penalties, Troy was sloppy and allowed UAB to stay in the game, and the pass rush wasn't effective enough. Even with the problems, this was a second straight close, tough win going into what might be the Sun Belt title game next week against ULL. If Robinson isn't bombing away, the Trojans aren't going to get through a rough patch of three road games in the next four weeks without at least two losses.

UAB held up surprisingly well without quarterback Bryan Ellis to rely on, but Jonathan Perry only completed 19-of-39 passes for 196 yards with a pick. The defense did its part with four takeaways and T.J. Ballou key pick six, but the pass rush is still non-existent and there weren't any key stops late to hold off the hard-charging Trojans. Everything went UAB's way, but the running game wasn't there to close things out. The line has been horrible, but Mississippi State isn't going to care. Coming off some bad performances, the Bulldogs should be able to pound away on the Blazers. It's going to be a rough six week stretch until the Memphis game, and it's going to take something special to come within ten points of anyone until mid–November.

(AP) TROY, Ala. -- D.J. Taylor ran for a career-high three touchdowns, including the game-winner with 4:07 left, as Troy rallied to beat UAB 24-23.

Troy's winning touchdown, from 2 yards out, was set up when cornerback Jimmie Anderson stepped in front of a screen pass and intercepted it, returning it 6 yards to the UAB 12-yard line.

He also scored on 3- and 1-yard runs for the Trojans (2-2).

The Blazers (0-4) took a 23-14 lead when T.J. Ballou returned an interception 52 yards for a touchdown. The Trojans cut into that on Michael Taylor's 48-yard field goal with 5:18 left.

Troy quarterback Corey Robinson threw for 349 yards and passed the 5,000-yard mark in his career.

UAB quarterback Jonathan Perry, who started in place of injured Bryan Ellis, threw for 154 yards. His fourth-down pass with 1:37 left fell incomplete.

UAB (0-3) at Troy (1-2) Oct. 1, 7:00, Fox Sports South

Here's The Deal … Troy and UAB get together again this year after last season's highly controversial finish. In a game that video replay showed Troy should have won, the officials incorrectly called a UAB touchdown on the final play of the game, which gave the Blazers a 34-33 victory. The Trojans will be looking to make up for that questionable defeat with a strong performance in front of the home fans.

Troy has not lost a home game in October since 1997, an incredible streak of 21 consecutive victories. UAB is still looking for its first win of the year, and it may need to get a victory soon or head coach Neil Callaway could be in serious jeopardy of losing his job.

Why UAB Might Win: The Blazers nearly pulled off the upset of East Carolina last week on the road, falling by a slim 28-23 margin. UAB forced a school-record seven turnovers in the game, but unfortunately was unable to capitalize on the Pirates miscues, generating just 14 points off turnovers. If it can create the same opportunities again this week and be more efficient when controlling the ball, the Blazers may be able to pull off a tough road win. UAB also has done an excellent job of protecting the quarterback, allowing only three sacks on the season, including a game at Florida against the Gators imposing defensive front. Providing backup QB Jonathan Perry with time to sit in the pocket and go through his progressions downfield will be a major benefit for the inexperienced quarterback.

Why Troy Might Win: The starting quarterback for UAB, Bryan Ellis, will miss this week's game after suffering a serious concussion last week against ECU. Ellis was just starting to get into a rhythm, and the Blazers offense was beginning to click, but now UAB will have to start over with a young signal caller. The Blazers rank in the bottom five of the country in both total offense and total defense. There are justifiable arguments that UAB is the worst FBS team this year, and Troy has renewed confidence after defeating conference foe Middle Tennessee last week. The Trojans have done a fantastic job passing the ball in 2011 year, averaging 326 yards per game through the air. QB Corey Robinson should be able to do whatever he wants against a Blazer D that's yet to figure out how to stop anyone.

What To Watch Out For: Troy DL John Robles. Robles has been a terror in opposing backfields this season, racking up seven tackles for loss, including two sacks. He has also forced two fumbles and put consistent pressure on the quarterback to cause disruptions to the passing game. He should be able to maneuver right through the UAB offensive line and acquaint himself with Perry, who will be running for his life in his first career start.

What Will Happen: This game could possibly turn into a shootout if Troy's defense does not show up to play, but as long as the Trojans are prepared for action, they should be able to do as they please. Robinson's career high in passing came last year against UAB when he threw for 404 yards, and this year he has a great chance of breaking that record against the same team. The Trojans will score early and often, and this game will never be in doubt.

CFN Prediction: Troy 41 … UAB 21
- Click For Latest Line From ATS: Troy -16   O/U: 59.5

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