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Boise State 57 ... at Fresno State 7
Posted Oct 7, 2011

Week 6 CFN Fearless Prediction & Game Story - Boise State at Fresno State

2011 Predictions & Game Story 

Week 6 - Boise State at Fresno State

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Oct. 7 Boise State 57 … at Fresno State 7
CFN Analysis: This was Boise State’s last ESPN national showcase, and for those who weren’t busy watching Chris Carpenter’s magnum opus against Philadelphia, this was the type of dominant stomping the team needed to come up with. Not only was Kellen Moore back on track after a mediocre performance last week against Nevada, but now the offense has a big-time weapon ready to be a star with Geraldo Boldewijn back after serving a four-game suspension. Moore was sharp, and he would’ve been even better than 23-of-31 for 254 yards and three scores if Boldewijn had hung on to a sure-thing touchdown catch early on.

The Bulldog offense never got going and didn’t show any possibility of keeping up the pace with Boise State. Robbie Rouse ran when he had his chances, but the game got out of hand before he could establish himself. Fresno State is supposed to have a strong passing game with plenty of weapons, but Jalen Saunders only had one catch for one yard. The O turned it over four times, there was a major special teams breakdown, and the team managed just nine first downs. But this game didn’t really matter; next year it will when both teams are in the Mountain West. Beating Utah State next week is bigger.

(AP) FRESNO, Calif. -- Geraldo Boldewijn caught two touchdown passes in his first game back from suspension and No. 5 Boise State extended its dominance over former WAC rival Fresno State in a 57-7 victory Friday night.

Kellen Moore went 23 of 31 for 254 yards and three scores in his 43rd career win for the Broncos (5-0), who have turned this once intense rivalry into a lopsided affair.

Boise State led 30-0 before Fresno State (2-4) even crossed midfield, and it took a 43-0 lead early in the third quarter on Doug Martin's 1-yard run to extend a run of 104 straight points against the Bulldogs.

D.J. Harper added a 3-yard TD run later in the quarter after an interception by Derek Carr and the streak finally ended at 111 straight points when Devon Wylie returned a punt 79 yards for a score on the first play of the fourth quarter for the Bulldogs.

The Broncos scored the final 10 points in a 51-34 victory here in 2009 and beat the Bulldogs 51-0 at home last year. They then scored the first 50 points of this game.

Boise State nearly scored as many touchdowns (eight) as Fresno State had first downs (nine) with the final score coming on Grant Hedrick's 23-yard run with 17 seconds left.

Martin ran for 94 yards, Harper had two short TD runs, Mitch Burroughs scored on a 25-yard run and Matt Miller caught a TD pass for Boise State's first score of the game. The only problems for the Broncos came on special teams where they had two missed extra points by Dan Goodale and allowed the long punt return.

Carr struggled in his first game against Boise State, completing 17 of 30 for 126 yards with one interception and a lost fumble. Robbie Rouse was held to 72 yards rushing to end a streak of four straight 100-yard performances as Fresno State lost its 15th straight game to a ranked opponent and suffered the worst home loss in coach Pat Hill's 15-year tenure.

The teams spent the past decade together in the WAC with Boise State winning nine of the 10 meetings starting with a 35-30 win over the then-No. 8 Bulldogs in 2001. Boise State left for the Mountain West Conference after last season and will be joined in its new conference by Fresno State next year.

But the Bulldogs haven't been in the Broncos' league. Boise State has outscored Fresno State 220-51 in the last four meetings, topping 50 points each time.

They took control early this game, getting a boost on offense from the return of Boldewijn, who was suspended for the first four games for taking impermissible benefits.

Boldewijn, the biggest and fastest member of the Broncos' receiving corps, had 11 catches for 160 yards last year and was being counted on to replace Titus Young as the team's deep threat.

Boldewijn caught an 11-yard pass on Boise State's second play from scrimmage. He dropped a potential touchdown pass later in the first quarter, forcing the Bulldogs to settle for a field goal by Goodale that made it 10-0.

Boise State added another touchdown about a minute later when Mitch Burroughs scored on a 25-yard end-around on the first play after Wylie lost a fumble to make it 16-0 before Fresno State even had its initial first down of the game.

Boldewijn got his first touchdown early in the second quarter when he made a one-handed, 18-yard grab with cornerback Isaiah Green draped over him to make it 23-0.

Hunter White's blocked punt set up Harper's 6-yard TD run that made it 30-0 and Boldewijn added his second TD on a 4-yard catch with 20 seconds left in the half to make it 37-0. Moore has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 18 straight games and has 25 career games with at least three.

Boise State (4-0) at Fresno State (2-3) Oct. 8, 9:00, ESPN/ESPN3

Here’s The Deal … Because Fresno State didn’t catch enough of a beating when Boise State was in the WAC, it’s looking for a bit more.

The Bulldogs are 0-3 against BCS teams this year, coming off a home loss to a bad Ole Miss team and losing at Cal and Nebraska, and short of going to some minor bowl, this is as close as it’s going to get to coming up with a big win.

Not only have the Bulldogs lost five straight to the Broncos, but the defense has been next level bad allowing 163 points in the last three losses along. Things don’t look too much brighter this year as Boise State is back in the hunt to be ignored by the BCS Championship types, while Fresno State is treading water as a second-rate mid-major that has a name bigger than the production.

The Broncos have won all four games this year by 14 points or more, and while they haven’t been on a path of destruction, they haven’t been all that close to losing – and that includes the opener against Georgia. The offense is fine, but it’s not quite the machine of previous years. The defense is strong, but the stats don’t look that great because the scrubs are coming in late. As showcase games go, this is as close as it gets until the TCU game, and Boise State needs to use the spotlight to show the world it belongs in the top five.

Why Boise State Might Win: If you can’t get to Kellen Moore it’s uh-oh time, and while the Fresno State defense hasn’t been too bad at getting into the backfield, it’s not generating sacks like it needs to. The pass defense has faced only two teams that can throw the forward pass – Cal and Idaho – and gave up yards to both teams. Moore shouldn’t have too many problems letting the downfield throws develop and he should remain his deadly, accurate self unless Fresno State sells out, and that’s when Doug Martin and the Boise power ground game will go to work on a soft Fresno front seven. Boise State has allowed just two sacks all year.

Why Fresno State Might Win: Fresno State, as always, has the athletes and the skill talents to make this interesting. It doesn’t have the lines compared to Boise State, and it’s not doing any one thing at a high level, but quarterback Derek Carr has decent pro potential, running back Robbie Rouse will get an NFL paycheck, and there’s speed at receiver. Boise State has been thrown on a bit, mostly because offense have tried to come back after getting blown away early, but Georgia’s Aaron Murray was decent and Toledo’s Terrance Owens threw for 201 yards. Carr threw for 371 yards and five touchdowns against Idaho and has been bombing away all year, throwing for 281 yards against Ole Miss and 254 against Nebraska. He’ll keep pressing for a full sixty minutes.

What To Watch Out For: Fresno State sophomore receiver Jalen Saunders might be the third best player on the field behind Moore and Boise State tackle Nate Potter. At 5-9 and 160 pounds, he’s small, but he’s fluid, quick, and can make the big play as a receiver, a runner, and a return man, but he hasn’t been used this year as a kickoff returner. Red hot, over the last three weeks he caught three passes for 154 yards and two scores against North Dakota, five catches for 142 yards and two scores against Idaho, and six grabs for 127 yards against Ole Miss.

Doug Martin finally got rolling. The Boise State senior back has been okay, and he had a hard time getting yards in last year’s win over the Bulldogs, but he had been workmanlike. He caught five passes for 122 yards and a score against Toledo, but last week against Nevada was the first time he got rolling with 21 hard carries for 126 yards and two scores. The offense works around Moore and the passing game, but Martin will be the steadying force early on.

What Will Happen: New leagues, same results. Boise State will dominate on the lines and Fresno State’s offense will struggle to get moving on a consistent basis. There will be moments of excitement, and the Broncos will give up a few home runs, but the methodical production will be unrelenting; Fresno State won’t ever get to take a break defensively.

CFN Prediction: Boise State 45 … Fresno State 21
- Click For Latest Line From ATS: Boise State -21  O/U: 58.5

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