2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 6 - BGSU at WMU
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Oct. 8 at Western Michigan 45 … Bowling Green 21
CFN Analysis: Alex Carder might have come up with a nice game, throwing for 212 yards and three scores, and Jordan White caught 12 passes for 156 yards and two scores, but it was Tevin Drake and the ground game that blew away the Falcons. Bowling Green has a dangerous passing game and a good offense, but WMU never gave up the ball holding on to it for 35 minutes in a crisp, effective game. Now comes the big test at Northern Illinois. Lose that, and the finishing kick with four road games in five weeks, including a date at Toledo, will be a problem for any MAC title hopes.
The Falcons needed to bomb away to try to keep up, but the offense didn’t click well enough and the defense didn’t get the job done. They kept up for a while early, but they failed to keep up the pace and then it became bench-emptying time down 45-14 in the fourth. Kamar Jorden came up with a 57-yard scoring play, and Eugene Cooper came up with nine catches, but it didn’t matter. WMU might be the best team in the MAC, but Toledo and Temple are probably in the top three. Those two are up next, but they’re at home. Four of the next five games are at home, but there aren’t any layups with Northern Illinois and Ohio following the road game at Kent State.
(AP) KALAMAZOO, Mich. -- Alex Carder threw for three touchdowns and added a rushing score, and Western Michigan rolled up 578 yards of offense to beat Bowling Green 45-21 on Saturday in the Broncos' homecoming game.
Carder opened the scoring for Western Michigan (4-2, 2-0 Mid-American Conference) with a 1-yard run early in the first quarter. In the second, he found Chris Prom for a 1-yard score and Jordan White for a 9-yarder. He added a 26-yarder to White in the third. Carder finished 18 for 26 for 212 yards, with one interception, plus 95 yards rushing.
White had 156 yards receiving, and Tevin Drake had 112 yards rushing and a touchdown. Antoin Scriven also rushed for a score for the Broncos, who were coming off a 38-31 win over Connecticut.
Anthon Samuel and Jamel Martin had rushing touchdowns for the Falcons (3-3, 1-1), and Matt Schilz hit Kamar Jorden for a 57-yard score.
Bowling Green (3-2) at Western Michigan (3-2) Oct. 8, 2:00, ESPN3
Here’s The Deal …Both teams have looked good at times and average at others. After setting the world on fire, the Falcons have come back to earth, losing two of their last three including an absolute pasting at the hands of West Virginia last week. Western Michigan has been decimated by injuries on the O-Line but has still managed to look good, their only losses coming to two decent Big Ten teams on the road (Michigan and Illinois). The Broncos were expected to contend this year, but BGSU has surprised folks around the league somewhat by its hot early start against everyone but West Virginia.
This will be a bit of a measuring stick for the Falcons to see if they really can expect to be in the race for the MAC East. Historically, this will be the 52nd meeting between the two schools and Bowling Green has a decided advantage, 31-26-3. Recently however, WMU has been the far better program and has taken the last two games in the series. Though these two are in separate divisions, this one will go a long way towards sizing up both teams’ expectations from here on out.
Why Bowling Green Might Win: Bowling Green has improved by leaps and bounds from last year, and legitimately have the talent to win this game. Though the Falcons are not great at any one thing, they are good enough in all phases to give Western Michigan fits. When the Broncos have struggled, it has been against teams that can spread out their defense, and that’s exactly what BGSU’s offense is predicated upon.
The Broncos passing game has been off the charts, but that’ll play right into the strength of a Falcons’ defense that ranks 16th in passing efficiency. WMU will move the ball through the air, but the the orange and brown should be able to slow them down just enough on offense, while taking advantage of its ability to run out of spread sets against the very weak run defense of the Broncos. It’ll no doubt sprinkle in some chunks through the air as expected. If Western Michigan continues yielding yards on the ground, things will open up through the air and give the Falcons the lift they need to pull this one out.
Why Western Michigan Might Win: While BGSU doesn’t really have the thing to hang its hat on, WMU does. The game plan is simple for the Broncos. Bomb away, bomb away, and then bomb away some more. No matter how good the Falcons’ pass defense has been this year, it won’t be good enough to stop the ultra-talented Broncos QB Alex Carder and the more than adequate receiving corps. It won’t matter what Bowling Green does because Western Michigan is going to rack up even more frequent flier miles in this one (and there’s no black-outs).
Then there is the comparison that can be made against quality opponents.
Though it does not always indicate where teams stand, the Broncos beat Connecticut, nearly pulled off an upset of a very sound Illinois team on the road, and though they got battered around a bit by Michigan on the scoreboard, the Broncos outgained the Wolverines by a large margin. BGSU on the other hand got publicly flogged in Morgantown- suggesting that it just doesn’t have the horses to stay with the big boys like WMU does. Talent and experience should prevail.
What To Watch Out For: If you haven’t heard of Alex Carder, you might want to start paying attention. The 6’2”, 224 junior has already passed for over 1,400 yards and twelve touchdowns this year to go with just four interceptions. And its not like he’s done it against the sisters of the poor with the schedule WMU has had to navigate so far this year. When Carder does throw (and that will be often), he will be looking for his primary target Jordan White who already has over 668 receiving yards and five touchdowns. The tandem should have fun.
Call it a battle of wills because the Falcons have been very tough against aerial bombings this year. So far, the experience of the BGSU secondary has more than held its own against both the weaker and stiffer competition. Call this one a challenge as well. Bowling Green won’t be able to hold down the passing game of the Broncos unless it can get in the backfield and force Carder into some mistakes. Look for the defensive minds to come up with a plan to bring pressure up the middle by way of their most talented defensive player LB Dwayne Woods in hopes that he cant disrupt things. He should be turned loose on the QB since the running game plays second fiddle to the laser beams expecting to be unleashed by Western Michigan. But will it work?
What Will Happen: This should be a fun game to watch. Both teams have been able to spread the defense out and play pass and catch with some regular consistency. Western Michigan will follow the familiar script and come off the bus firing away and move the chains early and often. Bowling Green has enough of a pass defense to make things uncomfortable at times, but Carder will still put up big numbers when it’s all said and done. The Falcons on the other hand will move the ball, but not with as much success and have to settle for FGs instead of TDs. In the end, WMU is just too powerful of an offense, and the Falcons won’t be able to keep up.
CFN Prediction: Western Michigan 34 … Bowling Green 20
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Western Michigan -10 O/U: 60
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