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Arkansas State 24 … at ULM 19
Posted Oct 8, 2011

Week 6 CFN Fearless Prediction & Game Story - Arkansas State at ULM

2011 Predictions & Game Story 

Week 6 - Arkansas State at ULM

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Oct. 8 Arkansas State 24 … at ULM 19
CFN Analysis: The Red Wolves were sloppy with 13 penalties and four turnovers, but they got the blocked punt needed late in the third quarter to turn the game around and the defense did just enough to hold on. Dwayne Frampton was phenomenal, catching 13 passes for 147 yards and a score, and Kelcie McCray was terrific with six tackles to go along with his two picks, but overall, this is a game to forget. ASU was bad; ULM was worse.

ULM really isn’t that bad but it’s finding ways to lose. The offense can’t find anything that consistently works, and even when the passing game moves a bit, like it did against ASU, the mistakes wouldn’t stop. A special teams breakdown, allowing a blocked punt for a score, and giving up four turnovers all but gave the game away. The Warhawks aren’t getting anything out of their running backs and Kolton Browning isn’t doing enough to pick up the slack and carry the team. Winning the home game was a must with three road games in the next four including dates at Troy and North Texas over the next two weeks.

(AP) MONROE, La. -- Defense and the passing game helped Arkansas State rally in the second half to beat Louisiana-Monroe 24-19 on Saturday night.

Arkansas State (4-2, 2-0 Sun Belt Conference) trailed 13-10 at halftime but took the lead for good when Don Jones blocked a punt and returned it 25 yards for a touchdown with 4:01 to play in the third quarter. A 44-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Aplin to Dwayne Frampton extended the Red Wolves' lead to 24-13 with 13:51 left.

Frampton caught a school-record 13 passes to break his own record of 12 set last season. He had 147 yards receiving, the third straight game Frampton has had at least 100 yards receiving.

Both teams forced four turnovers, including three interceptions each.

Brent Leonard caught 10 passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns for the Warhawks (2-4, 0-1), including an 11-yarder with 2:53 to play.

Arkansas State (3-2) at ULM (1-3) Oct. 8, 7:00

Here’s The Deal … Both ASU and ULM have the same goal in mind this season, winning the Sun Belt Conference, and both have a great chance to make that happen. These are two of the better teams in the league, and this is an early conference matchup that will have a significant bearing on how it all shakes out at the end of the year.

ASU picked up its first conference win of the season last week in a nail-biter on the road against Western Kentucky, one of the bottom dwellers of the SBC. The Red Wolves will be on the road for a second straight week and will be facing a significant step up in competition.

ULM only has one victory on the year, and that came against FCS opponent Grambling State, but don’t let the record fool you. The Warhawk’s three losses have all come on the road against Florida State, TCU, and Iowa. This game should be close throughout, and the winner will join ULL, FIU and Troy among the favorites for the conference crown.

Why Arkansas State Might Win: ASU has done a great job moving the ball in the early season. The passing game, led by QB Ryan Aplin is averaging 312 yards per game and ranks 18th in the country. Aplin has a couple of star wide receivers to work with in Dwayne Frampton and Josh Jarboe, and they should connect early and often against the 102nd ranked ULM pass defense. While the Red Wolves offense has been impressive, the defense has done a fantastic job as well. They haven’t allowed a single rusher over 100 yards this season, and that includes RB David Taylor of Virginia Tech and Bobby Rainey of WKU, two of the premier backs in the country. They should be able to stuff a weak Warhawk running game that has done next to nothing this year.

Why ULM Might Win: ULM has won 10 of its last 12 home games, which is the second best home winning percentage of any Louisiana team over that time span. While the Warhawk passing defense has struggled this year, the rushing defense has actually been very tough at the point of attack. ASU has a decent run game, but if ULM’s defense can force the Red Wolves to be one-dimensional then the Warhawks may be able to force turnovers from a mistake prone ASU offense that ranks near the bottom in turnover margin. If ULM can catch a few breaks and connect on some long passing plays, the running game should open up.

What To Watch Out For: Special Teams. ASU has a star kicker in Brian Davis who connected on six field goals in one game earlier this year and is one of the leading scorers in the country. For ULM, they have been one of the worst teams in the country so far on special teams, especially punting the football, so the Warhawks will need to make sure they do not consistently lose the field position battle.

What Will Happen: ASU appears to be the better team, but do not discount ULM playing in a big conference game at home. ULM QB Kolton Browning will try to air it out, and the Warhawks will score on a few big plays, but it will not be enough to thwart the ASU surge in what will end up being a shootout. Aplin will throw over 40 times in the game and rack up over 350 yards passing, and the Red Wolves will pull away in the fourth quarter.

CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 38 … ULM 28
- Click For Latest Line From ATS: Arkansas State -2.5   O/U: 53.5

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