2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 7 - Indiana at Wisconsin
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Indiana (1-5) at Wisconsin (5-0) Oct. 15, 12:00, ESPN2/ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … It’s time to see if the machine can keep on rolling and to see just how focused the Badgers really are.
Last year, UW flexed its muscle and hung 83 on the Hoosiers, and this year’s IU team is worse. The Hoosiers are 1-5 with the lone win coming against South Carolina State, and while there were close calls against Penn State, Virginia, Ball State and North Texas, but there were losses to Ball State and North Texas. The defense has improved a bit and isn’t all that bad, but the offense is sputtering and struggling to go on a steady and consistent drives. Wisconsin isn’t having that problem.
After the dominant win over Nebraska, the Badgers are being thrown included in the national title discussion along with LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, but now they’re in a fight for position. Head coach Bret Bielema preaches the idea of going 1-0 each week, but appearances matter. With Stanford, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Clemson to battle with for position in the rankings, big, splashy numbers matter, and Bielema isn’t afraid to pound away on the weak and sad to make a statement. With road games at Michigan State and Ohio State coming up next, the more confidence after two weeks off from the Nebraska game, the better
Indiana pulled off a shocker over a good Badger team in 2002, winning 32-29 a year after coming up with a 63-32 blowout in Camp Randall. Winning this year would be even more of a stunner, but the Hoosiers are simply looking to get better each week. First year head coach Kevin Wilson is sorting out what he has to work with, and while his team has lost four games by seven points or fewer, it’s still miles away from being a player in the Big Ten race.
Can and will Wisconsin crank out 83 again? It’ll be worth the watch to see the fireworks.
Why Indiana Might Win: Finally, Wisconsin has to face a real, live, wide receiver. Damarlo Belcher has hardly exploded this year, catching just 23 passes for 265 yards and a score, and he was held to three catches for 30 yards last year, but he’s an NFL talent with the ability and the potential to rip up a sketchy Wisconsin secondary that’s still trying to piece things together at corner. UW might be sixth in the nation in pass defense, but Northern Illinois is the only team it’s faced with a passing game. IU will try to bomb away.
For all of Indiana’s problems on defense, it’s doing a great job of taking the ball away with 13 takeaways with nine forced fumbles in the last five games. The only way this stays close is by winning the turnover battle by at least +2, and while Wisconsin has been stingy with the ball so far, there’s a chance it could come in a bit unfocused and a bit cocky with the big battles up next and after two weeks of getting its back patted after the Nebraska win.
Why Wisconsin Might Win: The offense hasn’t even been close to being stopped. How tight has the Badger attack been? UW is second in the nation in third down conversion percentage – converting 62% of the time while Indiana converts just 41% of the time. The competition hasn’t always been special, but the offense is a machine outscoring teams 242 to 51 with a ruthlessly efficient and effective attack. Indiana just doesn’t have the offense to keep up the pace.
Indiana’s biggest defensive problem so far has been a line that can’t get into the backfield and can’t hold up against the run. The Hoosiers have been a disaster against decent offensive line, getting pounded on and blown past by both spread offenses and power games, while the pass rush has only generated five sacks and is among the worst in the nation in tackles for loss. On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin isn’t great at getting into the backfield, but IU has allowed a Big Ten-high 18 sacks so far.
What To Watch Out For: Who’s going to play quarterback for the Hoosiers? Dusty Kiel hasn’t been accurate and he’s struggled to get the offense moving, but he has also shown a little promise going forward. He’s hurting with an ankle injury, while Edward Wright-Baker, the team’s leading passer, was also out against Illinois with an ankle problem. If both of them are still hurting, true freshman Tre Roberson will come in after giving it a shot against Illinois, completing 11-of-17 passes for 148 yards and a pick, and running for 36 yards and a score. If he’s the man, he’s not going to get the ball down the field against the Badgers, but he’ll take off from time to time.
Last year, UW running back Montee Ball ran 22 times for 167 yards and three scores in the win over IU, but in a perfect world he’s not used so much this week to keep him healthy for Michigan State. So far he’s been among the nation’s best runners with 13 touchdown dashes in the first five games including four against the Huskers. He’s reading the hole even better than last year and he’s even more decisive with his cuts. Throw in his receiving touchdown, and he’s on pace to score over 33 times.
What Will Happen: Wisconsin will put it away in the first quarter with the only question being how big a number it wants to put on the board. Indiana’s defense hasn’t been awful, but it’s about to get pounded on. The Hoosier offensive line will be the bigger problem.
CFN Prediction: Wisconsin 51 … Indiana 13
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Wisconsin -39.5 O/U: 60.5
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