2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 7 - Oklahoma State at Texas
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Oct. 15 Oklahoma State 38 … at Texas 26
CFN Analysis: It wasn’t the normally explosive Oklahoma State effort, outside of the 74-yard Jeremy Smith touchdown dash and a Justin Gilbert kickoff return for a score, but the offense still did enough to get ahead in the second quarter and stay there. Brandon Weeden didn’t have a great day, but he didn’t force any throws and didn’t make any big mistakes, taking what the Longhorns gave him to do just enough to get by. However, he wasn’t great on third downs and the offense didn’t do enough to hold on to the ball to give the defense much rest. That was okay, though, as the D did a nice job of getting pressure in the backfield and came up with three takeaways and enough stops in the second half to get out with the win. It might not have looked pretty, but the Cowboys won at Texas for the second year in a row.
Did David Ash do enough to keep the starting quarterback job all to himself? He wasn’t bad against a decent OSU defense, but he wasn’t decisive enough on his throws and he didn’t get anything going deep, but it wasn’t a horrible performance completing 22-of-40 passes for 139 yards with two picks. The story for the offense was Malcolm Brown, who looked every bit the star he’s expected to become with 135 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries, while Mike Davis caught ten passes and reestablished himself as a No. 1 target. The defense continues to have problems getting into the backfield and it isn’t nearly strong enough in the secondary to make up for the lack of a pass rush, but overall this wasn’t a bad day.
(AP) AUSTIN, Texas -- Jeremy Smith ran for 140 yards and scored on two long touchdown runs and No. 6 Oklahoma State beat No. 22 Texas 38-26 on Saturday.
Smith went 30 and 74 yards for scores and Justin Gilbert returned the third quarter kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. Gilbert tied the Oklahoma State (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) school record for career kickoff TD returns with four.
Fozzy Whittaker had a 100-yard touchdown return on the ensuing kickoff for Texas, but the Longhorns (4-2, 1-2) never led and lost for the sixth time in their last 10 homes games.
Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden passed for 218 yards with a touchdown to Justin Blackmon.
Texas freshman quarterback David Ash got his first career start and took every snap in the loss after rotating with sophomore Case McCoy the previous three weeks.
Oklahoma State (5-0) at Texas (4-1) Oct. 15, 3:30, ABC/ESPN/ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … There were several down moments for Texas in the disaster of a 2010 season, but the loss to Oklahoma State was particularly galling. To lose to Baylor and Iowa State was embarrassing, and the loss to Texas A&M wasn’t unexpected after the way things were going, but losing to the Cowboys at home showed the program really had lost its mojo. Not only did Texas always beat Oklahoma State, but it almost always did it in soul-crushing fashion.
Before last year’s 33-16 loss, Texas had won 12 straight going back to 1997 with epic comebacks, easy blowouts, late stops, and just about every other way a team can beat another team 17 out of 18 times since 1944.
Things have changed in a big way, and now Oklahoma State is in the hunt for the national title while Texas is playing the role of dangerous upstart. OSU joins Oklahoma, Alabama, and LSU as one of only four teams in America that controls its own destiny. If the Cowboys win out and go 12-0, they’re in. First, they have several big landmines to sidestep before the Oklahoma showdown at the end of the regular season, and it starts in Austin with the first of four road games in the next six.
The offense leads the nation in scoring after going through the motions on the way to 70 points against Kansas, and it’s second in the nation behind Houston in total offense and passing offense. Week after week the Cowboys are putting on an offensive show, and they’re going to blow away anyone who can’t get off the bus with an offense able to crank out 500 yards and 35 points without breathing hard.
Texas has the makings of a terrific, national title-level offense … in 2013. The stars at the skill spots are extremely talented and extremely young, and they’re going through the expected growing pains. The 55-17 beatdown from Oklahoma last week was on the defense, and the offense showed how far it has to go to be special. But that was against the No. 1 team in America, or at least one of the top three. Oklahoma State is close to being that good, and after what the Sooners did, this game is a measuring stick.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Texas simply doesn’t have the offensive pop to keep up the pace, but the bigger problem might be a defense that might have been exposed. Landry Jones threw for 367 yards and three scores, highlighted by a frighteningly effective march at the end of the first half to close out a 28-point second quarter to put the game away. The Texas defensive backs were helpless, the pass rush didn’t get to Jones, and in seven plays the OU offense did whatever it wanted.
Oklahoma State’s offense is just as efficient and effective with the explosion and efficiency to march up and down the field in a hiccup.
Texas has thrown for 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns in five games. OSU has thrown for almost twice as many yards so far this year and got seven touchdown passes last week alone. The Longhorns just don’t have the firepower.
Defensively, the Longhorns don’t have much of a pass rush, and it proved to be disastrous against OU. The OSU line is doing a terrific job of keeping the immobile Brandon Weeden upright, and if Texas can’t manufacture pressure from a variety of angles and spots, it’ll be the Red River Rivalry all over again.
Why Texas Might Win: If the improved Texas offensive line was ever going to blast away for the ground game, this would be the time. The Oklahoma State defensive front has been strong at applying pressure and has been great at getting into the backfield, but teams have been able to run the ball a bit. The problem for most teams is the Oklahoma State offense; most teams get down and have to start throwing to try to come back.
Tulsa blew off the passing game and kept on running in the bizarre marathon loss, and it finished with 365 yards and two scores. Texas A&M ripped up the Cowboys on the ground in the first half of its 30-29 loss, and then couldn’t do much in the second half panic once OSU took control. Texas has the running back in Malcolm Brown, and it has mobile quarterbacks who can take off from time to time, and the offense has to use everyone to keep the chains moving and keep the Cowboy attack off the field.
All the pressure will be on OSU. The Cowboys are supposed to win the game in a walk and they’re supposed to do what Oklahoma did last week. This is still a home game for the Longhorns, and this is still a series owned by the team wearing burnt orange. On straight talent, Texas has the four and five star types and the NFL-caliber athletes to hang around with OSU. The Cowboys are more mature and more consistent, but that doesn’t mean the Longhorns don’t have the potential to come up with a strong performance. For all the good things OSU has done, it only has one really solid win, and it took a big-time comeback against A&M, and a major collapse, to get it.
What To Watch Out For: The nice part about being a corner on a team with a high-powered offense is the chance to make several big plays. Teams have to try to bomb away to keep up with Oklahoma State, and the defensive backs are coming up with their share of nice moments. Junior Broderick Brown isn’t all that big at 5-8 and 182 pounds, but he’s one of the best all-around cover-corners in the Big 12, finishing second on the team with 77 stops last year with two picks and eight broken up passes. This year he has 17 tackles while surpassing last year’s pick total with three, getting one in each of the last three games. Also a member of the OSU track team, he has the speed to stay with anyone in the conference.
The Longhorns desperately need someone on the defensive line to hit a quarterback. Sophomore Calvin Howell came up with a sack last week against OU, and Alex Okafor got a sack against Iowa State, but that’s been about it. Linebacker Emmanuel Acho leads the team with two sacks, and the defense has seven total sacks in the first five games. Last year after the first five dates UT made 16 sacks with 44 tackles for loss.
What Will Happen: Welcome to Round Two. Oklahoma State doesn’t have the defense Oklahoma has, and Texas will have far more luck offensively and should put up terrific numbers, but it won’t be nearly enough. Weeden will throw for 400 yards spreading the ball around with frightening efficiency and effectiveness, and Texas won’t be able to keep up.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 38 … Texas 23
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Oklahoma State -7.5 O/U: 64.5
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