2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 7 - UCF at SMU
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Oct. 15 at SMU 38 … UCF 17
CFN Analysis: Call this the big statement for SMU and its run to a possible Conference USA title. J.J. McDermott stayed hot completing 358 yards and two scores with a pick, and Zach Line ran well with 82 yards and two scores, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, against the terrific UCF defensive front. The key was the play of the offensive line. UCF hasn’t been getting to the quarterback enough, but the SMU front five that’s been mediocre in pass protection didn’t allow a sack or a tackle for loss. Now on a five game winning streak, there’s no letting up with yet another test against Southern Miss on the road before going to Tulsa. The Houston game is well down the road, but if the Mustangs can beat the Golden Eagles next week, all of a sudden, they’ll be more of a national story.
What happened to the UCF defensive front? The special teams have been a nightmare, and the passing game has been sketchy at times, but the defensive line has been a puzzling problem over the last few weeks with no pressure and not enough production against the run. Jeff Godfrey wasn’t bad, completing 23-of-32 passes for 231 yards and a score, but Blake Bortles was a bit better completing 9-of-12 passes for 1198 yards and a score. Even so, it was still a disastrous loss that all but ends any hopes to repeat. Fortunately, UAB and Memphis are up next to quickly turn the record back around after losing three of the last four games.
(AP) DALLAS -- J.J. McDermott threw for 358 yards and two touchdowns to lead SMU to a 38-17 victory against UCF on Saturday.
Cole Beasley caught 10 passes for 134 yards and a TD, and Zach Line rushed for two scores for the Mustangs (5-1, 3-0 Conference USA).
UCF (3-3, 1-1) closed to within 24-10 early in the fourth quarter on Jeff Godfrey's 27-yard touchdown pass to Josh Reese. But on the next play from scrimmage, McDermott hit Der'rikk Thompson with a 72-yard scoring pass.
McDermott was 20 of 31 against the Golden Knights, who came into the game as the only FBS team that had not allowed a passing touchdown.
He remained undefeated as the first-string quarterback. McDermott came off the bench in SMU's season-opening loss against Texas A&M and has started since, throwing for 1,064 yards and nine TDs the last three games.
Godfrey was 23 of 32 for 231 yards.
Richard Crawford returned a second-quarter punt 92 yards for a touchdown for SMU.
UCF (3-2) at SMU (4-1) Oct. 15, 3:30, FSN
Here’s The Deal … East meets West in an intriguing rematch of last year’s Conference USA title game. Defensive-based UCF is the reigning league champ. High-powered SMU is coming off a monster signature win. En garde. The Mustangs became the talk of the conference after knocking off nationally-ranked TCU in Fort Worth, 40-33, for their fourth win in-a-row. It was another significant building block for June Jones, who’s weaving yet another impressive story in his remarkable coaching career. The Knights used visiting Marshall last weekend to get back on track following back-to-back road losses to Florida International and BYU. It wasn’t pretty, but it was a necessary first step for a program that seemed to have lost its way toward the latter half of September. It’s been an interesting past couple of weeks away from the field as well for the Knights, which have been linked to a possible invitation to fill one of the openings in the Big East.
Why UCF Might Win: From a statistical perspective, the Knights defense is right up there with Alabama and LSU. Now, the unit clearly doesn’t harbor the depth and talent of the Tide or the Tigers, but by Conference USA standards, it’s as stingy as it gets. UCF is giving up a mere 10 points a game, a figure that would be even lower if the offense and special teams eliminated some mistakes. Despite being thrown on 135 times, the Josh Robinson-led secondary is the last one in America that’s yet to allow a touchdown pass. Plus, with linebackers Jonathan Davis and Josh Linam roaming the field like hawks, the Knights are giving up a measly 177 yards a game.
Why SMU Might Win: Countering that stingy UCF defense will be Jones’ offense, a balanced attack that’s scored 40 or more points in each of the last three games. In the win over the Horned Frogs, the Mustangs got 120 yards on the ground from Zach Line, and a career-best performance out of QB J.J. McDermott. The senior, who supplanted Kyle Padron in the opening day loss to Texas A&M, peppered the TCU defense for 349 yards and four touchdown passes. His corps of receivers, headed by Darius Johnson, will give the Knights defensive backfield its best workout of the year. As second bananas go, the SMU defense is playing much better than the UCF offense.
What To Watch Out For: To win in Dallas, UCF must run the ball successfully; it’s passing under Jeff Godfrey just doesn’t possess enough pop. The problem for the Knights and its deep stable of backs will be navigating an underrated SMU defense giving up just 85 yards a game. The front seven, featuring DE Taylor Thompson and LB Taylor Reed, have done a nice job of cutting off running lanes before a play can develop. Godfrey is at his best on play-action, and when the passing game is a complement to the running of Brynn Harvey, Ronnie Weaver and Latavius Murray.
What Will Happen: On Saturday, revenge will be a dish served best on the Hilltop. Surging SMU will turn back UCF, avenging last December loss on the league championship game. The Knights will provide a tough test because of their D, but the Mustangs are the more complete team at this stage. They’ll not only put up points, but make key stops as well. A more confident McDermott, coupled with the running of Line, will put enough dents in the Knights to extend the winning streak to five games.
CFN Prediction: SMU 24 … UCF 17
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SMU -4 O/U: 44
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