2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 7 - Kansas State at Texas Tech
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Oct. 15 Kansas State 41 … at Texas Tech 34
CFN Analysis: Relentless. Kansas State had its chances to fold, and there were times when the offense wasn’t working, but the defense kept hanging on, hanging on, hanging on, and the Texas Tech screwed up. The early interceptions helped, and finishing +4 in turnover margin was a big plus, but it was the play of quarterback Collin Klein, who had an effective 12-of-18 passing day for 146 yards and a score, while running for 110 yards and three scores and seemingly converting on every big third down chance. The ten penalties were a problem that have to be corrected, and the defense gave up almost 600 yards of total offense, but somehow, helped by a brilliant kickoff return for a score from Tyler Lockett and a Nigel Malone pick six, the Wildcats did just enough to get the win and go for 6-0 with a date at Kansas up next.
Seth Doege didn’t make many mistakes all season long, but his three interceptions – after coming into the game fifth in the nation in turnover margin - proved to be a problem and a big breakdown in kick coverage – after coming into the game ninth in kickoff returns - ruined a big offensive day. The Red Raiders outgained the Wildcats 580 yards to 339, and Doege completed 43 passes for KSU’s 12, but the defense couldn’t come up with the big third down stops it needed in the second half and the offense couldn’t get into the end zone with two field goals and no touchdowns. If this wasn’t tough enough, the Red Raiders have to go to Oklahoma next. However, if the turnovers stop and Doege doesn’t throw a slew of picks, Tech will have a shot. Getting more pressure into the backfield is also a must.
(AP) LUBBOCK, Texas -- Kansas State coach Bill Snyder is working on another Miracle in Manhattan, one small stroke at a time.
"Our coach says all the time you've just got to keep sawing wood and eventually you're going to get somewhere," said Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein, who ran for three touchdowns and threw for another as the surprising 17th-ranked Wildcats came from behind to beat Texas Tech 41-34 on Saturday night. "It makes it exciting because we're hanging together. That's the most important thing."
Klein ran for 110 yards on 23 carries, scoring on three short runs and hitting Chris Harper for a 3-yard TD pass on the Wildcats (6-0, 3-0) first drive of the third quarter.
Tyler Lockett returned a kickoff 100 yards early in the second quarter for the Wildcats, who are undefeated after six games for the first time since 2000.
Snyder turned once-lowly Kansas State into a national title contender in the 1990s and came out of retirement three years ago to rebuild the Wildcats again.
He said he saw the turnaround in his team's gumption after halftime.
"They play with determination, they play with mental toughness, they play with discipline that falters some times," he said. "But they are diligently trying."
Texas Tech (4-2, 1-2) was held to two field goals in the second half.
Red Raiders coach Tommy Tuberville said the Wildcats were true to form.
"They don't do anything special," he said. "They took advantage of their opportunities and we didn't take advantage of ours. We had too many missed opportunities."
Seth Doege had 461 yards and a touchdown on 43-of-63 passing, but had three of his four turnovers in consecutive possessions in the fourth quarter. He also ran for a score. He had just one interception coming into the game.
"I want them all back," Doege said. "All of them were pretty stupid on my part. As a quarterback one of our jobs is to protect the ball and I did a poor job of that tonight."
After Texas Tech's field goal late in the game to pull within 41-34, the Red Raiders recovered an onside kick when Tremain Swindall fell on the ball at their own 47. But Doege and the offense seemed to rush and failed to get a first down after running four plays.
The Wildcats, who appeared flat in the first half, came out with more energy after halftime. On Kansas State's first possession Klein put together the Wildcats' longest drive of the game, capping it with a fade to the corner of the end zone to Harper to lead 28-27. The TD pass was set up after Klein scrambled out of the pocket for a 25-yard gain to the 3.
Kansas State held the ball for 33:33, while Tech's high-powered offense had it for 26:27.
Kansas State stayed close in the first half but only because of its defense and special teams. The offense mustered just 94 yards, less than half of those on the ground. Texas Tech's defense was tough against the Wildcats run, allowing Kansas State's 26th-ranked rushing offense just 45 yards on 18 carries in the first half.
The plan was to chew up the clock and not let Texas Tech's offense on the field. The Red Raiders, instead, had the ball 2 minutes longer in the first half.
Doege was hot in the first half. He completed 25 of 34 passes for 296 yards, his best first-half of the season.
After Lockett's kick return TD in the second quarter, Anthony Cantele missed the extra point to cut the deficit to 14-13. Lockett took the ball straight up the middle and into a pile of Red Raiders at about the 50. Suddenly, though, he was out front of the pile and outraced them all to the corner of the end zone.
The Wildcats blocked two field goals, setting up a touchdown with the second. Raphael Guidry blocked the kick and Nigel Malone picked it up and returned it 30 yards to the Texas Tech 46. Klein put Kansas State up 20-14 when he scored from a yard out.
The Wildcats jumped to a 7-0 lead when Malone got his fourth interception of the season, picking off Doege's second pass of the game and ran it 24 yards for the score. He stepped in front of Bradley Marquis as if he'd read Doege's mind and scampered untouched into the end zone.
Doege quickly redeemed himself, finding Cornelius Douglas over the middle for a 40-yard touchdown pass to make it 7-7 midway through the first quarter.
Kansas State (5-0) at Texas Tech (4-1) Oct. 15, 7:00, FSN
Here’s The Deal … What’s it going to take for Kansas State to start getting any love? This might not be a sexy offensive team like Oklahoma State, and it might not have the NFL talent across the board like Oklahoma, but a case could be made that the road win over Miami and home victories over Baylor and Missouri form the base of a nice résumé that deserves more credit and respect.
The last time KSU started the season 6-0 was in 2000, and it went on to lose the Big 12 title game before blowing away Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl. This team is starting to take on the same kind of look with a good combination of runners in the backfield, a strong defense with an emerging superstar in Arthur Brown at linebacker, and enough key plays in big moments to get by.
Maybe it’s because it took a last second stop to beat Miami, and maybe it’s because it took a late pick to get past Baylor, and maybe it’s because the Wildcats could just as easily be 1-4 as they are 5-0 – don’t forget about the close call against Eastern Kentucky – but no one is putting them in the mix for the Big 12 championship. That could all start to change with a win over Texas Tech and a 7-0 start – the Wildcats will beat Kansas next week – before hosting Oklahoma.
The Red Raiders had their chances in a second half rally against Texas A&M, but they came up short in a thrilling 45-40 loss and now they need a big win with a trip to Oklahoma up next. The jury is still out on just how good they are after struggling to beat Nevada and Kansas, but the offense is working, the passing game is thrilling, and the defense is having its moments, even though it’s giving up yards and points in bunches over the last three week. This is a defining moment considering so many of the Big 12 big boys are still left on the slate. There are only two more home games after this one – Iowa State and Oklahoma State – and Tech can’t afford to give any away.
Why Kansas State Might Win: The offense isn’t screwing up at all, and the team isn’t making any big mistakes. The Wildcats gave the ball away five times against Eastern Kentucky to start the season, and they haven’t lost a fumble since and they’ve only given away two picks. The penalties have been kept to a minimum, there haven’t been many mental errors, and both sides of the ball have been sound and panic-free. Kansas State is going to run the ball, and it’s going to run it well on the bad Texas Tech defensive front.
Texas Tech’s run defense was bad last year, and while it’s generating a little more pressure into the backfield this year, it’s not stopping anyone. Everyone’s getting fat off the Red Raider front seven with few problems pounding away, not just Nevada’s great running game, with Texas A&M effective and Kansas running without a problem. The Wildcat offensive line hasn’t been great in pass protection, but it’s creating the holes and the space needed to get quarterback Collin Klein and running back John Hubert room to move. The KSU defense is fine on its own, but it’s helped by an offense that owns the clock by hanging on to the ball for a nation-leading 35:57 per game.
Why Texas Tech Might Win: The air show is going to keep on flying. Kansas State might be playing well overall defensively, and it’s doing a great job against the run, but it was picked clean by Robert Griffin and Baylor, Missouri’s James Franklin had few problems, and Miami’s Jacory Harris was terrific at times finishing with 272 yards on 21-of-31 passes. Yes, Kansas State will control the clock with its running game, and yes, the yards will be there in chunks, but Texas Tech will also throw the ball without much of a problem against a defensive back seven that’ll give up catches and midrange yards.
No, Kansas State isn’t screwing up, but Texas Tech isn’t making any mistakes, either. Despite throwing the ball 237 times, the Red Raiders have only given away one interception and the running game hasn’t lost a fumble in three games. Penalties are a huge issue – committing 17 against Kansas – but Tech isn’t going to give away any freebee turnovers.
What To Watch Out For: If it’s possible, Texas Tech might lean even more on the passing game. Eric Stephens has been terrific, running for 100 yards or more in every game but the New Mexico win, running for 92 yards before coming out early in a blowout. He got hurt against Texas A&M with a knee injury, and now it might be up to Seth Doege to throw it 70 times instead of the 66 times he pitched it against A&M. He’s not making any mistakes, but he’s been helped by Stephens to hand off to around 20 times a game.
Kansas State is getting a great start to the season out 6-3, 240-pound senior Jordan Voelker, a little-used reserve who has turned into the team’s top pass rusher. The former walk-on from the JUCO ranks made eight tackles in five games last year and wasn’t considered to be not a high end pass rushing prospect with a great motor. However, he leads the team with four sacks and five tackles for loss with 16 tackles, and he has to be ready to get to Doege from time to time.
What Will Happen: Will anyone start to believe in Kansas State? They will after this game as Texas Tech will sputter early like it did against Kansas, but this time won’t pour it on in the second half. The Wildcat offense will be in control all game long, and while it’ll have to withstand a run, in the end the formula will still work and Bill Snyder’s team will generate more of a national buzz.
CFN Prediction: Kansas State 34 … Texas Tech 30
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Texas Tech -3 O/U: 59.5
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