2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 7 - New Mexico at Nevada
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Oct. 15 at Nevada 49 … New Mexico 7
CFN Analysis: It was a dominant effort on both sides of the ball as Cody Fajardo led the way with a 20-of-25 passing day while the ground game pounded away for 338 yards and six scores. Getting up 21-0 early, the Wolf Pack rolled from there with several backups getting in key work. The defense didn’t take any chances and it didn’t do anything to try to get behind the line because it didn’t have to. Against Fresno State, though, the D line will have to come up with its strongest game of the season and has to get to the quarterback more. After the last two weeks against UNLV and now New Mexico, everything is humming at the right time with three more home games coming up in the next four.
It’s fair to say that the cupboard is a bit bare after the coaching issues. Nothing worked against Nevada with B.R. Holbrook and Tarean Austin combining to completed 11-of-29 passes for 89 yards with a pick. Austin is at least getting things moving a bit on the ground, and for an offense that needs playmakers, he’s worth developing. Right now the team needs to find something positive. The defense isn’t even close against the run and the secondary isn’t getting any help from the pass rush. Things are going from bad to worse when TCU, Air Force, and San Diego State up next. If the Lobos an stay within 20 of any of them, it’ll be a positive.
(AP) RENO, Nev. -- Cody Fajardo passed for 203 yards and scored two rushing touchdowns to lead Nevada past New Mexico 49-7 on Saturday.
Lampford Mark had three short touchdown runs as the Wolf Pack (3-3) rolled up 598 yards of total offense. The Lobos (0-6) did not score until the game's final minutes.
Mark had 9-yard, 4-yard and 1-yard touchdown runs for Nevada, which led 28-0 at halftime and 42-0 after three quarters.
Stefphon Jefferson led the Wolf Pack in rushing yards with 108, plus a touchdown. Nevada totaled 338 yards on the ground.
The Lobos' lone score came when backup quarterback Tarean Austin went around right end from 17 yards out with 6:38 left in the game.
The Wolf Pack also scored a defensive touchdown when Marlon Johnson scooped up a Deon Long fumble and returned it 25 yards for a score to make it 21-0 in the first quarter.
New Mexico (0-5) at Nevada (2-3) Oct. 15, 4:05, ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … For those of you looking forward to the rematch of the 2007 New Mexico Bowl, a 23-0 New Mexico win, your dream has come true.
Since that win, the Lobos have been a disaster going 6-35, while Nevada has won 30 games since then and has been consistently solid. This year, though, the Wolf Pack hasn’t been able to quite find its footing, but that’s what happens when you play Oregon, Texas Tech, and Boise State on the road.
Is this the class team of the WAC? It’ll get a chance to find out right away with Fresno State and Hawaii coming to Reno over the next few weeks, but first it gets a shot at a tune up game against a miserable program trying to pick up the pieces and rebuild to the days of a few years ago when going to a bowl game wasn’t such a far-fetched dream.
The George Barlow era didn’t get off to a hot start as New Mexico lost to New Mexico State the week after Mike Locksley was axed. The Lobos aren’t getting anything out of the defense, the offense isn’t able to keep up, and now they’re on an eight game losing streak going into a nasty part of the slate.
Over the next month, the Lobos have to go on the road for three of the four game facing TCU and San Diego State wrapped around a date with Air Force, but first, they have to deal with a Wolf Pack team that’s starting to get its offense rolling and should start to put up big numbers with the schedule easing up.
Why New Mexico Might Win: The only way the Lobos have a chance is by winning the turnover margin in a big way, and there’s a chance against a Pack attack that’s given the ball away 14 times so far. The offense might have rolled in the easy win over UNLV, but it gave the ball away five times and turned it over seven times over the last two weeks. New Mexico hasn’t exactly been tight with the ball, but it’s only given it away twice in the last two games and four times in the last four games. Offensively, the Lobo passing game isn’t all that bad, chucking in comeback mode for 262 yards per game, but …
Why Nevada Might Win: The Wolf Pack pass defense has been excellent. Even though the defense has dealt with Texas Tech and Boise State, the pass defense is tenth in the nation allowing just 175 yards per game and isn’t giving up too many big plays. New Mexico isn’t running consistently well enough to keep control of the ball to keep the Wolf Pack attack off the field and the defense hasn’t even been close so far. The Lobo defensive front has been a disaster and isn’t getting any pressure into the backfield, and if Nevada’s running game gets time to work, it’ll be ultra-effective. Sam Houston State ran for 373 yards and five touchdowns, and Nevada should be able to do that without too much of a problem if the offensive line gets into a lather early.
What To Watch Out For: New Mexico has a few playmakers to build around for the near future. Redshirt freshman Deon Long has been a find, catching nine passes for 209 yards and three touchdowns against Sam Houston State and ripping up Texas Tech for 139 yards on three catches. Against NMSU he was part of the midrange passing game, catching six passes for 94 yards. A strong kickoff returner, he’s dangerous whenever he gets the ball in his hands.
Nevada defensive line man Brett Roy will be on several midseason All-America lists. The senior has been a steady pass rusher with a sack in every game so far and two against Texas Tech, while coming up with 38 tackles including 11 last week against UNLV. Ultra-active in the backfield, he should be able to dominate against the porous New Mexico offensive interior and he should be able to disrupt any timing in the Lobo passing game.
What Will Happen: Nevada is overdue to go ballistic. The running game has been fine, but now it gets back RB Mike Ball from an ankle injury and it should be able to crank out yards in chunks against the awful Lobo defensive front. New Mexico has had two weeks to prepare, but it won’t have any answers.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 52 … New Mexico 17
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Nevada -30 O/U: 62.5
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