2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 7 - ULM at Troy
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Oct. 15 ULM 38 … at Troy 10
CFN Analysis: ULM was close to being solid, but the schedule wasn’t exactly a breeze. The D was terrific against Troy, but it was Kolton Browning and the offensive explosion in the second half that was the difference. He was phenomenal, completing 23-of-31 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns, while running for 33 yards as the offense rolled on the way to the shocking blowout win. The defense camped out in the backfield and held Troy to -14 net yards rushing while allowing 126 yards of total offense. This was the team’s best performance in years, and now it’s time to go on a run with North Texas and Western Kentucky up next.
Uh oh. Troy had been struggling a bit, but the passing game and the offense weren’t a problem. The offensive line was destroyed by the ULM line and the running game didn’t go anywhere. The passing attack didn’t go anywhere with Corey Robinson completing just 19-of-34 passes for 120 yards with two picks, and the offense barely moved the ball with just nine first downs. This was a total disaster coming off the loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, but things might get even worse with road games at FIU and Navy up next.
(AP) TROY, Ala. -- Kolton Browning threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns as Louisiana-Monroe beat Troy 38-10 in Sun Belt Conference play Saturday.
Down 10-3 early in the third quarter, ULM (2-4, 1-1 Sun Belt) scored 28 unanswered points. Jyruss Edwards scored on a 1-yard run, Browning hit Tavarese Maye with a 38-yard touchdown pass and threw a 13-yard touchdown pass to Colby Harper.
Browning threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Mitchell Bailey and the Warhawks got a safety after Troy punter Will Goggans recovered a high snap in his own end zone.
Maye caught seven passes for a career-best 161 yards for the Warhawks. Centarius Donald ran for 112 yards and a 16-yard touchdown.
The Warhawks intercepted Troy (2-4, 1-2) quarterback Corey Robinson twice and held Troy's offense to just 126 yards.
It was the second straight time the Warhawks had beaten Troy.
ULM (1-4) at Troy (2-3) Oct. 15, 7:00, ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … Troy needs to get back on track after a tough road loss to Louisiana-Lafayette that means leaves no margin for error the rest of the way. With road dates at FIU and Navy coming up, the Trojans might need this game simply to fight for survival in the hunt for a bowl game, and with the way the defense is struggling and with an offense that’s been way too inconsistent, they need a game where everything works.
ULM played well in a tough loss to a good Arkansas State team last week, but now it’s 1-4 with this the start of a stretch of three road games in the next four. With the Ragin’ Cajuns still to deal with on the road, there’s a lot of work to do to try and salvage a good season out of a rough start. The defense has been decent so far, but the offense hasn’t found anything that works on a regular basis and the points have been impossible to come by. Against Troy, the Warhawks have to be ready for the shootout.
Why ULM Might Win: Troy’s secondary can’t stop the mediocre passing games and it isn’t even close against the good ones. ULM doesn’t have much of a passing attack, but it has just enough to potentially push the ball down the field against a secondary that gave up 265 yards to ULL and got bombed on by Middle Tennessee for 415 yards and five touchdowns. ULM QB Kolton Browning is just good enough to spread the ball around for a 200+ yard day – he threw for 226 yards in last year’s loss – and if he can keep the chains moving against a Trojan D that can’t get off the field, ULM has a shot. Outside of the problems last week against ASU with four turnovers, the Warhawks aren’t making a slew of mistakes and they’re generating enough of a pass rush to bother the Troy passing game.
Why Troy Might Win: ULM doesn’t have the offense to keep up any sort of pace. The only chance the Warhawks have is to keep the scoring low, but the Trojans have too good a passing game not to put up at least 24 points. The offensive line is doing a good enough job of keeping Corey Robinson upright, and if ULM isn’t getting to him, he’ll put up a huge passing day. No, Troy isn’t getting much out of its defense, but against an offense that has problems putting up more than two touchdowns a game, this might be a week off.
What To Watch Out For: The Troy offense should be putting up bigger numbers with the way Robinson is playing. The sophomore has thrown for 322 yards or more in each of the last four games and he’s not bad at taking off from time to time, and if he can hit the 300-yard mark again, ULM won’t be able to keep up. Last year he was held to just 167 yards with two picks in is worst game of the season. That won’t happen again.
ULM sophomore Brent Leonard is starting to become a major playmaker. He caught 13 passes for 92 yards and a score against TCU, and last week he dominated Arkansas State with ten catches for 145 yards and two scores in the near-miss. The 6-1, 179-pounder was almost moved over to corner earlier in his career, but he proved to be too valuable on the offensive side to move him around. Now he’s the team’s No. 1 target.
What Will Happen: Can ULM give Troy a battle? The Trojans are a little desperate and have to open things up, but the defense is so bad that it keeps everyone’s offense in the game. Robinson will hit the 300-yard mark yet again and ULM won’t have enough answers late.
CFN Prediction: Troy 31 … ULM 17
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Troy -9 O/U: 56
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