2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 7 - Toledo at BGSU
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Oct. 15 Toledo 28 … at Bowling Green 21
CFN Analysis: It took a while to get the offense going, but Morgan Williams and the running game kept working and kept pounding, and then it broke through. Williams ran for 136 yards and three touchdowns but the passing game didn’t provide a ton of help against a mediocre defense. Eric Page was kept under wraps, and while Bernard Reedy caught six passes for 108 yards, most of the yards came on one big play. It wasn’t the best of all-around efforts, but after two straight blowout wins, this was a bit of a letdown. Even so, it was still a win. With three straight home games, including dates with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, it’s time to get the offense rolling. Getting more from the passing game again is a must.
The Falcons are more competitive, but they’re still not throwing as well as they should and the lack of a steady running game was a problem late against Toledo. Matt Schilz threw 42 times, but he was off a bit hitting on just half of his passes. Anthon Samuel ran for 105 yards, but when the offense needed to start grinding out the clock, it had a hard time doing it. Dwayne Woods had a strong game making 11 tackles with a tackles for loss, but he and the defensive front couldn’t stop Morgan Williams and the Rockets when they had to. With Temple up next, the line has to be a rock against Bernard Pierce and the run.
(AP) BOWLING GREEN, Ohio -- Morgan Williams rushed for three touchdowns to help Toledo pull away in the second half in a 28-21 win over Bowling Green on Saturday.
Williams, who rushed for 136 yards, scored twice in the fourth quarter to break a 14-14 tie. His 13-yard score gave the Rockets (4-2, 2-1 Mid-American Conference) a 21-14 lead with 10:43 to play. Then, Williams scored on a 24-yard run to push the lead to 28-14 with 1:34 left.
BooBoo Gates returned the ensuing kickoff 88 yards for a touchdown for the Falcons (3-4, 1-2), who lost their third straight game.
It was Toledo's first win at Bowling Green since 2005.
The Rockets limited the Falcons' Matt Schilz, who entered the game with a MAC-leading 16 touchdown passes, to one touchdown. Schilz passed for 220 yards, including a 27-yard scoring pass to Kamar Jorden that put the Falcons ahead 7-0 with 1 second remaining before halftime.
Toledo (3-3) at Bowling Green (3-3) Saturday , Noon ET
Here’s The Deal … The Toledo Rockets head down I-75 to meet the Bowling Green Falcons in the “Battle for the Peace Pipe”. UT won last season’s contest in Toledo 33-14.
The Rockets evened their record at 3-3 last week. After facing an extremely difficult non-conference schedule that included Boise State, Toledo won both if its conference games in convincing fashion by outscoring their opponents 90-29. Last week, the Rockets had their best defensive performance of the season in a 54-16 win, holding Eastern Michigan to a paltry 227 yards of offense.
Bowling Green also enters the game with a 3-3 record. The Falcons raced out to a 3-1 start, but they have lost their last two games against West Virginia and MAC West division co-leader Western Michigan. BG played the Broncos dead even for most of the first half, before Western pulled away 45-21 in the second half.
This rivalry game means a lot to both teams. A victory would earn the coveted Peace Pipe, and bragging rights for the next year. This game will also help determine who plays for the MAC Championship game in December. A Toledo win would allow the Rockets to keep pace with Western Michigan atop the West division standings. Since all of the teams in the East Division have at least one loss, Bowling Green needs to win this game so that they can remain in control of their own destiny.
Why Toledo might win: Even against BCS opponents, the Toledo offense has put the Rockets in position to win every game this season. They will do so again this week. For the season, the Rockets average 426 yards of offense per game, which ranks fourth in the MAC. Last week, Toledo turned in one of its best offensive performances of the season, gaining 542 yards of total offense against Eastern Michigan. In addition, the Rocket QB’s played extremely well, completing an amazing 27 of 31 passes for 302 yards.
The UT offense will enjoy a big afternoon against a suddenly struggling Bowling Green defense. After starting the season strong, the Falcon defense has failed to stop the run in the past two weeks, yielding 360 and 351 yards against West Virginia and Western Michigan. Toledo’s offense prides itself on taking what the defense gives them. If the Falcons cannot stop the run, and have to make adjustments to stop the run, the Rockets take advantage of the mismatches in the secondary.
Why Bowling Green might win: When Bowling Green gets its offense rolling, its very hard to stop – unless the Falcons turn the ball over. In last week’s loss to Western Michigan, the BG offense averaged 4.5 yards per carry, while throwing for 263 yards. While these numbers might not seem significant, this performance is light years ahead of last year’s team.
The Falcons will need this offensive balance against an aggressive Toledo defense. The Rocket defense does not give up that many big plays. However, the teams that have beaten Toledo this season have done so by using a steady mix of runs and passes. The Bowling Green offense will pick up where it left off last week, mixing in the run with the pass, and limiting the number of blitzes that Toledo can run. They should have no trouble moving the ball down the field.
What To Watch Out For: Watch out for Bowling Green sophomore QB Matt Schilz. A natural leader, Schilz is the engine to the BG offensive machine. Schilz had an outstanding freshman season for the Falcons last year, throwing for over 2200 yards, and completing 60% of his passes. This season, he has increased his accuracy, completing 63% of his passes. More importantly for the Falcons, Schilz has taken better care of the football by throwing 16 TD’s against only 7 interceptions. Last week, he had another solid showing, throwing for 194 yards on only 15 completions.
The Falcons will need a similar performance from him this week to beat the Rockets.
Toledo will get the ball to Biletnikoff Award hopeful Eric Page. Page continues to terrorize opposing defenses with his speed and pristine route running. The junior is on pace for a third consecutive 1100 yard season, hauling in 54 passes for 577 yards in the first six games. Page continued his spectacular play last week, torching Eastern Michigan for 109 yards and a touchdown. Considering that Page was able to eclipse 100 yards receiving against both Ohio State and Syracuse, he will have no trouble against a BG secondary that has struggled against elite receivers this year.
What will happen Each team would the relish the opportunity to ruin the other team’s season, so expect a very physical game. Both teams will look for the quick strike early on in the game. After an early barrage of scoring, the defenses will take over from there. Since Toledo has the better offense, they will be better equipped to sustain long drives, which will make the difference in this game. Toledo wins a close contest, and remains tied atop the MAC West standings.
CFN
Prediction: Toledo 31 … Bowling Green 21
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