2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 8 - Miami Univ. at Toledo
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Oct. 22 at Toledo 49 … Miami Univ. 28
CFN Analysis: COMING
(AP) TOLEDO, Ohio -- Morgan Williams ran for two touchdowns to lead a balanced rushing attack in Toledo's 49-28 win over Miami (Ohio) on Saturday night.
The Rockets (5-3, 4-0 Mid-American Conference) rushed for 269 of their 497 yards of offense, with three players going for more than 60 yards.
Williams had 84 yards on 17 carries, Adonis Thomas added 80 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries and David Fluellen 66 yards on 10 carries.
Fluellen's 7-yard touchdown opened the scoring as Toledo tallied the game's first 28 points. The Rockets led 21-0 in the first quarter before Robert Bell returned a fumble 55 yards on Jayrone Elliott's sack of Miami quarterback Zac Dysert.
Dysert finished with 333 yards and two touchdowns on 14 of 37 passing for the RedHawks (2-5, 1-2), who had just 14 yards rushing.
Toledo stretched its winning streak to four straight, while Miami ended a two-game winning streak.
Miami University (2-4) at Toledo (4-3) Saturday, 7PM ET
Here’s The Deal … The Toledo Rockets host longtime rival Miami University this weekend. The teams meet for the first time since 2009, when the Redhawks defeated Toledo 31-24 in Oxford.
After winning the MAC championship last year, Miami University got off to a slow start under first-year head coach Don Treadwell, losing their first four games. However, now that the Redhawks have a firm grasp of the new offensive and defensive schemes, the Redhawks have won two in a row to bring their record to 2-4. Last week, the Redhawks had their best defensive effort of the year, holding Kent State to 244 yards total offense in a 9-3 win.
Toledo played a brutal non-conference schedule, including Ohio State and Boise, which led to a 1-3 start. While facing these tough opponents did not help the Rockets’ win-loss record, it did prepare them for conference play. The Rockets sit atop the West Division standings with a 3-0 record, including a wins over East division leader Temple, and archrival Bowling Green.
This game could determine who plays in the MAC Championship game. Even though Miami has a 2-4 record, they only have one conference loss, and control their own destiny. A win over the Rockets would send a message to the rest of the East division that the Redhawks still have the talent to win the crown again this season.
On the other hand, Toledo knows it needs to win every conference game to earn a visit to Ford Field, after missing last year’s MAC Championship game despite a 7-1 MAC record.
Why Miami might win… The Redhawks will lean on their passing attack to put them in position to win the game. Miami has moved the ball through the air effectively all season against a schedule that included three BCS conference opponents. Last week, the Redhawks only threw for 125 yards, but completed only 13 passes because of the severe wind conditions. Even including last week’s low yardage numbers, Miami’s passing game still averages 250 yards per game, which ranks 38th nationally.
The Redhawk passing game matches up well against a Toledo defense that has been plagued by injuries all season. While the Rockets have not played terribly against the pass this year, they have been prone to give up some big plays in the passing game. Making matters worse, the Rockets will play without top pass rusher TJ Fatinikun, who is out for the season with a dislocated elbow. Even with Fatinikun in the lineup, the Rockets have allowed opposing QB’s have completed 61% of their passes, and average over 10 yards per completion. With an experienced signal caller in Zac Dysert, the Toledo defense could be in for a very long day.
Why Toledo might win… Despite Tim Beckman’s defensive background, Toledo continues to win with its offense. The Rockets average 430 yards total offense per game, which ranks third in the conference. Last week, Toledo’s offense continued to roll against Bowling Green. The Rockets ran 47 times for 268 yards, and averaged 5.7 yards per carry. The passing game followed suit, as the two Rocket QB’s hit 14 of 22 for 188 yards.
The Rockets’ offensive success will carry over into this week. Even though the Redhawk defense ranks 39th in the country in total defense, they still allow 4.1 yards per carry. This plays right into the hands of the Toledo offense, who are 4-0 this season when they average over 4 yards per carry. The Rockets will run the ball until Miami adjusts by putting more people in the box. With Toledo’s excellent depth at the receiver position, playing man coverage is asking for trouble.
What To Watch Out For: Miami’s offensive success depends on the passing game. In order to get the passing game going, the Redhawks will get the ball to star WR Nick Harwell, who ranks sixth in the nation in receiving yards per game. Harwell has emerged as the QB Zac Dysert’s favorite weapon, catching 39 passes for 637 yards. More impressively, Harwell has over 100 yards receiving in four of the five games he has played in, with only Kent State – and a brutal 25 mph wind – able to hold Harwell in check.
On the other side of the ball, Toledo has an All-American candidate of its own in WR Eric Page. Page has led the Rockets in receiving for the past two seasons, eclipsing the 1,100-yard mark in both seasons. He is on pace for third 1,100 yard season this year, as he has 60 catches for 604 yards through the first seven games. As good as a receiver as Page is, he is also a threat as punt returner, and has even thrown a TD pass this season. The Redhawk defense will have to account for him at all times.
What will happen: Miami will come out throwing, and will to take advantage of the Rocket secondary. Toledo will counter with some offensive fireworks of its own, matching the Redhawks score for score. However, the Rockets will make some adjustments in the second half – as they have done all season – and pull away from Miami in the second half. Toledo gets a crucial conference win over its long time rival, and improves to 4-0 in MAC play.
CFN Prediction: Toledo 38 … Miami 17
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Toledo -17.5 O/U: 48.5
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