2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 8 - NIU at Buffalo
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Oct. 22 Northern Illinois 31 … at Buffalo 30
CFN Analysis: COMING
(AP) BUFFALO, N.Y. -- Chandler Harnish gained 217 all-purpose yards in Northern Illinois' 31-30 win over Buffalo on Saturday.
Buffalo (2-6, 1-2 Mid-American Conference) rallied from a 31-10 deficit with 20 points in the fourth quarter, but a missed extra point by Peter Fardon with 14 seconds to play ended the Bulls' comeback.
Harnish, who finished with 150 passing yards on 11 of 26 attempts, also ran for 67 yards on 12 carries and his 6-yard touchdown run gave the Huskies a 17-10 halftime lead. Harnish moved into first place in career completions at Northern Illinois (5-3, 3-1) and within 91 yards out of 10th place on the Huskies' career rushing list.
Jasmin Hopkins led the Northern Illinois rushing attack, carrying 19 times for 55 yards and adding 3 touchdowns. Hopkins scored twice from 1 yard out and once from 12 yards out. His third touchdown made it 31-10.
Northern Illinois (4-3) at Buffalo (2-5) Oct. 22, 12:00, ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … There’s the Northern Illinois everyone was waiting for.
The offense sputtered on the big stage against Wisconsin, scoring just seven points against the mighty Badgers, and the defense fell apart against Kansas and Central Michigan in losses, but just when it seemed like the MAC title hopes were all but gone, then came the Western Michigan game.
With a high octane attack and looking great, WMU appeared ready to be the next big thing in the MAC, but NIU reestablished its dominance with a 51-22 thumping at just the right time. There’s still a ton of work to done, with three straight road games starting this week, and a date at Toledo coming up, but the offense is exploding.
Buffalo has been far better than last year, but it’s sputtering and struggling offensively and has only been able to win when it scores 35 points or more. The defense has been better than it looked over the last three weeks, giving up points in bunches against Tennessee, Ohio, and Temple, but the team has to try to come up with the big win in an oasis from the road games with Miami and Eastern Michigan up next over the next few weeks.
Why Northern Illinois Might Win: Even when the Buffalo offense is rolling, it still hasn’t been good enough to keep up the pace with a NIU offense that’s blowing up. The Bulls scored 38 against Ohio, helped by a 90-yard touchdown pass, and rolled for 35 yards against Stony Brook. That’s been it. The Bulls have scored just 13 points in three of the last four games with a passing game that’s not doing much of anything, outside of the home run hit against the Bobcats, and points have been hard to come by. The pass defense has been solid, but the run defense isn’t slowing anyone down lately. NIU is rolling with the nation’s ninth-best rushing attack and an offense that hit the 40-point mark in every game except the loss to the Badgers.
Why Buffalo Might Win: How did Central Michigan and its struggling offense end up beating NIU a few weeks ago? Ryan Radcliffe got hot and the offense didn’t give the ball away, winning the turnover margin +2. UB hasn’t been too bad at holding on to the ball and shouldn’t lose the turnover margin. Does the passing game have the juice to do what CMU did? No, but the offensive line should be just good enough to let the ground attack pound out yards and drives to keep the Huskie offense on the sidelines. NIU’s run defense has been way too soft, and the secondary hasn’t been a brick wall. The Huskies will come up with big offensive numbers, but finally, UB might be able crank out some yards, too.
What To Watch Out For: Chandler Harnish has taken his game to another level and is pushing hard for the MAC Player of the Year honor. He’s throwing well, hitting the 370-yard mark in the loss to CMU, and he’s running better taking off for 229 yards in the win over Western Michigan. Last year he ran for 75 yards and threw for 160 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in the easy win over the Bulls, but he’s too hot to not improve his stats this year and not come up with another big performance.
UB senior Chazz Anderson bombed away for 343 yards and two scores against Ohio. He has to be at least that good this week to keep up the pace with the Huskie offense, but the Bobcat game was an aberration. He was awful against Temple, completing 9-of-26 passes for 84 yards with a pick, and he didn’t do anything against Tennessee completing 8-of-19 passes for 99 yards. If he doesn’t throw for 250 yards, and if he’s not great on third downs, UB doesn’t have a chance.
What Will Happen: NIU’s defense will give up yards in bunches, and Buffalo’s offense will be as balanced and as effective as it’s been all year, but it won’t be enough. The Huskies are too good and too explosive to not get up quickly for the Bulls to keep up.
CFN Prediction: Northern Illinois 41 … Buffalo 23
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