2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 8 - NMSU at Hawaii
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Oct. 22 at Hawaii 45 … New Mexico State 34
CFN Analysis: COMING
(AP) HONOLULU -- Bryant Moniz threw for two touchdowns and ran for another two to lead Hawaii to a 45-34 win over New Mexico State on Saturday night.
The Warriors (4-3, 2-1 WAC) racked up 503 yards of offense and never trailed against the Aggies (3-4, 2-1).
Moniz completed 24 of 39 attempts for 264 yards and added 62 yards on 11 carries. Joey Iosefa, who scored two touchdowns in the second half, rushed 13 times for 90 yards.
Aaron Brown finished with a game-high 11 1/2 tackles, including one sack, for the Warriors, who had nine players record at least one catch each.
Matt Christian threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns -- both to Taveon Rogers -- and Kenny Turner added 119 rushing yards and a score for New Mexico State.
Hawaii led at the half 27-14.
New Mexico State (3-3) at Hawaii (3-3) Oct. 23, 12:00 AM, ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … For the first time, maybe ever, New Mexico State has a shot to make it interesting against Hawaii. 0-7 lifetime against the Warriors, this year the Aggies actually have an offense that’s starting to work winning two straight games against New Mexico and Idaho after losing at San Jose State. While they’re not major players in the WAC race, they have just enough punch on offense and are doing just enough on defense to potentially make this interesting. DeWayne Walker is slowly turning things around, but after getting blown out year after year against the Warriors, this will be a decent measuring stick to see where the program is at.
Hawaii has had a strange year, struggling on the road in clunkers against UNLV and San Jose state, but dominating at home in the two wins over Colorado and UC Davis. The home stretch doesn’t come until late in the season, and the travel-weary Warriors are back from San Jose, play this week at home, and then have to go back across the water to Idaho. The offense has been breathtaking at times, frustrating at others, and doing just enough good things to with the WAC even after the loss to San Jose State. While this might be a test to see where NMSU is at as a program, if Hawaii doesn’t win in a blowout, it might be time to panic that things are starting to slip before going to the Mountain West in the near future.
Why New Mexico State Might Win: The secondary is growing into a major positive. The line might not be doing much to get behind the line, and the pass rush has been spotty, but the secondary leads the WAC in pass efficiency defense and is giving up just 207 yards per game. It’s not like it’s faced a slew of high-octane passing attacks, but still, the Aggies are improving just enough to potentially give the Hawaii air show a few problems. Offensively, NMSU has found something with its own passing game, cranking out 200 yards or more in every game with 13 touchdown passes and just four picks. It’s possible the Aggies are just good enough to keep up the pace with the Warriors in a shootout.
Why Hawaii Might Win: Pass rush. Hawaii has one, New Mexico State doesn’t. The Aggies don’t try to do anything too funky and they don’t sell out to get into the backfield, and while the pass rush really hasn’t been that bad, cranking out ten sacks, they’re second-to-last in the nation in tackles for loss, coming up with just nine so far. The Hawaii offensive line will give up sacks, but there shouldn’t be too much of a problem keeping Bryant Moniz upright. On the flip side, the Warrior pass rush continues to be among the best in the nation, coming up with 22 sacks and with steady pressure coming behind the line. The New Mexico State offense isn’t so strong that it can handle being thrown off by a steady stream of Hawaii defenders. Offensively, yes, New Mexico State is better, but if this gets into any sort of a firefight, Hawaii is far better equipped.
What To Watch Out For: All of a sudden, Bryant Moniz came up with a bad game at the worst time. With 15 touchdown passes and just one pick over the first five games, he was nearly flawless, even in the awful loss to UNLV, and he threw for 303 yards and two scores against San Jose State. However, he gave away three picks at San Jose State. He’s been good against the Aggies over the last two years, but not amazing throwing for 294 yards with no touchdowns and a pick in the win two years ago, and throwing for 315 yards and four scores with a pick in last year’s blowout. After hitting the 400 yard mark in the two games before the loss to San Jose State, he’s due for a huge performance at home.
NMSU quarterback Matt Christian is fighting through a bad shoulder that got banged up in the win over Idaho, limiting him to just 102 yards and a score, but he’s ready to go. he threw for 296 yards and four scores in the win over New Mexico, while running for 101 yards, and he was great in the loss to San Jose State. He’s just enough of a veteran and just savvy enough to make the right throws and the right reads to put up huge numbers against a mediocre Warrior secondary.
What Will Happen: New Mexico will put up big numbers and will keep the foot on the gas to make Hawaii try, and then Moniz will take over. It’ll be a game of runs, and Moniz and the Warrior attack will blast away for three straight touchdowns to make a close game a blowout, but it’ll be a fun fight with the two teams combining for 700 passing yards.
CFN Prediction: Hawaii 45 … New Mexico State 27
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Hawaii -21.5 O/U: 57.5
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