2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 9 - Troy at FIU
Sun Belt Fearless Predictions &
- FREE EXPERT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
- Get Tickets For This Game
Follow Us @CFBNews
Facebook | E-mail Us
Oct. 25 at FIU 23 … Troy 20 OT
CFN Analysis: FIU kept screwing up to keep Troy in the game, hurt mostly by a 14-point spurt late in the third quarter, but the defense put the clamps down allowing just 299 yards and shutting down the horrendous Trojan ground game. Wesley Carroll was good, throwing for 285 yards and two scores, but Kedrick Rhodes was better carrying the mail 30 times for 172 yards. However, the four turnovers were a problem and if almost cost the Golden Panthers a dominant performance. The Sun Belt title is still out of reach at the moment, but if the team plays like this, without the turnovers, FIU will win out.
Absolutely disastrous, the offense continues to sputter after weeks of not getting much going, and while the running game won’t ever work, the passing game is the shocking problem as Corey Robinson isn’t getting help from anyone down the field. The defense came up with some huge hits and four takeaways, but that was about all the team could do as FIU did whatever it wanted moving the ball. At 2-5 overall and 1-3 in the Sun Belt, the season is all but over unless the Trojans can go on a run. The defense isn’t showing anything to prove it can slow down Navy next week, but beating North Texas and Florida Atlantic at home is possible to get back on track in the finishing kick if, and it’s a big if, the offense finds its pop again to make up for the miserable defense.
(AP) MIAMI -- Jack Griffin kicked a 22-yard field goal in the first overtime and as Florida International beat Troy 23-20 on Tuesday night.
Kedrick Rhodes rushed 30 times for 172 yards and Wesley Carroll was 20 of 37 for 286 yards and two touchdowns to lead FIU.
FIU (5-3, 2-2 Sun Belt) won only its second game ever against Troy (2-5, 1-3). Four turnovers hurt the Panthers' chances of taking control of the game after holding a 10-point lead late in the third quarter.
Tony Davis returned a fumble 30 yards for a touchdown that capped the Trojans' 13-0 run that gave them a 20-17 lead with 52 seconds left in the third quarter.
Griffin's 20-yard field goal with 3:31 left tied the game at 20.
FIU outgained Troy 522-299 in total yards and controlled time of possession, 36:39-23:21. However, the Panthers turned the ball over three times and trailed until two third-quarter touchdowns by Carroll gave them the lead.
Carroll connected with Wayne Times on a 76-yard touchdown pass play that gave the Panthers a 10-7 lead with 10:42 remaining. On a third-and-21, he hit a wide-open Jacob Younger for a 43-yard touchdown pass that gave the Panthers a 17-7 lead with 6:31 left in the third quarter.
Shawn Southward's 3-yard touchdown cut FIU's lead to 17-13. He finished with 52 yards rushing on eight carries.
Troy (2-4) at Florida International (4-3) Oct. 25, 8:00, ESPN2/ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … This was supposed to be the definitive Sun Belt showdown between the two 2010 co-champions, but instead it’s about survival and turning a season around for one of the league’s two most disappointing teams.
Arkansas State is looking like the Sun Belt’s strongest team, and Louisiana-Lafayette is 4-1, but the winner of this game will still be in the mix for the title, while the loser will be all but dead in the bowl hunt.
Florida International started out the season red-hot with wins over Louisville and UCF before a stunning home loss to the Ragin’ Cajuns, and while last week’s nationally televised loss to Arkansas State ruined any hope of winning the Sun Belt outright, winning the final five games could bring a co-championship. The defense lost its mojo after a great start, struggling too much against the pass, while the offense hasn’t picked up the slack. After breaking through last year in a 52-35 win over Troy, it’s trying to make a run despite being 1-5 all-time in the series.
Troy’s defense has been a total nightmare, ranking last in the Sun Belt in most of the major categories. On a two-game losing streak, including a stunning 38-10 home gaffe to ULM and a loss to Louisiana-Lafayette, this hasn’t been the typical Trojan powerhouse of the past. There’s still time to come up with a solid year, but with road trips to Navy, a hot Western Kentucky, and Arkansas State to deal with, a win on Tuesday night is a must.
Why Troy Might Win: The FIU defense has inexplicably struggled over the last few weeks. It didn’t get any pass rush against Duke, and was picked apart for 335 yards and two scores, and if didn’t do enough up front against Arkansas State and got rumbled over for 238 yards and three scores. After ripping off six sacks against both Louisville and UCF, the pass rush has been shockingly absent for long stretches against mediocre offensive lines, and while Troy’s front five isn’t the brick wall of past seasons, it’s still decent in pass protection. The FIU secondary can be toasted deep, and even though Troy’s passing game isn’t efficient, it’s effective enough to lead the league averaging close to 300 yards per pop. Corey Robinson should be able to throw for 300 yards, but …
Why Florida International Might Win: The supposedly great Troy offense has gone dead. Robinson is a bomber with a ton of talent and plenty of weapons around him, but the Trojan attack only managed 140 passing yards last week, after rolling for over 325 yards or more through the air for four straight weeks, and the running game went bye-bye against ULM, finishing with -14 net yards after the O line had its worst game of the season. The bigger problem is on the other side with the defense not slowing anyone down. The secondary is giving yards in chunks and on consistent basis, and the offense isn’t picking up the slack. The FIU passing attack threw for 392 yards and three scores against Duke and 308 yards against Akron thanks to the emergence of ...
What To Watch Out For: Wesley Carroll has had a long and interesting career. After starting out at Mississippi State he has been a strong, steadying playmaker for the FIU attack, and when he’s been on, like he was against Duke and Akron, the offense hums. After giving away 14 last year, he has only thrown two interceptions on the season, and they’ve come in each of the last two games. Last year he was terrific against Troy completing an efficient 8-of-15 passes for 220 yards and three scores, with a pick, in the big win.
Corey Robinson needs help from the running game that was non-existent last week. No one got more than five carries, and it’s time to get Shawn Southward going. The junior only has 239 yards and two scores on the year, and he’s the team’s leading rusher. Last year he ran for 32 yards and two scores in the loss to FIU, but he only has two touchdown runs this entire year. Robinson can’t do it all, and now defenses are starting to tee off on him.
What Will Happen: FIU will right the ship. After losing three of the last four games, the offense will be balanced and effective and the defensive front will regain its early season form. Robinson will get hit early and often, taking at least three sacks, but he’ll throw for close to 300 yards to make it interesting.
CFN Prediction: FIU 27 … Troy 20
- Click For Latest Line From ATS:
FIU -6.5 O/U: 55
- Get Tickets For This Game
- FREE EXPERT COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS