2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 9 - SMU at Tulsa
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Oct. 29 at Tulsa 38 … SMU 7
CFN Analysis: COMING
(AP) TULSA, Okla. -- Willie Carter set career highs with 13 receptions for 173 yards, including a 40-yard touchdown, as Tulsa drilled Southern Methodist 38-7 Saturday.
Tulsa (5-3, 4-0 Conference USA) limited SMU to 265 yards.
Alex Singleton rushed for three short-yardage touchdowns and Milton Howell had three first-half interceptions as the Hurricane moved to 4-0 in Conference USA play to keep pace with unbeaten and nationally ranked Houston.
Carter exceeded his career highs he set the previous week when he caught nine balls for 160 yards against Rice.
SMU (5-3, 3-2) sputtered offensively. Zach Line, the conference's leading rusher, ran for 118 yards on 22 carries, including a 17-yard run for SMU's only score. Quarterback J.J. McDermott completed 17 of 37 passes for 180 yards with four interceptions.
G. J. Kinne completed 24 of 36 passes for 274 yards and ran for 39 yards including a 2-yard touchdown.
SMU (5-2) at Tulsa (4-3) Oct. 29, 3:30, FSN
Here’s The Deal … There are three remaining showdowns that’ll decide the tightly-packed West Division of Conference USA. This is the first of that trio. SMU will arrive at Chapman Stadium a game behind Tulsa and Houston courtesy of last week’s 27-3 loss in Hattiesburg to Southern Miss. The Mustangs were held to their lowest point total in five years, a rude awakening for a program that had begun Week 8 as one of the league’s hottest teams. His margin for error shaved razor thin, it’s now up to head coach June Jones to reignite his kids before it’s too late.
The Golden Hurricane has sort of been the third wheel of the West so far in 2011. It hasn’t received nearly as much pub as SMU or Houston, yet has quietly won three straight games since being humbled by one of the country’s toughest September slates. With a chance to emerge from the weeds for the first time this fall, hosting the Mustangs will present Tulsa with an opportunity for increased exposure.
Why SMU Might Win: The Run-and-Shoot was thwarted last weekend, but do not expect it to become a trend. Jones won’t permit it. Despite conventional wisdom, the Mustangs are more than just a pass-happy attack. Sure, they’ll move the ball through the air with QB J.J. McDermott and his fleet-footed receivers, Darius Johnson and Cole Beasley. However, they’ll also soften the interior of opposing defenses with bruising 235-pound RB Zach Line, who has rushed for a league-leading 828 yards and 13 touchdowns. Against balanced offenses, Tulsa has had problems this fall, especially when the ball is being put in the air. SMU presents a diverse set of challenges that the Golden Hurricane hasn’t had to deal with during its current three-game winning streak.
Why Tulsa Might Win: The Hurricane boasts the better quarterback, a key edge in a high-stakes game. Senior G.J. Kinne has shaken off a rough outing against Boise State to throw for three touchdown passes and more than 300 yards in each of the last three games. Plus, he’s always a threat to take off and run, an especially big concern now that LB Taylor Reed, SMU’s top tackler, has been suspended for the game. Kinne has an eclectic array of weapons with which to frustrate the Mustangs, such as backs Ja’Terian Douglas and Trey Watts, TE Clay Sears, WR Bryan Burnham and H-back Willie Carter. Carter has really evolved in the last four games, catching 27 passes for 368 yards and four touchdowns.
What To Watch Out For: Okay, so both offenses can score, but which defense shows up on Saturday. The Mustangs and the Golden Hurricane have been scrappy this season against similar competition. SMU hopes to create pressure from various angles, getting heat from LB Ja’Gared Davis and ends Taylor Thompson and Marquis Frazier. Tulsa, on the other hand, is excelling at creating turnovers, using its aggressive defenders on the back seven to change the momentum of games. Linebackers Curnelius Arnick and Shawn Jackson, and safeties Dexter McCoil and Marco Nelson all possess the range to string out the Mustangs from sideline-to-sideline.
What Will Happen: SMU is not as feeble as it looked last week in Hattiesburg, but it might not be as good as it played against TCU on Oct. 1 either. Tulsa, though, has been building with a slow burn, steadily improving on both sides of the ball. Kinne gives the Golden Hurricane a decided advantage behind center, particularly at home, and without Reed on the other side of the line. He’ll account for a couple of touchdowns, while protecting the ball at the same time. McDermott won’t be as fortunate in the face of a Tulsa D that has a knack for forcing opposing quarterbacks into pivotal mistakes.
CFN Prediction: Tulsa 30 … SMU 24
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