2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 10 - Kansas State at OSU
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Nov. 5 at Oklahoma State 52 … Kansas State 45
CFN Analysis: The dream season remains alive, but the Cowboys were exposed on defense again by a team that could pound away with the running game. Missouri managed to crank out 248 yards, Texas ran for 231 yards, and Texas A&M ran for an efficient 162 yards. Collin Klein was unstoppable, but so was Brandon Weeden, who overcame a few huge mistakes to throw for 502 yards and four touchdowns as he came back time and time and time again to answer all of Kansas State’s haymakers. Oklahoma State is simply one of those really good teams that overcomes its problems by bludgeoning opponents with offensive firepower, but to beat Oklahoma and then LSU – and that’s what it’s about now – the defensive front has to be more creative at holding up on third downs. KSU converted half of its chances and had the ball for almost 41 minutes; the Sooners and Tigers can play ball control, too.
As disappointing as this might have been, it also proved the team, and the first half of the season, are for real. Collin Klein was terrific, but he had plenty of help from an offensive front that held its own against the aggressive Oklahoma State offensive front. Most importantly, the formula worked. Win the turnover margin (4 to 2), own the time of possession battle (40:49 to 19:11), and keep the chains moving. Klein not only ran well, but he also threw for 231 yards and a score with a pick. It also helped to have a special game from Tyler Lockett, who caught a touchdown pass, ran for 84 yards, and did a great job on kickoff returns. This was the team’s signature moment, even in a loss, but it can still do big things with against Texas A&M, Texas, and Iowa State to close things out. It’s going to take more shootouts, though, to come up with more wins. There’s no shame in losing to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but these Cats can do more.
(AP) STILLWATER, Okla. -- Brandon Weeden threw for a school record 502 yards and four touchdowns, and Joseph Randle scored the final, tiebreaking 23-yard touchdown with 2:16 remaining to lift No. 3 Oklahoma State to a 52-45 victory against Kansas State (No. 14 BCS, No. 17 AP) on Saturday night.
The Cowboys (9-0, 6-0 Big 12) matched the best start in school history and survived quite a scare from K-State (7-2, 4-2), which had three shots at the end zone in the final 12 seconds.
Collin Klein missed on 5-yard passes intended for Tyler Lockett and Chris Harper and then overshot Tramaine Thompson in the end zone as time expired. Oklahoma State's players rushed on to the field to celebrate, their national championship hopes still intact.
All-America receiver Justin Blackmon caught 13 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns, atoning for his two-fumble game with a 54-yard touchdown catch with 4:47 remaining that pulled the Cowboys out of a 38-37 deficit.
He also caught the 2-point conversion for a 45-38 lead.
Kansas State responded right back with Lockett's 80-yard kickoff return and three straight runs by Klein, who barged in from 12 yards out to tie it up with 3:18 remaining.
It took Oklahoma State's quick-strike offense just four plays and 62 seconds to respond again. Weeden found Isaiah Anderson for a 33-yard gain, and Randle ran through a big hole on third-and-1 before dodging safety Jordan Zimmerman to waltz in for the game-winner.
Klein drove the Wildcats down for a chance to tie -- or perhaps go for the win with a 2-point conversion -- by converting a fourth-and-4 with a quarterback keeper and then connecting with Harper for 22 yards to set up first-and-goal at the 5-yard line.
With no time to rely on his potent running game, coach Bill Snyder called three straight passing plays but none got the job done.
Klein finished with 231 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception. He also ran for 144 yards and three scores.
Minutes after the game ended, the stadium shook from an apparent aftershock from a 4.7-magnitude earthquake earlier in the day.
The thrilling finish came after a wild back-and-forth game filled with turnovers and plenty of offense -- nothing like what was on display in LSU-Alabama clash in the SEC that ended 9-6 in overtime.
While LSU will likely remain first when the BCS standings come out on Sunday, Oklahoma State will probably be the new No. 2.
With starting receivers Josh Cooper and Hubert Anyiam out, Tracy Moore set career-highs with nine catches for 146 yards for Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State capitalized on Klein's fumble on the Wildcats' second play from scrimmage to strike first with Randle's 4-yard touchdown run, and it was soon 14-0 after Weeden hit Moore for a 44-yard gain to set up the Cowboys' second score.
Blackmon stutter-stepped at the line to get Nigel Malone on his heels, then caught Weeden's pass and stutter-stepped again to get past him for an 11-yard score.
Then the Cowboys' stars made a series of mistakes to let K-State get back in the game.
Blackmon fumbled on a punt return to set up Anthony Cantele's 37-yard field goal, then Weeden gave the ball right back by throwing a pick to Tysyn Hartman on a deep ball. Angelo Pease and Klein had short TD runs on Kansas State's next two possessions before another Weeden interception was returned 60 yards for a score by Allen Chapman.
Kansas State led 24-14 -- the biggest home deficit this season for the Cowboys -- then started piling up errors of its own.
James Thomas intercepted a pass that Klein threw into coverage and Brodrick Brown tipped. His 47-yard return set up Weeden's 5-yard TD pass to Moore on the next play. Then, instead of pinning Oklahoma State deep, Ryan Doerr's punt went out of bounds after only 19 yards and gave OSU good field position to drive for Quinn Sharp's 29-yard field goal and a 27-24 halftime lead.
The Cowboys were 1 yard away from claiming a 41-31 lead late in the third quarter when Blackmon fumbled for the second time in the game and Lyndell Johnson recovered in the end zone for Kansas State.
Kansas State (7-1) at Oklahoma State (8-0) Nov. 5, 8:00, ABC/ESPN2/ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … Early in the second quarter against Oklahoma last week, Kansas State led 17-14 and appeared to be proving to all the world that it’s the real deal and worthy of any and all hype from a hot start. And then it was as if the team woke up and realized it’s Kansas State, and it was playing an Oklahoma team good enough to play for the national title.
The Sooners went ballistic scoring 44 unanswered points as Landry Jones threw for 505 yards and five scores and the receiving corps put on a highlight show for the ages.
And that might have been the appetizer.
Oklahoma’s offense is tremendous, and Oklahoma State’s comes in second in the nation in scoring, fourth in total offense, and fourth in passing. While the Sooners were busy tap-dancing on the Kansas State defense, OSU was demolishing Baylor, getting up 49-3 after three quarters before giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter. The attack has cranked out 600 yards or more three times this season and has only gone under 500 twice, with the low mark a 420-yard day against Texas. Kansas State averages 340 yards per game.
The Cowboys are currently ranked No. 3 in the BCS standings, and no matter what happens in the LSU-Alabama showdown, a win over the Wildcats would put them No. 2 in the BCS rankings and in complete control of their destiny. It doesn’t matter what Stanford or Boise State do; it Oklahoma State wins out against Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma, it’ll get its shot at the title.
For Kansas State this game becomes about redemption. After being embarrassed last week when the spotlight was on, and with tough dates against Texas A&M and Texas up next, coming up with a strong showing after would be a plus.
Why Kansas State Might Win: Don’t stray from the formula. Kansas State got to 7-0 by doing all the little things right, like winning the turnover battle, owning time of possession, keeping the penalties to a minimum, and coming up with good drive after good drive with the running game. Oklahoma State’s defense is fine, but it’s not nearly in the same class as Oklahoma’s when it comes to stopping the run, getting gouged by Missouri and Texas and giving up home runs in the wild win over Tulsa.
Oklahoma State is mediocre when it comes to getting off the field, allowing teams to convert 42% of their third down chances. More importantly for KSU, OSU is 112th in the nation in time of possession, hanging on to the ball for an average of just 27:15 per game. Kansas State is fourth in the nation, keeping the ball for 34:25 per game. The Cowboys strike quickly, but so does Texas Tech, and the Wildcats were able to withstand a 461-yard passing day from Seth Doege by keeping the ball for 33:33 and converting every meaningful third down chance.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: But Seth Doege threw for 461 yards. Oklahoma’s Landry Jones threw for 505, and Robert Griffin rolled for 346 yards and five touchdowns. OSU QB Brandon Weeden won’t be pressured by the mediocre Kansas State pass rush and should throw at will on a secondary that has speed and a little bit of talent, but gets torched way too easily on midrange-to-deep plays. KSU doesn’t have the ability to keep down all the OSU options.
Again, Kansas State has to be nearly perfect to win; there’s almost no margin for error. The problem is that Oklahoma State is better when it comes to turnover margin, ranking No. 1 in the nation thanks to a defense that’s come up with a whopping 29 takeways so far. With a terrific pass rush and a great push into the backfield, the defense makes up for all the yards allowed by coming up with a slew of big plays to screw things up. Kansas State’s offense bogged down once Oklahoma started to get behind the line, and OSU should be able to have defensive success.
What To Watch Out For: The Kansas State offense isn’t explosive and it needs good field position to match Oklahoma State point for point, or at least try to. It’s not like the Cowboys punt all that often, but Quinn Sharp should play a big role. Third in the nation in punting, he averaged 49.5 yards on two punts last week against Baylor, and he’s been bombing away for close to 48 yards per boot. But when the OSU offense scores, and it’ll score on a regular basis, Kansas State has to unleash its top weapon, freshman Tyler Lockett, who leads the nation in kickoff returns after taking over, taking nine for 360 yards – a 40-yard average - and two touchdowns over the last three weeks.
Despite suffering a concussion against Missouri, Oklahoma State star Justin Blackmon came back roaring with 13 catches for 172 yards and a score last week in his best game of the season. Hubert Anyiam is done for the year, and Josh Cooper is pushing through a hamstring problem, meaning Blackmon will be the main target again. He might not be a sure-thing All-American this year, but he’s getting close. One more big game will put him back in the Biletnikoff spotlight.
What Will Happen: Kansas State will be better. The ground game will work, holding on to the ball for large chunks of time, but Oklahoma State will strike quickly and often. Weeden will throw for 400 yards, making up for a tough day for Joseph Randle and the running game, and the Cowboys will be the official No. 2 team in the nation on Sunday evening.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 44 … Kansas State 27
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Oklahoma State -21 O/U: 68
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