2011 Predictions & Game Story
Week 10 - Texas Tech at Texas
Big 12 Fearless Predictions &
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Nov. 5 at Texas 52 … Texas Tech 20
CFN Analysis: Texas appeared to be ripe for the picking. Texas Tech was coming off a clunker against Iowa State and was well motivated, and RB Malcolm Brown (foot) and WR Jaxon Shipley (knee) were out. The Red Raiders weren't bad moving the ball to start, but a penalty negated an early touchdown and that seemed to be all Texas needed. The Longhorns rolled behind a huge day from Joe Bergeron, who rumbled for 191 yards and scored from nine, five, and 12 yards out behind an offensive line that shoved Tech all over the place. Even though David Ash struggled, completing just four passes, the Longhorn attack rolled for 595 yards and quickly made it a blowout by converting 7-of-9 third down chances and by simply being more physical. Sort of quietly, Texas is now 6-2 with a trip to Missouri up next. It'll take a lot of work and a little luck, but a BCS game is still in play by winning out.
Things were working fine early on, with Seth Doege looking far sharper than he was against Iowa State, but the defense got gashed, the running game went nowhere, and the offense couldn't do enough to keep up. Doege completed 40-of-55 passes for 381 yards and two scores, but the Texas running game ripped off 439 yards and never let the game get close after the first quarter. The defense has now allowed 34 points or more in each of its last seven games, and the run defense is about to challenge Kansas for being the Big 12's worst. With Oklahoma State and Missouri up next, that's not a good thing, and now a bowl game appears to be a dream.
(AP) AUSTIN, Texas -- Freshman Joe Bergeron ran for 191 yards and three touchdowns and Texas (No. 21 BCS) used another punishing rushing performance to rout Texas Tech 52-20 on Saturday.
Texas (6-2, 3-2 Big 12) is bowl-eligible after missing the postseason last year for the first time since 1997.
Texas ran for 439 yards against one of the worst rushing defenses in the country. Bergeron topped 100 yards for the second week in a row and Fozzy Whittaker ran for two second-quarter touchdowns.
The Longhorns completed just two passes in building a 31-6 lead by halftime.
Texas Tech, which broke Oklahoma's 39-game home winning streak two weeks ago, hasn't looked anything like the same team in consecutive blowout losses since the big win.
Seth Doege passed for 381 yards for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders (5-4, 2-4) have been outscored 93-27 the last two games.
Texas played without leading rusher Malcolm Brown, sidelined with a toe injury, and leading receiver Jaxon Shipley who has a knee injury.
It hardly mattered as Texas topped 400 yards rushing for the second week in a row and never punted against a Red Raiders defense that was powerless to stop anything Texas did.
The Longhorns have put up impressive numbers against two of the worst rushing defenses in the country in Kansas and Texas Tech. The Red Raiders came in ranked No. 114 nationally against the run.
Bergeron had 113 yards against Texas Tech by halftime. Texas scored on its first five drives of the first half and ran out the clock on the sixth.
After the teams traded field goals early, Whittaker had scoring runs of 12 and 8 yards out of Texas' "wild" formation and D.J. Monroe dashed to the end zone from 12 yards. Monroe faked Texas Tech safety Jared Flannel so well that Flannel ran into cornerback Derrick Mays, taking both defenders out of the play.
For one drive, Texas Tech looked capable of pulling off another big road win. The Red Raiders took the opening kickoff and marched to the Texas 2, but a touchdown pass was nullified by a personal foul.
After giving up the early field goal, the Texas defense never let Doege get comfortable, sacking him four times and hitting him several others with constant pressure.
The Texas running game continues to protect freshman quarterback David Ash, who is still developing as a passer.
Ash's only three pass attempts in the first half came on play-action deep throws to receiver Mike Davis. They connected twice for 72 yards and even when Ash missed a wide-open Davis early, he followed it up with a 47-yard option run on the next play to set up a touchdown.
Bergeron's first touchdown made it 31-6 at the end of the second quarter and Texas kept pounding the Texas Tech defense in the second half.
The Longhorns opened the third quarter with a 10-play drive that used just one pass in driving to Bergeron's second score, a 5-yard run off left tackle on fourth-and-1. Bergeron's third touchdown covered 12 yards early in the fourth quarter to make it 45-13.
Texas has won eight of the last 10 meetings with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders haven't won in Austin since 1997.
Texas Tech (5-3) at Texas (5-2) Nov. 5, 12:00, FX
Here's The Deal … Considering the Big 12 is the best conference in the country this season, being the third best team in the league wouldn't be such a bad thing. Texas got its two nasty games against Oklahoma out of the way, and now it's time to show that the young team is growing up and that things are turning back around.
With a dominant 43-0 win over Kansas, the Longhorns looked for a brief moment like all was right with the world. The passing game was humming, the defense was destructive, and a vastly inferior opponent was getting destroyed as expected. But so far, the best win of the year came against BYU in an underwhelming 17-16 performance, and a win over a mediocre UCLA is probably No. 2. It's time to start padding up the résumé, but at least the Longhorns blew out Iowa State 37-14.
In the textbook definition of a letdown game, Texas Tech was as bad against Iowa State as it was good against Oklahoma. Just when it seemed like the Red Raiders were going to become something special, and just when it seemed like the stunning win over the Sooners was going to launch the season and the Tommy Tuberville era into another level, the Cyclones blew through Lubbock.
After bombing away on Oklahoma, the Red Raiders threw for just 191 yards with no touchdown passes, getting down early and staying there in a 41-7 disaster. The running game failed, the passing attack couldn't move the chains, and it was as if the defense was trying to put on a clinic on how not to tackle.
However it looks after the win over the Sooners, Tech has lost three of its last four and has Oklahoma State up next before going on the road to face Missouri and Baylor. Yes, there really is a chance that the Red Raiders could miss out on a bowl if they lose this week, while a win would mean bowl eligibility for Texas. After last year, that's nothing to take for granted.
Why Texas Tech Might Win: Texas is ninth in the nation in pass efficiency defense and it's allowing just 192 yards per game. There's a reason; the defense hasn't faced anyone outside of the state of Oklahoma that can throw.
Landry Jones and the Sooner had no problems putting up 367 yards and three touchdowns, and while Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden was held to just 218 yards and a touchdown, he was busy handing off to a running game that cranked out 202 yards and three scores; the most allowed all year by the Longhorn D. The Iowa State game last week was a complete aberration, and Texas Tech's passing game will go back to being its dominant, high-powered self. The Longhorns don't generate much of a pass rush, and it they're not getting to Seth Doege on a consistent basis, the secondary will get picked apart.
On the other side of the ball, the Texas offensive line is doing a strong job of paving the way for the ground attack, but it's not doing enough to keep the quarterbacks clean. Texas Tech's pass rush doesn't do much, and it doesn't hit the quarterback, but it should be able to finally start generating a little bit of pressure if it can sell out a bit.
Why Texas Might Win: Besides just being dead-calm flat, how did Texas Tech get blown away by Iowa State? Three turnovers were a problem, and the problems on third down didn't help, but the Red Raiders lost because they were steamrolled over. The Cyclones dominated on the offensive line, paving the way for 368 yards and four scores with two backs going over the 100-yard mark and quarterback Jared Barnett rumbling for 92 yards.
The Texas running game is kicking in at just the right time, with Malcolm Brown following up a 135-yard day against Oklahoma State with 119 yards against Kansas. Against the Jayhawks, the Longhorn line was fantastic, paving the way for 441 yards and five touchdowns, and against the mediocre Texas Tech defensive front, it shouldn't be hard to control the game. Against KU, Texas had the ball for over 44 minutes, while Iowa State hung on to the ball – while keeping Doege on the sidelines – for over 40 minutes last week. Texas Tech might be known for its exciting offense, but part of the goal is to keep control of the game with the short to midrange passes. If Texas gets up early, Doege will have to press like he did last week.
The Tech offense has been having a turnover problem lately. There weren't any against Oklahoma, but the three last week made it six in the last three games for an offense that gave it up just three times in the first five. Giveaways have been a problem for the Longhorns, too, but it they can be even in turnover margin, their mistakes won't be that big a deal.
What To Watch Out For: Finally, Texas defensive end Alex Okafor is starting to produce. The 6-4, 260-pounder started eight games inside last year before moving to the outside this offseason. It took a little while to get going, not getting his first sack until the fourth game of the year, but now he has three sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss in his last four games, with two forced fumbles against Kansas. He's not a speed rusher, but he's strong, quick, and active. He doesn't have to sack Doege, but he has to get close to him and apply steady pressure.
While Okafor is breaking out, Texas Tech's Eric Ward is cooling off. The sophomore receiver was the main man in the attack to start the season, and he's still the team's leading receiver with 49 catches for 492 yards and eight scores, but he hasn't gotten in the end zone over the last three games. It's not like he's being shut out, catching 19 passes for 203 yards over the three weeks, but after the offense came up with just one touchdown last week, he needs to find his offensive punch again.
What Will Happen: The Red Raiders will quickly get back on track. Doege won't have the same problems two weeks in a row, and while Texas will come up with a balanced day from its attack and at least 150 yards from Brown, it won't be enough to keep up the pace. It'll be a back-and-forth battle with Doege spreading the ball around well including a late scoring pass in the final minutes. Texas won't be able to answer.
CFN Prediction: Texas Tech 37 … Texas 34
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Texas -11.5 O/U: 60.5
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