2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 10, Missouri at Baylor
Big 12 Fearless Predictions &
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Nov. 5 at Baylor 42 … Missouri 39
CFN Analysis: The defense might have died down the stretch, hanging on for dear life, but the Missouri comeback didn’t overshadow the 697 yards of BU total offense with Robert Griffin showing once again why he deserves to be in the discussion among the nation’s top quarterbacks. With 406 yards and three touchdowns through the air, and 64 yards and a score on the ground, he did it all to put up points in bunches to get up early and make Missouri have to rally. Terrance Ganaway added 186 yards and two scores on the ground to help balance things out, but this was Griffin’s show throughout. Mike Hicks made 13 tackles and Elliot Coffey made 11, but the defense was the Baylor defense; it continues to be a problem and it almost proved costly late. The TCU win was good, but this was better, and now if the Bears can make the layup at Kansas, they’ll go bowling for the second year in a row.
Just when it seemed like Missouri had things on the right track with the win at Texas A&M, if came out flat, came up with an awful game out of the linebackers early on, and now it’ll take two wins in the final three against Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas to go bowling. James Franklin was fantastic in the fourth quarter in the comeback attempt, and Henry Josey ran for 132 yards and two scores on 15 carries, but the missed tackles and the lack of pressure on Griffin was too much to overcome. There’s too much talent on the line to be this soft against anyone’s running game, while the secondary was picked clean when Griffin had time to work. The program might be off to the SEC, but it needs to go out with a bang. The team is better than 4-5, but it’s almost too late to start showing it.
(AP) WACO, Texas -- Robert Griffin III threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another, and Terrance Ganaway ran for touchdowns of 38 and 80 yards, leading Baylor to a 42-39 victory over Missouri on Saturday night.
Baylor set a school record by gaining 697 yards. Griffin, a dazzling dual-threat quarterback, cracked 400 yards passing for the third straight game; this time was more meaningful as the last two games were lopsided losses.
The Bears (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) improved to 5-0 at home and are one win from being bowl eligible for a second straight season. They haven't been to bowls in consecutive seasons since 1991-92.
A week after overcoming an 11-point, fourth-quarter deficit at nearby Texas A&M, Missouri could only come close to wiping out a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit. The Tigers (4-5, 2-4) scored 25 points in the final period, but were thwarted when Baylor recovered an onside kick with 1:59 left.
Perhaps days from joining the Southeastern Conference, Missouri didn't have the kind of stingy defense it's going to need to compete in that league. The Tigers wasted leads of 7-0 and 14-7, then let a 14-13 halftime advantage turn into a 28-14 deficit. Their fourth-quarter offensive surge was undermined by allowing a 68-yard touchdown pass and Ganaway's 80-yard TD run.
After Ganaway sealed the game by running 18 yards to the Missouri 8 on a third-and-2 in the final minute, Baylor fans chanted "S-E-C! S-E-C!"
Baylor went ahead on its first drive of the second half, with Griffin throwing a 28-yard touchdown pass, then running in for the two-point conversion. Ganaway stretched the lead with his 38-yard touchdown following a fumble by Missouri.
The Tigers got within 35-25 midway through the fourth quarter, but on the Bears' next snap, Ganaway broke loose down the right sideline for his 80-yarder. Missouri followed with another touchdown, but there wasn't enough time left for the Tigers to pull off another late rally in central Texas.
Griffin -- who came in as the second-most accurate quarterback in the nation, and third in total offense -- was 27 of 41. His best pass was a heave that hit Tevin Reese in stride for the 68-yard TD. He also ran 18 times for 64 yards.
Ganaway had 186 yards on just 12 carries.
Missouri's Henry Josey, who came in leading the Big 12 in rushing, ran for 132 yards and two touchdowns. It was his fourth straight game with at least 129 yards. Fellow sophomore James Franklin was 33 of 46 for 325 yards and three touchdowns, and he ran 16 times for 57 yards.
The game got off to a bit of an odd start, with each team's first possession ending with a 9-yard punt. Only Missouri's was into the wind. Kicking was a problem all game for the Bears, as they had a point-after blocked and missed field goals of 27 and 54 yards.
Missouri (4-4) at Baylor (4-3) Nov. 5, 7:00, FSN
Here’s The Deal … Missouri was 7-0 against Baylor in Big 12 play, and then came the shock of all shockers in 2009, gagging away a 40-32 loss. Now it’ll be the last time these two play as conference foes before the Tigers bolt to the SEC. That’ll be a common theme for the rest of the Mizzou season, but while that’s the storyline, there’s plenty at stake for the rest of this year.
The Tigers are just 4-4 and aren’t even on the radar in the rankings, but those four losses came in overtime to Arizona State, at Oklahoma, at Kansas State, and against Oklahoma State – there’s not a dud in the bunch. But after stunning Texas A&M in overtime, the season has taken a dramatic twist, and now the chance is there to go on a nice run over a relatively easy final month of the season with Texas and Texas Tech at home before a layup against Kansas in Kansas City.
For Baylor, it’s time to end the slide immediately. Despite the great start, and even with all the phenomenal offensive numbers, the Bears have lost three of their last four games, getting bombed on by Texas A&M and Oklahoma State on the road over the last two weeks by a combined score of 114 to 52. BU also gets Texas Tech and Texas over the last month, along with the Kansas win, but it also has to deal with Oklahoma. The defense has been a problem all year, but last week against the Cowboys the offense started messing up. This is a good, dangerous team that happens to be going against a killer schedule, but after facing three of its last four games on the road, it gets three of the final five at home along with the neutral site game against Texas Tech.
Why Missouri Might Win: All of a sudden, the Baylor offense has stopped scoring when it matters. Robert Griffin is getting his yards, and the attack cranking out 560 yards per game, but the Oklahoma State game w sober last week going into the fourth quarter, with Baylor down 49-3 after three. Against Texas A&M, the Bears got down 31-14 and couldn’t rally all the way back before giving up 21 unanswered points. Missouri knows what it’s like to go on scoring runs, coming up with spurts in key times, and it has just enough punch, especially with the running game, to be the next team to put up 50 on the Bear defense.
The Baylor pass defense is poor, but the run defense is the bigger problem, giving up big yards in chunks and not doing nearly enough to get into the opposing backfield. Oklahoma State ripped off 327 yards and five scores, helped by a huge day from Joseph Randle, and Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas A&M all rumbled at will. The Missouri offensive line might be not be quite as strong as originally hoped, but it’s starting to become more consistent and it’s starting to open up big holes on a consistent basis. Getting 200 rushing yards won’t be a problem.
Why Baylor Might Win: Bombs away. The Missouri pass defense is like most Big 12 pass defenses, going through a rough season, and it’s not going to slow down any time soon against a Bear attack that’s putting up numbers by the truckload. While scoring early on has been a problem lately, Griffin has been unstoppable, putting up 430 yards and three scores in the loss to Texas A&M and 425 yards against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma, Arizona State, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M all threw without a problem on the Tiger secondary, and Griffin should have no problems pushing the 400-yard mark for a third straight week. However, he has to keep the interceptions down, pressing a bit and giving three away in the last two games. Missouri has eight picks on the year, but it’s not coming up with a slew of game-changers.
Griffin should get time to work behind a line that’s doing a good job of keeping defenses at bay. Baylor is 11th in the nation in fewest tackles for loss allowed, while Missouri is 79th. Griffin has a lot to do with that, and against the Tiger linebackers he should be able to take off from time to time to keep the Mizzou defensive line from firing into the backfield. The Tigers are great at making plays behind the line, but the Baylor offensive front, and Griffin, should neutralize them.
What To Watch Out For: The Bear running game could use even more out of running back Terrance Ganaway, who hasn’t been used enough with the team getting down early. However, he was fed the ball time and again against Oklahoma State and was held to just 88 yards on 22 carries. The three lowest-output games of the year came against Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State – the three losses.
Trying to keep Ganaway in check is sophomore linebacker Andrew Wilson, the team’s top special teamer last year and a tackling machine this year for the linebacking corps. A nice recruit with 6-3, 230-pound size, he’s starting to show what he can do as a light-him-up hitter, making a team-leading 68 tackles on the season with 12 stops against Texas A&M and 13 against Kansas State. Able to get into the backfield from time to time, he’ll be in charge of keeping Griffin from taking off.
What Will Happen: Once again, Griffin will be magnificent and he’ll get his yards, but Missouri will control things with Henry Josey and the ground game. Griffin will be great through the air, and Tiger quarterback James Franklin will run like he did against Texas A&M, leading Mizzou to a thrilling win in a back-and-forth battle.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 38 … Baylor 30
Click For Latest Line From ATS: Baylor -2.5
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