2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 10, Akron at Miami Univ.
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Akron (1-7) at Miami University (3-5) Thursday, 7:30 PM, TV
Here’s The Deal … The Akron Zips head west this week to play in-state rival Miami University. The Redhawks have won eight of the last nine in the series - including last season’s 19-14 victory in the Rubber Bowl.
After finishing 1-11 in Rob Ianello’s first season, the Zips find themselves in the MAC East cellar again this year with a 1-7 record. However, Akron has gotten better on offense every week. Last week, the Zips rallied for 22 second-half points, before missing the game-winning two-point conversion in a 23-22 loss to Central Michigan.
The reigning MAC Champion Miami Redhawks struggled with new Head Coach Don Treadwell’s schemes for the first few games of the season, leading to an 0-4 record. However, Miami has rebounded since then, improving their record to a 3-5, with the only loss coming to West Division co-leader Toledo. Last week, the Redhawks continued their resurgence with a 41-13 over Buffalo.
Both teams need this game. An Akron win would move the Zips out of the MAC cellar, and give them some much-needed confidence heading into winnable games against Kent State and Buffalo. On the hand, Miami still controls in own destiny in the MAC East, and needs to win every game to make a return visit to Ford Field.
Why Akron Might Win: The Akron offense has improved every week this season and finally started operating efficiently over the last three games. The Zips were plagued by incompletions early in the year, which had a negative impact on both the running game and the passing game. However, after making some changes in the fourth game, Akron has completed at least 50% of its passes in three of the last five games. This newfound accuracy paid dividends as the running game opened up, allowing the Zips to run for 4.0 yards per carry. Led by a balanced offense, Akron scored 22 points the second half last week, which was more than they have scored in all but one game this season.
On the other hand, the Miami defense has struggled this season. The Redhawks have allowed 200 yards rushing in three games this season. Making matters worse, opposing QB’s have connected on 61% of their passes against the Miami secondary.
With Akron’s offense clicking, and Miami’s defense struggling, Coach Ianello has to feel good about his chances this week.
Why Miami Might Win: The Miami offense enters this game with plenty of confidence after turning in one of its most complete performances of the season against Buffalo. The Redhawks have had no trouble moving the ball through the air this season, even against BCS conference teams. Miami averages 278 passing yards per game, which ranks 29th in the nation. More impressively, the Redhawk passing game continues to improve each week. Last week, Miami threw for 314 yards against Buffalo, giving the Redhawks back-to-back 300-yard performances for the first time this season.
This trend should continue again this week as Akron has one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Zips rank 96th in passing efficiency defense, 104th in rushing defense, and 106th in scoring defense. While Akron has played better in recent weeks – they held Central Michigan to 383 yards last week – the Zips simply do not have enough talent to stop the Redhawk offense.
What To Watch Out For: Akron will turn to QB Clayton Moore and ask him to win the game for them. Moore’s athleticism causes problems for opposing defenses because he can make plays with his legs and his arm. Last week, Moore turned in his best performance of the season against Central Michigan, completing 25 of 40 passes for 225 yards. Moore also showed the type of leader he is last week by rallying the Zips to 22 points in the second half, which was almost enough to upset Central Michigan. Akron will need another big game from Moore if they are going to beat the Redhawks.
While Nick Harwell is Miami’s leading receiver – and one of the top playmakers in the MAC -keep an eye out for electrifying WR Dawan Scott, who is capable to scoring a TD every time he touches the ball. Scott exploded onto the scene two weeks ago, catching 7 passes for 141 yards against Toledo. Last week, Scott caught three passes for 140 yards, highlighted by a 71-yard TD reception in Miami’s first series. The Redhawks will get the ball to him early and often, looking for the big play.
What Will Happen: With both defenses struggling, the offenses will take control of the game from the outset. Miami will score early, and the Zips will trade scores with them in the early going. However, the Redhawks simply have too many weapons on offense for Akron to keep up with. Miami pulls away in the second quarter for a decisive victory, and moves into a first place tie with Ohio University atop the MAC East.
CFN Prediction: Miami 38 … Akron 17
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Click For Latest Line From ATS: Miami -14 O/U:
47.5
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