2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 10, ULL at ULM
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Nov. 5 at Louisiana-Lafayette 36 … ULM 35
CFN Analysis: COMING
(AP) LAFAYETTE, La. -- Alonzo Harris only had 10 rushing yards in the game, but three of those came for a touchdown on Louisiana-Lafayette's final offensive play with 1:06 left to seal a 36-35 win over Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday.
That score was one of two by the Ragin' Cajuns (8-2, 6-1 Sun Belt Conference) in the game's final two minutes, the other coming on Blaine Gautier's 16-yard pass to Darryl Surgent, to seal the comeback win. The Ragin' Cajuns secured an onside kick after their first touchdown of the fourth quarter to set the stage for their game-winner less than a minute later.
Louisiana-Lafayette failed to punch in two-point conversion attempts on both scores.
Jyruss Edwards ran in a 3-yard score to put the Warhawks (2-7, 1-4) up 35-24 with 3:08 to play, setting up their in-state rivals' comeback.
Gautier passed for 355 yards and four touchdowns for Louisiana-Lafayette.
ULM (2-6) at ULL (7-2) Nov. 5, 3:30 Sun Belt Network
Here’s The Deal … These two bitter in-state rivals will take the field with two very different mindsets. ULM is having a disastrous season, especially after being picked to finish so high in the preseason Sun Belt projections. The Warhawks nearly beat the surging WKU Hilltoppers last week, but they lost in overtime, dropping to 1-3 in conference play. ULM will be looking to spoil the Cajuns tremendous season as that is all the Warhawks have left to play for in 2011. ULL has been one of the great success stories of this football season, the Cajuns first under the direction of head coach Mark Hudspeth.
ULL is currently 5-1 in the SBC after a demolition of Middle Tennessee State on the road last week. The Cajuns have their most wins in 18 years, and they are sitting just one game out of first place in the conference. The team leading the standings is Arkansas State, and if ULL can knock off the Warhawks then the Cajuns will be playing for a conference championship in their final game of the year – next week in Jonesboro against the Red Wolves.
Why ULM Might Win: In a rivalry game anything can happen, and ULM will be looking for revenge after dropping the last three in the series against ULL. The Warhawks have struggled to win all year, but one part of the team that has excelled is the defense. ULM ranks first in the Sun Belt in rushing defense and total defense. The Cajuns biggest strength on offense is running the football, so if ULM can control the line of scrimmage and force ULL to put the ball in the air then the Warhawks will have a chance to pull off the upset in Lafayette.
Why ULL Might Win: The Warhawks do not allow many yards, but they do allow points in bunches as their offense is constantly making mistakes and setting up the defense with its back against the wall. ULL has the number one scoring offense in the SBC, averaging 35 points per game which is nearly two touchdowns more per game than ULM. The Cajuns also have discovered a lethal weapon in the backfield in true freshman RB Alonzo Harris. He had his breakout game last week in Murfreesboro, racking up 189 rushing yards and two touchdowns to lead the Cajuns to their impressive conference win over MTSU. There are more weapons throughout the depth chart for ULL to begin with, and ULM has seen several of its starters go down with season ending injuries in the past couple of weeks which should make it even tougher for the Warhawks to pull off the improbably road victory.
What To Watch Out For: ULM S Darius Prelow & ULL LB Devon Lewis-Buchanan. Prelow is the Warhawks best defensive player by far, but he suffered an injury against WKU last week. It is unknown if he will be able to play this weekend, and if he does not then this will be a huge blow for the Warhawks. Prelow ranks 7th in the nation with four interceptions, and he also has 52 tackles, including three for losses. Without him the Cajuns should be able to push the ball downfield with much more success which would nullify the strength up front in the ULM defense.
Lewis-Buchanan will be playing his last game at home, and he will be looking to leave Lafayette with an outstanding performance to match the effort he turned in last week against the Blue Raiders. He intercepted a pass and ran it back 55 yards for a touchdown, and he also had six total tackles with one going for a loss. He has 47 total stops on the year, and he is the leader in the middle of a Cajun defense that will need to contain ULM QB Kolton Browning who is a threat running and throwing the ball. ULL will have to be fundamentally sound to avoid getting burned deep on play-action or giving up easy yards on the ground to Browning by dropping too deep in protection.
What Will Happen: ULL is on a mission this year, and their fans are believing. The Cajuns are on pace to smash their all-time record for average attendance per game in a season, and there should be an electric atmosphere for this home finale. ULL has a more efficient offense and the Cajuns have the confidence that seems to be missing from the Warhawks this year. This game will be close for a while before ULL pulls away in the second half to set up a de-facto conference championship game at Arkansas State next week.
CFN Prediction: ULL 34 … ULM 17
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Click For Latest Line From ATS: ULL -4.5
O/U: 52
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