2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 10, Utah State at Hawaii
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Utah State (2-5) at Hawaii (5-3) Sat, Nov 05, 12:00am ET, ESPN Gameplan,
Here’s The Deal… Drama lovers take note, these two put on some close games. Gut wrenching heart-pounding edge of the seat 4th quarter dramatics have been normalized in both teams season so far. This will be a match between the WAC’s #1 passing team (Hawaii) against the WAC’s #1 rushing team (USU.) It will be the WAC top scoring team (USU) against the WAC’s #2 scoring team (Hawaii,) so expect an entertaining night. The difference seems to be that Hawaii is better at winning and Utah State is better at losing these close games.
Why Utah State might win: Utah State will put the nations 24th scoring offense against the nations 63rd scoring defense. Utah States 40th national pass efficiency defense which ranks #1 in the WAC, sports several nickel packages to oppose the Hawaii offense, while its offense leads the WAC in rushing and scoring. Utah State senior linebacker and leading tackler Bobby Wagner will play a key role in playing double duty in pass protection and run stopping. Of course run stopping can be considered synonymous with QB containment and pressure in this case with Hawaii’s Bryant Moniz.
Why Hawaii might win: Hawaii plays this at home. This will be Hawaii’s 4th home game. All three of its losses have come on the road. None of its 3 previous home games have been closer than 11 points, while all but one of its 5 road games have resulted in a loss or very slim victory. Hawaii will oppose Utah States 6th national rush with the 23rd national rushing D, and the nations 8th passing offense against the 47th national pass defense.
What To Watch Out For: The defenses. It might be hard to notice, but these two teams are made to oppose one another. Not only is this basically a pass offense against a rush offense, but USU uses a lot of nickel 5 defensive back sets, while Hawaii is using a defensive set they call the elephant which is essentially a 5 D-lineman base set. USU wants to rush offensively and Hawaii is set up to oppose the rush defensively. Hawaii wants to pass offensively and USU is set up to oppose the pass. With the pattern they both have of close performances this really is an interesting game on so many levels including from a technical standpoint.
What Will Happen: Staying up late on the east coast for this game to kick off might be well worth it. It’ll probably be good enough to keep you awake from there on. This game will almost certainly feature several changes of lead. Utah State may be the best 2-5 team in the nation, but it tends to find ways to lose close games while Hawaii finds ways to win them. Home field will count for enough to expect a Hawaii favorable outcome. The USU defense has its merits, but being able to significantly shut down any pass game has yet to be one. Still this match has plenty of room for expectations to fly out the window.
CFN Prediction: Hawaii 40... Utah State 30
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Click For Latest Line From ATS: Hawaii -3.5
O/U: 58
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