2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 11, Texas at Missouri
Big 12 Fearless Predictions &
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Nov. 12 at Missouri 17 … Texas 5
CFN Analysis: That’s the Missouri defense everyone was waiting for. The talent is there up front and the experience is there in the linebacking corps, but the production hasn’t been up to snuff. After getting ripped up by Baylor, the Tigers played with fire and fury at home, keeping Texas to 247 total yards and stuffing the run. … Henry Josey got beaten up and battered with an apparent concussion and then a knee injury. He only ran for 19 yards on 11 carries, but Kendial Lawrence stepped in and ran for 106 yards and a score. … James Franklin was perfect to start the game, and while he only ran for 33 yards, he completed 18-of-26 passes for 186 yards, hitting his first ten throws. … After all the consistency problems, the Tigers should end up with a decent 7-5 finish if they can take care of Texas Tech and Kansas.
After the offense came up with its best performance of the year with a blowout of Texas Tech, it couldn’t’ get anything going against Missouri because the O line got whipped. The running game didn’t have anywhere to go. … Malcolm Brown didn’t play on his injured toe, and Jeremy Hills was only able to finish with a team-leading 35 yards on 11 carries. … David Ash and Case McCoy looked like rookies. However, Ash once again as a knack for generating the midrange pass play, throwing for 158 yards on just 13 completions. … The Longhorns are going bowling, but they need to beat Kansas State or else the Texas A&M game will become even bigger.
(AP) COLUMBIA, Mo. -- Kendial Lawrence topped 100 yards with a touchdown in relief of injured Henry Josey and Missouri's defense kept Texas (No. 16 BCS, No. 21 AP) out of the end zone for the first time since 2004 in a 17-5 upset on Saturday that ended a six-game losing streak in the series.
James Franklin completed his first 10 passes and ran for a 2-yard score for the Tigers (5-5, 3-4 Big 12), who beat Texas for the first time since 1997. Lawrence had 106 yards on 18 carries with a 35-yard score in the second quarter.
Texas (6-3, 3-3) entered with injury concerns at running back and was held to 76 yards rushing in only its third road game of the year. Missouri allowed only a chip-shot field goal for the game's first score and a safety off a blocked punt in the third quarter.
The Longhorns led by a combined 70-10 at halftime in the last two meetings but trailed 14-3 this time -- Missouri's first lead in the series since a 17-16 edge in 1997.
The previous two weeks at home, Texas whipped Kansas and Texas Tech by a combined 95-20 and topped 400 yards rushing in both games. Leading rusher Malcolm Brown (toe) and Joe Bergeron (hamstring) got no carries and the depth chart got leaner after Fozzy Whitaker left with an apparent right knee injury while making a cut in the first quarter.
Josey was carted off with an apparent left knee injury in the third quarter. Texas coach Mack Brown came across the field to check on Josey, the Big 12's leading rusher from Angleton, Texas.
Josey also missed the last nine minutes of the first half after an apparent helmet-to-helmet hit.
Lawrence, who won the tailback job in fall drills but was shelved for three games early in the season by a broken fibula, stepped up with 79 yards on eight carries and a TD before intermission.
Missouri controlled play in the half even after fumbling away a scoring chance on its first drive when Emmnauel Acho stripped L'Damian Washington after a reception and Texas recovered at its own 12.
Franklin scored his 11th rushing touchdown on a 2-yard keeper to put Missouri ahead and Lawrence's 35-yard run made it 14-3 with 4:43 to go in the half.
Eric Waters' blocked punt set up Missouri at the 1 for its first score in the third quarter in four games, though the Tigers had to settle for a 19-yard field goal by Trey Barrow that made it 17-3.
Less than four minutes later, Leroy Scott's blocked punt out of the end zone gave Texas two points.
Texas (6-2) at Missouri (4-5) Nov. 12, 12:00, FX
Welcome back, Texas.
No, Texas isn’t back to being the national title-level monster it’s used to being, but it appears to be well on its way with a great nucleus of young players and a decent 6-2 record. The two losses came to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State – no shame there this week – and while blowing away Kansas and Texas Tech might not seem like much right now, after last year’s disaster, yes, being back in a bowl is a nice comeback. However, now the tests start to come again.
Missouri is better than its 4-5 record – really, it is – but four losses in the last six games have turned a possible great season into a potential disaster. After a wild comeback at Baylor fell short last week, now there’s little margin for error the rest of the way needing to win two of the final three games to get a bowl bid before shuffling off to the SEC.
The Tiger offense is fantastic, averaging 500 yards per game, but the defense continues to have problems slowing down anyone with a pulse and the lack of consistency is a big problem. The talent is in place, but the team can’t seem to put it all together and it’s not jelling. Now, to change the season around, Mizzou has to break a run of 15 losses in the last 16 games against Texas going back to 1916.
The Tigers are just dangerous enough and good enough for Texas to need everything in the bag to come up with the win. For all the good things the Longhorns have done to get to six wins, there’s still time for things to fall apart with Kansas State, an emotional trip to Texas A&M, and a road date at Baylor still to deal with. The team is playing well enough to finish with ten wins and possible be the third best team in the Big 12, and this year and with this young team that would be a terrific season.
Why Texas Might Win: Missouri’s defense has been a stunning disaster, and the Texas offense is getting hot at just the right time.
Even without a few of its best players – missing running back Malcolm Brown and receiver Jaxon Shipley – the Longhorns rolled up 52 points on Texas Tech after putting up 43 on Kansas. The passing game might not be anything special, but it’s not awful, and the offensive line is doing a great job of pounding away for the ground game. Missouri hasn’t even been close lately, giving up 291 rushing yards and 725 total yards to Baylor, while giving up 300 passing yards or more in each of the last three games and four of the last six battles. Texas should be able to do whatever it wants to.
The Tiger passing game has been excellent, but the offense has been at its best by running the ball. Texas might be inconsistent defensively at times, but take away the two games against Oklahoma and the defense hasn’t allowed more than 20 points to anyone else. The run defense has been a rock, allowing 202 yards to Oklahoma State and not giving up more than 141 yards to anyone else, and the defensive front should be able to key on the Tigers runners and keep the MU offense in check. However …
Why Missouri Might Win: It’s not like the Longhorns have played against many teams that can pound away. UCLA is 32nd in the nation in rushing, and it came up with 141 yards – the second-best performance against the Longhorns this year. The best rushing teams in the Big 12 – Missouri, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Baylor – are coming up in the next four games.
The Texas run defense really is strong, but most of the ground games on the slate so far have been average, at best. Missouri can come at Texas from a variety of ways, with Henry Josey one of the nation’s hottest backs, and James Franklin a talented, mobile quarterback who can make things happen when things break down. Mizzou’s ground game is at a whole other level, running for 240 yards or more in six of the last seven games with 20 touchdowns over the span.
Defensively, no, the Tiger defense hasn’t come up with enough big stops lately, but it’s good at getting into the backfield and it should be able to come up with consistent pressure on the Texas quarterbacks that have been popped a bit too much. Texas has a slew of great young players, but it’s still relying on an untested player in …
What To Watch Out For: David Ash, a strong prospect who’s starting to make the offense his. The true freshman has thrown five picks and just three touchdown passes, with no scoring throws and three interceptions in the last three games, but he connected on 14-of-18 passes against Kansas and threw for 125 yards on just 4-of-7 completions against Texas Tech, while running for 59 yards on four carries. He’s still growing into the job, and Case McCoy is still an option who 3-for-3 in his limited time over the last few weeks, but he appears to be a star to work the attack around.
Texas running back Malcolm Brown is trying to come back from a toe injury, missing last week’s game against Texas Tech, but he might be just the second best young runner in the game. Sophomore Henry Josey has carries the Missouri attack with 100 yards or more in five of the last six games, and now he’s starting to hit more home runs. Against Baylor, he took off 15 times for 132 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 8.8 yards per carry. Texas has been dominant when it comes to time of possession, and Josey has to keep the chains moving and control the clock at home.
What Will Happen: Missouri will finally get back on track. The defensive line will have problems holding up against the run for a full sixty minutes, and the Texas defense will keep Josey and Franklin from blowing up, but the Tiger secondary will have its best game in weeks and being at home will be a major plus. This will be the Missouri team everyone was waiting for.
CFN Prediction: Missouri 34 … Texas 31
Click For Latest Line From ATS: Texas -1 O/U: 58.5
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