2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 11 - UCF at Southern Miss
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Nov. 12 at Southern Miss 30 … UCF 29
(AP) HATTIESBURG, Miss. -- Danny Hrapmann kicked five field goals and Southern Miss (No. 22 BCS, No. 25 AP) hung onto its Conference USA title hopes and avoided an upset with a 30-29 win over Central Florida on Saturday night.
Central Florida's J.J. Whorton caught a 25-yard touchdown pass as time expired, but Southern Miss safety Jacorious Cotton got a hand on Blake Bortles' 2-point conversion pass to seal the win.
Hrapmann made all five field-goal attempts, including kicks of 42, 44 and 48 yards, and made both of his extra point attempts to propel Southern Miss to its first 9-1 start since 1962.
Austin Davis threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns.
Bortles came on in relief of UCF starter Jeff Godfrey and completed 24 of 34 passes for 248 yards and two touchdowns, with one interception.
Central Florida (4-6) has lost four of its last five games and six out of eight.
Southern Miss was turned away in the red zone four times and never established a running game, managing 127 yards on the ground.
The Knights held Southern Miss to three third-down conversions on 14 attempts. One of those conversions came with Southern Miss trailing 23-22 on 3rd-and-7 from the Southern Miss 23. Davis found Briggs down the sideline for a 34-yard pass, and five plays later, connected for a 4-yard, go-ahead touchdown.
Southern Miss won at least a share of the Conference USA East title, but still needs to win one of its last two against UAB and Memphis to earn a berth in the championship game.
UCF (4-5) at Southern Miss (8-1) Nov. 12, 8:00, CBS Sports Network
Here’s The Deal … Southern Miss took control of the East Division with an impressive 48-28 rout of East Carolina on Saturday. With a win this week, it’ll add an exclamation point. Despite handling UCF in the regular season the last three years, the Golden Eagles have lagged behind their rival in the divisional pecking order … until now. Head coach Larry Fedora’s fourth team in Hattiesburg has won seven straight games, cracking the AP Top 25 for the first time in seven years this past Sunday. Still, USM remains just a game ahead of Marshall, a team it lost to back on Sept. 10, so it’ll need to avoid any lapses in November.
No Conference USA team has been a bigger disappointment in 2011 than the Knights, the defending champs who’ve gone 2-5 since starting 2-0. It’s going to take two more wins for UCF to become bowl eligible, and salvage something positive out of this otherwise deflating and improbable campaign in Orlando.
Why UCF Might Win: The only reason that the Knights aren’t more than a game below the .500 mark has been because of the play of a stout defense. The unit, a fixture for years in Central Florida, leads Conference USA in run defense, pass defense, total defense and scoring D. Despite being on the field more than it should this fall, UCF has persevered with good speed and even better fundamentals. There are all-star-caliber defenders at every level, including DT Victor Gray, linebackers Josh Linam and Jonathan Davis and defensive backs Josh Robinson and Kemal Ishmael. When you play defense and run the ball as well as the Knights, no challenge is out of reach.
Why Southern Miss Might Win: Yeah, it’s going to get a little lost when you’re campus is in Hattiesburg, but the Golden Eagles have played extremely well in all phases during the winning streak. Take last week’s win over East Carolina, for instance. In producing 48 points, Southern Miss got two touchdowns from the defense, two touchdowns from special teams and a score apiece from the running and passing game. Opponents have learned that USM can secure wins in a multitude of different ways. If QB Austin Davis and the rest of the offense are unable to carry the team to the finish line, another unit will come to its rescue. Maybe Tracy Lampley will ignite the attack with a long return, or a DE Cordarro Law sack will cause a fumble that gets recovered by a teammate. On a team with so many playmakers, it’s never tough to mine new heroes.
What To Watch Out For: One of the more impressive aspects of Southern Miss’ season is that the team has overcome a spate of injuries to the running backs. Sure, the team is deep at the position, but Kendrick Hardy, Desmond Johnson and Jamal Woodyard have all missed time this fall. One piece of good news is that Johnson, the starter in the opener, has returned from a knee injury that’s shelved him for the last eight games. After chipping off some rust with 11 carries for 47 yards and a score a week ago, he’ll be better prepared to handle a bigger load this Saturday.
What Will Happen: This is a different Southern Miss team … and a different UCF one as well. These two programs are traveling down disparate, the former toward a possible Conference USA title, and the latter to a disappointing finish. The Golden Eagles will revel in an opportunity to pile a little more dirt on the struggling Knights. The beauty of Fedora’s squad is that it’s multidimensional, winning games in so many different ways. This week, they’ll roll on the strength of a defense that’ll keep UCF in check long enough for the team to build a comfortable cushion.
CFN Prediction: Southern Miss 31 … UCF 17
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