2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 12 - Oklahoma St at Iowa St
Big 12 Fearless Predictions &
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Nov. 18 at Iowa State 37 … Oklahoma State 31 2OT
CFN Analysis: How did Iowa State pull off the shocker? Oklahoma State didn’t play up to its normal energy level and effectiveness, but give the Cyclones credit for tackling. The stats aren’t pretty, but there yards after the catch were kept to a bare minimum with linebackers A.J. Klein and Jake Knott combining for 27 tackles. The back seven kept everything in front of them. … Leonard Johnson did a great job on Justin Blackmon. The final stats are misleading. … Call this the national coming out party for Jared Barnett after throwing for 376 yards and three scores and running for 84 yards on 14 carries. Seneca Wallace never came up with a win this big. … With road games at Oklahoma State and Kansas State to follow, this win was everything for a bowl game. After the loss to Nebraska last year, winning a game like this is that much sweeter for the Paul Rhoads era.
Oklahoma State obviously didn’t have the normal fire and energy after the tragic events of the day. Even so, there were chances to win the game and the team didn’t come through. From the Quinn Sharp missed field goal – it looked like it could’ve been called good – to blowing the 24-7 lead and failing to score in regulation after an early touchdown pass, the team didn’t put it away. … Even with the yards after the catch being kept to a minimum, Brandon Weeden still threw for 476 yards and three scores, but the three interceptions made all the difference. … The national title might be gone but the Big 12 title and the Fiesta Bowl are still there. As disappointing as this was, a win over Oklahoma would still make this an epic season.
(AP) AMES, Iowa -- This was supposed to be so easy for Oklahoma State.
The second-ranked Cowboys came into Ames set to cruise past overmatched Iowa State, and set up a showdown with rival Oklahoma at home. With a spot in the BCS title game spot on the line.
Then Oklahoma State let the upstart Cyclones hang around just long enough to derail all those national title hopes.
Backup running back Jeff Woody scored on a 4-yard run in the second overtime and Iowa State stunned second-ranked Oklahoma State 37-31 on Friday night, opening the door for a couple of one-loss teams.
The Cyclones (6-4, 3-4 Big 12) overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Cowboys (10-1, 7-1 Big 12), opening a path for Oregon or Alabama to face LSU in a rematch for the title.
"This one stings. This one's tough," said Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden, who threw three interceptions.
None of those stung more than his first pass in the second overtime, which was intercepted by Ter'Ran Benton. Woody ran for 6 and 15 yards, then bullied his way into the end zone to give the Cyclones their first victory over a top-five opponent in school history.
Weeden threw for 476 yards, but the Cowboys' offense turned it over five times.
"I hate it for the guys. But it's real simple. If you lose the turnover battle in such a big fashion, it's extremely hard to win a game, especially on the road," Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said.
Playing a day after Oklahoma State women's basketball coach Kurt Budke and three others were killed in a plane crash, the Cowboys were 27-point favorites against the Cyclones.
Iowa State lost its first four Big 12 games and entered play 0-56-2 against teams ranked sixth or higher in The Associated Press poll.
Cyclones coach Paul Rhoads has had some signature wins in his three seasons in Ames -- but none as big as this.
"We got a group of young men that put their hard hats on every day and just continue to go to work," Rhoads said. "I could not be prouder of the effort they put out tonight."
Iowa State freshman quarterback Jared Barnett found James White for a 25-yard touchdown on the first play of extra time, but Weeden answered with a 6-yard TD pass to Josh Cooper.
Benton's interception set up a thrilling finish for the Cyclones and Rhoads, the defensive coordinator at Pittsburgh when it upset No. 2 West Virginia in 2007.
Barnett finished with 376 yards passing and three TDs for Iowa State.
Oklahoma State stretched its lead to 24-7 less than 3 minutes into the second half and looked set to break it open as it usually does. Tracy Moore caught Weeden's pass in traffic and stumbled 30 yards for the touchdown.
That could have been it for Iowa State -- but the Cyclones were far from finished.
Iowa State answered with a 32-yard TD run from White and Zach Guyer's 24-yard field goal made it 24-17 with 4:04 left in the third quarter.
Oklahoma State came in averaging 51.7 points a game, but it couldn't string together the drives that made Weeden a serious Heisman Trophy contender.
Iowa State took advantage, tying the game at 24 with 5:30 left in regulation when Barnett found Albert Gary sliding in the end zone for a 7-yard TD catch. Oklahoma State's Alex Elkins intercepted Barnett's pass with 3:17 left, but Sharp pushed a 37-yard field goal right, just over the upright, with 1:17 to go to force overtime.
It was just the third missed field goal in 20 tries for Sharp.
Iowa State knew it would need a lot of breaks to pull off the upset.
The Cyclones caught a few early, recovering a fumble and intercepting Weeden's pass in the first quarter. But they didn't turn either into points, and the Cowboys' defense made them pay for it.
Linebacker Shaun Lewis jumped Barnett's pass and took it back 70 yards for a touchdown, giving Oklahoma State a 7-0 lead late in the first quarter.
Iowa State pulled to 10-7 on Barnett's 16-yard TD pass to Darius Reynolds. But Justin Blackmon stopped short and went high for Weeden's pass over a pair of defenders on a 27-yard touchdown reception, giving Oklahoma State a 17-7 lead with 5:26 left before halftime.
"They came out ready to play. They came high with the crowd, getting them going. It was a good environment to play in. But this is why we play football, to win in positions like this. We just needed to finish," Blackmon said.
Iowa State held a moment of silence before the game to honor Budke, assistant Miranda Serna and two others who were killed Thursday when their single-engine plane crashed during a recruiting trip in Arkansas.
"The plane crash, for the families and people involved, is just tragic, and honestly, I would have said this no matter the outcome of the game. It's so much more important than this game," Gundy said. "These guys wanted to go out and play the best they could for themselves, for us, the fans, and for OSU, and it just didn't come out in their favor tonight."
Oklahoma State (10-0) at Iowa State (5-4) Nov. 18, 8:00, ESPN/ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … Can Iowa State screw up the fun?
Oklahoma State just has to hit the four-foot putt and it’ll get 14 days to rest up, prepare, and deal with the hype for the unofficial Big 12 championship game against Oklahoma with a spot for the national title on the line. It doesn’t matter if the Cowboys beat Iowa State by two or 52, as long as they get out of Ames alive, the championship will still be on the table in what’ll be the most important game in the long and storied history of the Bedlam rivalry. Meanwhile, the Cyclones will get three whacks at the Justin Verlander fastball, and it needs to hit one to go bowling.
It’s Senior Day for Iowa State, and while it’s playing the No. 2 team in America, this might be the best chance of the final three to get the desperately needed sixth win, with road trips to Oklahoma and Kansas State to finish up the slate.
The Cyclones have won two straight, shocking Texas Tech 41-7 before slipping by Kansas 13-10, but very quickly they need to figure out how to score more. Inconsistent, they’ve scored more than 17 points just twice since mid-September despite averaging close to 400 yards per game. The passing game is among the least-efficient in America, and while the running game is good, it’s not enough to pick up the slack against the better offensive teams.
Basically, they have to come up with something magical to beat the juggernaut.
Oklahoma State is on an epic roll, averaging 51.7 points per game after dropping some evil on Texas Tech in a 66-6 victory. The defense might be hit-or-miss, but the high-powered attack is humming on all cylinders, dipping below 45 points just three times showing off frightening efficiency and effectiveness. With a national TV audience, it’s time to show the world that yes, this really might be the other team in the BCS championship, and yes, it really might be okay.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Iowa State simply doesn’t have the firepower. The passing game is 113th in the nation in efficiency and the running game, while strong, only averages 183 yards per game and isn’t great at keeping the tempo and the pace under control. It shouldn’t take that many points to put the game away against a team doesn’t have the weapons to put up the 50 points likely needed to pull off the win. The passing game is the least-efficient in the Big 12 and the offensive line is too banged up and too porous to allow the time needed to push the ball down the field. Oklahoma State’s aggressive defense feeds off of mediocre O lines and is terrific at forcing mistakes.
And that could be ISU’s biggest problem: turnovers. It’ll take at least a +3 for the Cyclones to make up the stagger and to get a few easy and cheap points, but they’re last in the Big 12 giving up the ball 24 times this year to offset 15 takeaways. Along with all the other great things OSU does, it doesn’t screw up, leading the nation in turnover margin thanks to an aggressive defense that’s come up with a whopping 19 interceptions and 15 fumble recoveries.
Why Iowa State Might Win: Jared Barnett has to run wild. The freshman was thrown into the fire for an ineffective and dinged up Steele Jantz, and he’s been a baller, leading the way to the win over Texas Tech with 92 yards and a score, and running for 125 yards on 22 carries against Kansas. He’s not going to throw the ball much, failing to complete half his passes so far and with just one touchdown with two picks in four games, but Oklahoma State has had problems with mobile quarterbacks, allowing Kansas State’s Collin Klein to run for 144 yards and three scores and giving up 55 yards to Missouri’s James Franklin. Baylor’s Robert Griffin was too busy throwing for over 400 yards to run.
Iowa State’s defense is hardly a rock, especially against the run, but it’s been able to hold up reasonably well against the high-powered passing teams. The secondary shut down Texas Tech cold, and allowed just 263 yards to Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill and 212 yards to Griffin. Granted, most teams are too busy running wild on the Cyclone front seven to worry about throwing, but the secondary really has been decent.
What To Watch Out For: The Iowa State linebacking tandem of Jake Knott and A.J. Klein have lived up to expectations. They’ve had to make way too many plays with the porous defensive line not coming up with enough stops, but they veteran duo is making every tackle. Knott has been a playmaker throughout the year, highlighted by 18 tackles against Baylor, but he’s not getting into the backfield. He’s spending too much time stopping the run, while Klein has been steady throughout while growing into more of a playmaker behind the line with 6.5 tackles for loss including a sack last week against KU.
However, the two great ISU linebackers will have their hands full with Oklahoma State’s Joseph Randle, who’s too quick and too good for the slowish ISU back seven. The sophomore is the unsung star in the machine, cranking out 21 rushing scores on the year including 12 in the last four games. Seven yards away from 1,000, he should hit that on his first carry, while also making big things happen in the passing game after being used more and more on dump-off passes. He has 32 catches on the year with 11 in the last two games, with the goal to get him into open space as much as possible.
What Will Happen: Iowa State will come up with a good start to generate a buzz and make people think the impossible will happen. And then Brandon Weeden will be Brandon Weeden and he’s methodically lead the Cowboys to scoring drive after scoring drive and the Cyclones won’t be able to keep up. The fourth quarter will be spent starting the two week pregame show for OU.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 52 … Iowa State 20
Click For Latest Line From ATS: Oklahoma State -27.5 O/U: 66.5
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