2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 12, Iowa at Purdue
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Nov. 19 Iowa 31 … at Purdue 21
CFN Analysis: It took way too much work to put the Boilermakers away. The Hawkeyes dominated, and came up with one of their better defensive performances, but it was still a fight. Even so, after the loss to Michigan State, it was a good bounceback game to lock up a decent bowl bid with a trip to Nebraska up next. … The defensive line was terrific with Broderick Binns and a sack finishing with seven tackles and Mike Daniels adding eight stops and two sacks. … James Vandenberg threw for 273 yards and three scores, Marcus Coker ran for 139 yards and a score on 30 carries, and Marvin McNutt caught nine passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns. This is how it’s supposed to work, but it’s supposed to be an easier win.
Purdue couldn’t build on the win over Ohio State with little from the running game and not enough from the quarterbacks to pick up the slack. Robert Marve struggled after looking so sharp against the Buckeyes, completing just 7-of-18 passes for 95 yards and two picks. … The defense couldn’t stop anything the Hawkeyes wanted to do in the second half, and the offense couldn’t score until it was too late. There wasn’t any consistency; nothing was working in the second half. .... The run defense couldn’t stop Marcus Coker and the secondary couldn’t figure out how to slow down Marvin McNutt, giving up a 51-yard scoring pass in the fourth that put the game away. … There’s still time to go bowling, but it’ll take a win over Indiana on the road to do it. After losing three of their last four games, a loss to the Hoosiers would be a disastrous way to close.
(AP) WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. -- James Vandenberg threw three touchdown passes, including two to Marvin McNutt, to help Iowa defeat Purdue 31-21 on Saturday for the Hawkeyes' first road win of the season.
Vandenberg passed for 273 yards, and McNutt caught nine passes for 151 yards.
Marcus Coker rushed for 139 yards on 30 carries for the Hawkeyes (7-4, 4-3 Big Ten), who had lost their three road games by a combined 14 points.
The Hawkeyes outgained the Boilermakers 408 yards to 286 but struggled to put away scrappy Purdue.
Antavian Edison caught nine passes for 97 yards and Ralph Bolden ran for 71 yards for Purdue on Senior Day. Quarterback Robert Marve threw two interceptions and fumbled once.
The Boilermakers (5-6, 3-4) need to win Saturday at Indiana to become bowl-eligible.
Iowa scored on its first possession with a 26-yard touchdown pass from Vandenberg to McNutt.
Purdue responded with a 13-play, 63-yard drive. Gabe Holmes caught his first career touchdown pass, a 14-yarder from Caleb TerBush, to tie the score.
Iowa answered when Vandenberg found C.J. Fiedorowicz for a 5-yard touchdown pass to make it 14-7.
Purdue's Carson Wiggs considered a fake punt but decided to kick while running instead. It was blocked by Collin Sleeper, and Iowa recovered at the Purdue 9. The Boilermakers caught a break when Mica'il McCall fumbled on the second play of Iowa's possession, and Purdue's Will Lucas recovered.
After an exchange of punts, Marve stepped in at quarterback for TerBush and led the Boilermakers down the field. But Tanner Miller intercepted Marve at the Iowa 1-yard line.
On the next play, Vandenberg dropped back into his end zone and was pressured by Dwayne Beckford. Vandenberg fumbled as he was going down, and Purdue's Brandon Taylor recovered in the end zone to tie the score at 14.
Iowa took a 21-14 halftime lead on a 2-yard touchdown run by Coker with 31 seconds left in the second quarter. The Hawkeyes outgained the Boilermakers 257 yards to 117 and held the ball for more than 19 minutes in the first half.
Iowa's Mike Meyer kicked a 38-yard field goal, and then Vandenberg connected with McNutt again for a 51-yard touchdown on the first play of the fourth quarter to give Iowa a 31-14 lead.
Ralph Bolden's 11-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter after TerBush returned to the game cut Iowa's lead to 31-21.
Marve re-entered the game on a fourth-and-18 situation and completed a 22-yard pass to Edison. He closed the drive with what looked like a touchdown run, but he fumbled into the pylon for a touchback, and Iowa took over.
Iowa (6-4) at Purdue (5-5) Nov. 19, 12:00, BTN
Here’s The Deal … Iowa is already bowl eligible and Purdue has Indiana to close out the season – a fallback for a sixth win if it doesn’t get one this week – but a post-season trip is hardly assured. The Big Ten will have ten bowl eligible teams if Northwestern can beat an awful Minnesota this week and if Purdue can get one more win, and there won’t be enough spots. Some might fill in somewhere there’s a cold left by another conference, and someone else will probably be left out entirely. However, 7-5 will get it done, and a shaky Iowa that’s been having so many problems with its consistency needs to come up with a win now with a date at Nebraska next week.
The Hawkeyes were awful on the road over the first nine games and fine at home, going 6-0 in Iowa City and 0-3 away, but Michigan State came into town last week and ruined Senior Day with a decisive 14 point win. The defensive line has been mediocre, the offense can’t seem to sustain long drives, and the points have stopped flowing, averaging 22 points a game over the last three after routinely putting 40 on the board. Winners of four of the last five games against the Boilermakers, this is no longer looking like the routine win it appeared to be just last week.
Purdue didn’t look like it belonged in the same conference with Wisconsin in an ugly 62-17 trashing two weeks ago. Losers of three of four games, and with an offense that appeared to be woefully inept and without any playmakers, the Boilermakers appeared to be playing out the string. They came up with a good effort against Ohio State, but after giving up a late score it appeared they’d be coming away with a moral victory, if not a real one. One blocked extra point later, they took the game to overtime and pulled off the shocker. Now there’s a chance for the first winning season and first bowl game since 2007.
Why Iowa Might Win: Time to pound away again. Iowa’s offensive line isn’t exactly the killer it’s been over past seasons, but it was starting to get into a lather with great games against Indiana and Minnesota, and a not-that-bad effort against Michigan, paving the way for a big day from Marcus Coker. And then it fell flat against the terrific Michigan State defensive front and couldn’t get anything moving. That won’t be a problem this week against a Purdue defensive front that can get into the backfield from time to time, but was flattened by Wisconsin, blown away by Michigan, and rumbled over by Ohio State. The linebackers aren’t all that big and get be hit, and the secondary has to make way too many stops in the second level.
Purdue isn’t going to come up with enough big plays up front to change the momentum of the game. The secondary hasn’t come up with a pick in a few weeks, while the D has come up with just one fumble recovery in the last five games. Iowa has lost seven fumbles this year with five of them coming in the losses, while going 4-0 when it doesn’t cough up the ball. However …
Why Purdue Might Win: The Boilermakers aren’t putting the ball on the ground either. The team has lost just one fumble in the last seven games and has given it up just three times all season long. Interceptions have been a bit of a problem, but Iowa’s defense has taken most of the year off when it comes to forcing turnovers. It grabbed three fumbles against Iowa State and picked off two passes against both Tennessee Tech and Pitt, but those were within the first three games. The Hawkeyes have just six takeaways in the last seven games.
How did Purdue beat Ohio State? It did a great job of keeping the chains moving, converting 9-of-18 third down chances with the passing game clicking when it had to, while the running game ground out nine first downs. In the win over Illinois, the Boilermakers also did a nice job on third downs, and against Minnesota it connected on 8-of-16 third down chances. Iowa’s defense has been awful when it comes time to get off the field, allowing teams to convert on 46% of their third down chances.
What To Watch Out For: All of a sudden, Purdue had a two quarterback system that worked. Caleb TerBush has a big-time arm and good upside, doing a nice job against Ohio State completing 15-of-24 passes for 140 yards, but it was Robert Marve who took over the game completing 10-of-13 passes for 94 yards and a pick and rumbled in for the game-winning touchdown in overtime. TerBush will get the start, but Marve will be sprinkled in here and there.
At 6-1 and 185 pounds, Iowa junior Micah Hyde is big and provides a bit pop, but he hasn’t come up with the stops like he did last year. His role has changed, being used more against the run last year making 82 tackles to go along with four picks. This year he only has 56 tackles so far and he has just one pick since coming up with two against Pitt in mid-September. The defense needs more big plays out of him, especially more picks.
What Will Happen: Iowa will bounce back. It hasn’t done much of anything on the road so far, and it struggled last week against Michigan State, but Marcus Coker and the ground game will take control early and James Vandenberg will throw for an efficient and effective 200 yards to balance things out. Purdue will have its chance late, but unlike the Ohio State game, it won’t come through.
CFN Prediction: Iowa 24 … Purdue 20
Click For Latest Line From ATS: Iowa -2.5 O/U: 52
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