2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 12, Penn State at Ohio State
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Nov. 19 Penn State 20 … at Ohio State 14
CFN Analysis: The offensive line beat the Ohio State defensive line. Matt McGloin wasn’t great, but he got time to work and he didn’t have to force his throws, while Silas Redd fought through the shoulder problem to rip off a tough 63 yards. Stephon Green once again was the main man for the attack with 93 yards and two scores thanks to the line. … Ohio State only came up with two tackles for loss and no sacks. … The defense couldn’t figure out how to keep Braxton Miller in the pocket, but Glen Carson Nathan Stupar did what they could keeping some of the potentially big plays to a minimum. … This was Jack Crawford’s most important game of the year making two sacks and six tackles. … After all the problems and all the controversy, with one win over Wisconsin, the Nittany Lions will play for the Big Ten championship. They played like they were happy to get on the road.
Braxton Miller might be a superstar in the making, but there wasn’t any chance of coming back in the second half without a passing game. Penn State didn’t care a lick about anything down the field, even with DeVier Posey back. … Posey caught four passes for 66 yards, but there were a few big drops from the receivers and Miller was too erratic on the midrange passes. Even so, Miller’s legs kept the chains moving. … Ryan Shazier might have been out of position on a few key plays, but he ate up almost everything he got to with 15 tackles. … With all the Urban Meyer rumors floating around, a win over Michigan is a must for Luke Fickell. He might have dealt a lousy hand this year, but 6-6 at Ohio State doesn’t cut no matter what.
(AP) COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The last time Penn State won a game without Joe Paterno as coach was December 1965.
That day, the Nittany Lions used a strong defensive effort to beat Maryland, behind the coach who mentored Paterno, Rip Engle.
On Saturday, No. 21 Penn State earned its first victory since Paterno was fired with a similarly stingy defense.
Stephfon Green ran for two touchdowns and the Nittany Lions held Ohio State scoreless in the second half of the 20-14 victory on Saturday.
"We talked about the last two teams to win here were '78 and '08," said interim coach Tom Bradley, who was promoted after Paterno was fired 10 days ago. "I said to them, 'I want to know: How are you going to be remembered?'"
They'll be remembered as at least co-champs of the Big Ten's Leaders Division.
By clinching a share of the division title, Penn State (9-2, 6-1) set up showdown next week at Wisconsin, with the winner playing Michigan State in the conference's first championship game on Dec. 3.
Jay Paterno, the Nittany Lions' offensive coordinator and the son of the deposed legend, was already thinking ahead.
"As I've been trained to do my whole life, immediately (I) began to think about next week," he said of what was going through his head as he walked off the field at Ohio Stadium. "Essentially, we're in the Big Ten semifinal. I started to think about Wisconsin -- and I'll have some nightmares tonight."
Joe Paterno was a longtime assistant under Engle before getting promoted in 1966. The last game Engle coached, Penn State beat Maryland 19-7 on Dec. 4, 1965. The last time Penn State won a game without Joe Paterno on staff was Nov. 12, 1949, a 28-7 victory at Temple.
In what was expected to be a defensive struggle, the teams did all of their scoring in the opening half before the defenses took over.
Braxton Miller ran for a touchdown and threw a 7-yard scoring pass to Jake Stoneburner for Ohio State (6-5, 3-4), but he had an intentional grounding and three incompletions on the Buckeyes' final possession.
The teams exchanged handshakes at midfield after the opening coin toss -- although there was a smattering of boos from the Buckeyes faithful.
It was a gesture of mutual respect and sportsmanship in the wake of the scandal which has hit Penn State. A former defensive assistant coach was arrested two weeks earlier for allegedly molesting several young boys. Paterno was fired, the university president and AD lost their jobs and the NCAA is looking into the athletic program's actions.
Bradley said he spoke about how everyone was watching to see how the Nittany Lions would react and behave.
"I challenged the guys on the team to show a lot of character and resolve," he said. "Which they did."
Luke Fickell, Ohio State's interim head coach, was dogged by questions of his future. There have been numerous uncorroborated reports out there that the Buckeyes have already reached an agreement with former Florida coach Urban Meyer.
"I don't think this is the time nor the place," Fickell said. "We're talking about the game, and we're going to move on and talk about Michigan (next Saturday). ... Those are the things that I have no control over. So I'm not going to waste a whole lot of my energy on it."
Ohio State had one last shot to win the game, taking over after a Penn State punt with 36 seconds left. But Miller was being sacked by linebacker Nate Stupar when he was called for intentional grounding. Miller then was incomplete on three desperation heaves as a small pocket of Penn State fans ran onto the field to celebrate.
The teams were scoreless in the third quarter, thanks to a goal-line stand by the Buckeyes. Ohio State gave up the ball at its own 11 when Jordan Hall's wildcat handoff to Dan Herron was muffed in the backfield and Jordan Hill fell on the loose ball for the Nittany Lions.
Helped by two Ohio State penalties, Penn State had a first-and-goal from the 2 but failed to dent the goal line on four running plays. Storm Klein and Michael Bennett stopped Silas Redd as he vaulted the line on fourth-and-goal from inside the 1, stopping him short and bringing the crowd to its feet.
Bradley could have kicked a chip-shot field goal to make it a two-score lead, but that flew in the face of his pregame advice.
"There was no doubt in my mind we were going for it," he said. "I told them before the game that I'm asking those guys to go to the wall. I'm going to the wall."
The Buckeyes also turned it over on a Carlos Hyde fumble, but the Nittany Lions didn't score on that turnover either.
McGloin completed 10 of 18 passes for 88 yards with one interception. Green rushed 16 times for 93 yards, with Redd adding 63 yards on eight attempts in the bruising battle.
Miller, a freshman, ran for 105 yards on 18 attempts, with Herron adding 76 on eight carries. Miller completed 7 of 17 passes for 83 yards. DeVier Posey, playing his first game after serving two NCAA suspensions totaling 10 games for accepting improper benefits, had four catches for 66 yards.
Penn State, which had scored 24 points total in its last two games, had 20 in a first half of unexpected offense from both teams against stout defenses.
The Nittany Lions, ranked No. 102 in the nation in scoring at 21 points a game, needed just five plays to find the end zone. Green split two tacklers at the line after taking a direct snap and he outraced the defense for a 40-yard score that quieted a crowd of 105,493 on hand for Ohio State's senior day. He later added a 4-yard scoring run.
Ohio State fell behind 10-0 for the third game in the row later in the quarter when McGloin drove the Nittany Lions 54 yards and Anthony Fera converted a career-best 43-yard field goal. He would later top that by closing the half with a 46-yarder.
The Buckeyes, also at times offensively challenged, counterpunched on Miller's 24-yard sprint around right end for a TD and his pass to Stoneburner for another score to cut the lead to 17-14.
They'd never get closer, however.
For a day, at least, Penn State's players were able to enjoy themselves. Still, their thoughts strayed back to the 84-year-old Paterno, who is battling a treatable form of lung cancer.
"A game is a game," McGloin said. "Whether we win or lose out there, it's not going to help him out at all. But it definitely made him feel good that we went out there and got a win."
Penn State (8-2) at Ohio State (6-4) Nov. 19, 3:30, ESPN/ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … Last week was about getting from Point A to Point B for Penn State. The Nebraska game was played – over the objection of some – and life tried to go on as normal for the school rocked by scandal, but there was nothing easy about the loss to the Huskers.
On the field, Penn State struggled offensively, but it’s struggled to move the ball all season long. Defensively, everything was fine, doing enough to keep the team in the game, but it wasn’t enough to close out the home slate with a victory. As strange and as subdued as the game was, the team is about to experience the exact opposite atmosphere; life is about to become far, far more difficult for the Nittany Lions in every way possible.
Now the team has to get out of the protective bubble of Happy Valley and travel to two of the Big Ten’s most hostile road test over the next two weeks - going to Madison after this trip to Columbus – for what could be two ugly battles on and off the field. On it, this game doesn’t matter too much unless Wisconsin loses to Illinois. If the Nittany Lions beat the Buckeyes and Wisconsin gags against the Illini, then despite all the turmoil, they’ll have won the Leaders division and will be off to play in the inaugural Big Ten championship. If the Badgers win, then this game doesn’t mean anything to Penn State; next week will be for the division championship no matter what.
Ohio State is still alive for the Big Ten title, needing to beat Penn State and Michigan and needing Wisconsin to lose to Illinois. If the Badgers beat the Illini, Ohio State is out no matter what. Even so, finishing strong would put a cap on a decent year for Luke Fickell, who under tough circumstances still might be able to carve out an 8-4 record. If he and the Buckeyes beat Penn State and Michigan, the stunning overtime loss last week to Purdue will be quickly forgotten.
Ohio State won last year in a 38-14 win for the fourth victory in the last five games in the series, but Penn State won the last game in Columbus, winning 13-6 in 2008.
Why Penn State Might Win: In a strange sort of way, being on the road might end up helping. The hostility and the anger sure to come down is expected, and more than ever, an us-against-the-world attitude should form and it’s possible that the team plays more focused now that it’s away from all the madness. Penn State has always been tight when it comes to player access and how the football side of things are run, and the wagons have been circled more than ever this week with a virtual gag order placed on the players and the coaching staff not saying a thing about any aspect of the controversy.
On the field, Penn State’s defense should be able to stuff the Ohio State offense cold. The defensive front has been great at getting into the backfield and the run defense has yet to allow more than 200 yards. The secondary had problems against Northwestern, but it’s been a rock against everyone else, failing to allow more than one touchdown pass in any game this year while giving up six scoring passes and picking off 14 throws. Ohio State’s offense has the worst passing attack in the Big Ten and is 118th in the nation; it’s not going to come up with more than 100 yards and the pressure in the backfield will be intense. If the Buckeye offensive line doesn’t come up with its best game of the year, Penn State’s defense won’t give up a thing.
Why Ohio State Might Win: The lack of a passing game was a killer for Penn State last week, failing to move the ball in the final moments when the game was there for the taking. The 209 yards against the Huskers was the most cranked out by the Nittany Lions in more than a month, but when it had to keep the chains moving, it couldn’t. Points are hard to come by for a Nittany Lion offense averaging 21 points per game, and while Ohio State’s passing game might be struggling, Penn State’s is the least efficient in the Big Ten.
The Buckeye secondary has been terrific against everyone but Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson late in the classic win a few weeks ago, allowing just 122 yards per game while not giving up too many big plays down the field. There were breakdowns against the Badgers and last week against Purdue, but Penn State doesn’t have the gamebreakers to throw any sort of a scare at the OSU corners.
This is just the fourth road game of the year for the Nittany Lions. The first one was like a home date against Temple, and the other two at Indiana and Northwestern were hardly in tough houses. This is a whole new world for Penn State football in so many ways, and now it’ll have to deal with the emotion of Ohio State’s Senior Day. The Buckeyes are 9-1 in their last ten final home dates of the year.
What To Watch Out For: Ohio State defensive tackle John Simon has been on a tear over the last month. He dominated against Illinois with tem tackles and four plays behind the line, and while he didn’t put up big numbers against the Badgers, he was disruptive with two key sacks. While he’s not massive at 6-2 and 270 pounds, he’s strong enough to more than hold his own against the run while being just quick enough and active enough to make things happen on hustle. A weight room star with a non-stop motor, he’s making more and more plays in the backfield with ten tackles for loss and five sacks in the last four games.
The Nittany Lions need Silas Redd again. How could the team’s best player only get 15 carries in the biggest game of the year? It was Senior Day, and Stephon Green got the bulk of the key work with 71 yards and two late scores on 17 carries, but Redd was limited because of a shoulder stinger and only finished with 53 yards on 15 carries. Against the Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions will need both backs to combine for at least 150 yards.
What Will Happen: The first one to score wins? Both offenses are equally anemic, and both defenses are equally strong. Penn State’s defense is a bit better, but Buckeye quarterback Braxton Miller will do just enough to keep the chains moving with his legs, and Dan Herron will be inspired in his final home game, running or 100 hard yards and carrying Ohio State to the win.
CFN Prediction: Ohio State 16 … Penn State 13
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Click For Latest Line From ATS: Ohio State -7 O/U: 39.5
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