2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 12 - Samford at Auburn
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Nov. 19 at Auburn 35 … Samford 16
CFN Analysis: There was nothing in the win to suggest the Tigers can stay with Alabama. The run defense was decent, but Samford’s Jeremiaha Gate ran for 119 yards. The secondary was fine, but it gave up a few key plays to keep the game alive. … Michael Dyer shouldn’t need 30 carries, but he got them on the way to 157 yards and a score. But it was the late dash from Clint Moseley that put the game away – finally. … Fair enough; the Tigers weren’t going to bring the A effort for Samford. However, coming off a blasting from Georgia, it would’ve been nice to have a nice, easy blowout. Instead it was yet another fight in a tough struggle of a season. If the Tigers can come through with a win over Bama, though, it’ll be all anyone remembers.
(AP) AUBURN, Ala. -- Auburn survived a scare from Samford, but reeled off 14 straight points in the fourth quarter to close out a 35-16 win on Saturday.
Clint Moseley, not usually known for his rushing capabilities, took a quarterback keeper 22 yards for the score with 11:28 remaining to give Auburn (7-4) the breathing room it would need in the win.
The Tigers (No. 24 BCS) added a 10-yard touchdown run from Onterio McCalebb with 2:17 to go for the final margin.
Moseley went 13-of-20 passing for 167 yards and a score, and Mike Dyer rushed 30 times for 157 yards and a score for the Tigers.
Dustin Taliaferro went 17-of-32 for 161 yards, with a touchdown and two interceptions for Samford (6-5). Kelsey Pope caught 13 passes for 90 yards and a score, while Jeremiaha Gates posted his first career 100-yard game, rushing 28 times for 119 yards.
Samford coach Pat Sullivan was honored with a ceremony before kickoff to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the 1971 Heisman Trophy he won at Auburn, becoming the school's first Heisman winner.
Samford closed within 21-16 on a 37-yard field goal by Cameron Yaw with 13:22 left to play, set up by a reverse pass from Pope to Gates for 28 yards into Auburn territory.
The Bulldogs had a fourth-and-2 from the Auburn 20-yard line, but opted to go for the Yaw field goal.
The Tigers scored the eventual winning touchdown on a 6-yard Dyer run with 3:25 to go in the third, capping off a 14-play, 70-yard drive in which Auburn handed off to Dyer on the last seven plays and he ran for 51 yards to put the Tigers up 21-13.
Samford had cut the lead to 14-13 with 7:22 left in the third quarter, driving 70 yards in 14 plays -- including 42 on the ground from Gates -- to set up a 28-yard field goal by Yaw, but the Bulldogs could never get the upper hand.
Auburn started off the scoring with a 32-yard strike from Moseley to Philip Lutzenkirchen down the seam, finishing off a nine-play, 55-yard drive and giving the Tigers a 7-0 lead with 7:07 to go in the first quarter.
The Tigers had a chance to add to their lead on the next drive, but Cody Parkey pushed a 32-yard field goal wide left and Samford took over at the 20-yard line.
The Bulldogs drove 80 yards on 10 plays from their -- aided by a late hit penalty on third down that gave them a first-and-goal at the Tigers' 6 -- and Taliaferro found Pope for an 8-yard score to tie the score at 7-7 with 14:27 left in the half.
Auburn answered right back with a 10-play, 60-yard drive -- ending on a 10-yard touchdown run by McCalebb -- to go up 14-7 with 10:03 in the half, but Samford closed within 14-10 with a 40-yard field goal by Yaw 2:32 before the break, a lead the Tigers took into halftime.
Auburn's offense put up 219 yards in the first half -- 131 passing 88 rushing -- but suffered from two costly lost fumbles around midfield, the second of which set up the Bulldogs' field-goal drive.
Samford (6-4) at Auburn (6-4) Nov. 19, 1:00
Here’s The Deal … Former Tiger Heisman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan returns to Auburn for the first time as a head coach leading a Samford team that’s been very competitive at the FCS level so far this year. The Bulldogs had a very nice road win earlier this year at Furman, but this is their first matchup of 2011 against an FBS opponent. Samford will not qualify for the FCS playoffs, so this will be the last game of the year for the Bulldogs, and they will be amped up to prove themselves against an SEC opponent.
Auburn has been an enigma this year, picking up a huge road win over South Carolina when the Gamecocks were still good, and the Tigers also completely shut down Florida in the win over the Gators. But, for all the triumphs there have been tribulations to follow. Auburn followed the big win over South Carolina with a big defeat at the hands of Arkansas, and they followed the Florida victory with a mauling delivered by the LSU Tigers.
With two weeks off to prepare for their big rivalry game against Georgia the Tigers came out flat and could not get anything going in Athens, falling to the Bulldogs 45-7 last week. Auburn will be looking ahead to the huge showdown in the Iron Bowl next week, but the Tigers need to make sure they do not overlook Samford and let the Bulldogs hang around longer than expected.
Why Samford Might Win: Samford has a good football team this year, but this is a major step up in competition. For the Bulldogs to have any chance to pull off the epic upset, they will need to disrupt the Auburn offense throughout the contest. The Auburn passing game is atrocious, ranking 107th in the country, and Samford has done an outstanding job this year at defending the pass, ranking 16th in the FCS allowing only 172.60 yards per game.
The undersized Bulldogs will have to load up the line of scrimmage to stop Michael Dyer, and if they can force Auburn to throw the ball then they have a puncher’s chance at leaving Jordan-Hare with the victory.
Why Auburn Might Win: Across the board Auburn is the more talented team. Dyer is one of the best running backs in the nation, and Samford has had a difficult time stopping the run this year, as the Bulldogs allow 188.10 yards per game rushing. The Tigers might not have to throw the ball the entire game, and they could still win easily. Auburn will want to work on its passing game before facing the Tide next week, but the Tigers will need to be careful not to turn the ball over and give Samford any sort of momentum. Auburn has never lost to Samford in 26 meetings, and the Tigers will be looking to rebound after the disaster in Athens a week ago.
What To Watch Out For: Samford K Cameron Yaw & Auburn LB Eltoro Freeman. Yaw is one of the best kickers in the FCS, and he is tied for the national lead in field goals made with 20 already this season. If the Bulldogs have trouble getting in the endzone then they have the utmost confidence in Yaw to put three points on the board. If Auburn somehow sleepwalks through this game then Yaw could be the special teams difference that helps Samford make this interesting.
For Auburn, Freeman has been on an absolute tear lately. Last week against Georgia, he had eight tackles, including two for loss, and he also forced a fumble. The game before against Ole Miss he had 11 tackles, including two for loss which were both sacks, and he had another forced fumble. If he can make big plays in the backfield and force a turnover or two, then Auburn will have no trouble putting this game away early.
What Will Happen: Sullivan will have his squad prepared to put on a good showing on the Plains, but Samford just does not have enough talent to be able to compete with Auburn for four quarters. The Tigers will come out sluggish, and the game may be close for a half, but Dyer will wear down the Bulldogs defense, and Auburn will pull away in the second half.
CFN Prediction: Auburn 38 … Samford 10
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