2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 12 - GSU at Alabama
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Nov. 19 at Alabama 45 … Georgia Southern 21
CFN Analysis: Obviously it was a letdown game, and yes, the Georgia Southern triple option attack is the most dangerous in the FCS, but still, if you want to convince the world that you deserve to play a rematch for the national title, you don’t give up 302 rushing yards to a lower-level team. … Trent Richardson had to work WAY too hard for his 175 yards and two scores on 32 carries. … AJ McCarron was taking target practice, completing14-of-19 passes for 190 yards and three scores. The line gave him time to work and he came through with a nice game. … The Tide can probably end up in the national championship with a win over Auburn no matter how it looks, but an impressive performance would be a big plus.
(AP) TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- Trent Richardson rushed for 175 yards and scored three touchdowns to power No. 3 Alabama to a 45-21 victory over Georgia Southern on Saturday.
The Crimson Tide (10-1) didn't win many style points in giving up a season-high 21 points, but the team's biggest national title boost came the previous night when No. 2 Oklahoma State fell 37-31 to Iowa State in two overtimes.
Alabama needed Richardson more than expected against the FCS Eagles (9-2). The Heisman Trophy candidate ran 32 times, caught a 4-yard touchdown pass and broke Shaun Alexander's school single-season mark of 19 rushing touchdowns.
He was still running well into the fourth quarter in a game that was expected to be a low-stress tuneup for the Iron Bowl at Auburn.
Georgia Southern's triple option attack burned the nation's top defense for 302 rushing yards.
Georgia Southern (9-1) at Alabama (9-1) Nov. 19, 2:00, GamePlan/ESPN3
Here’s The Deal … If it’s possible in any way to make an Alabama November game against an FCS team interesting, bringing Georgia Southern to town is it.
Call this a focus game for an Alabama team that can’t afford a slip-up in any way. In a beauty contest, the Tide has to obliterate Auburn next week and GSU this week, but it might have to work a bit to do it.
No, the Eagles aren’t going to beat the Tide, and yes, Alabama’s focus will be mostly on getting out alive and unhurt so it can get to the Auburn hoopla, but this is a chance to see strength vs. strength, and as good as the Bama defense might be, the last thing a coaching staff wants to deal with at this point in the season is something quirky.
Georgia Southern runs a triple-option that’s second in the FCS in rushing, averaging 320 yards per game, and it would No. 1 but it can throw the ball a little bit, unlike Wofford who only throws when it desperately has to. Last week, the two mighty FCS ground games clashed, and a GSU ran for 290 yards and three touchdowns, to Wofford’s 192 yards and a score, on the way to a dominant 31-10 win and a terrific 9-1 record. In other words, Alabama’s defense might have to try.
However, the Tide run defense is the best in the big league and it’ll get a workout against the high-powered attack. It’ll be an entertaining exercise in coaching and strategy, but if the triple-option doesn’t work, it really doesn’t work and it’ll be a quick and painless blowout.
Why Georgia Southern Might Win: Jaybo Shaw is a veteran, smart quarterback who knows how to run this offense flawlessly. The former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket isn’t just a runner, only taking off for 288 yards, but he’s all but automatic from close range with ten touchdowns including three against Wofford last week. He’s an efficient, effective passer and a great conductor for the attack, doing a great job of making the decisions needed to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. He has been around long enough to not be freaked out by the surroundings, and he’s good enough to keep the mistakes to a minimum.
The veteran defense is good enough to potentially give the Tide a few problems. The pass rush is good, run defense is better, and the secondary has allowed 11 touchdown passes and picked off 13 passes. Obviously it’s a massive bump up in talent level this week, but if GSU can run the option effectively, and if the punting game can continue to produce like it has throughout the year, the defense should be off the field enough to be rested.
Why Alabama Might Win: What stops the option? Fast, athletic defensive fronts and the Tide has the perfect defense to stop the attack cold. The front three isn’t going to allow the Eagles to establish the fullback up the middle, while the linebackers are too disciplined and too good to let the ground game work well wide. It’s easier said than done when it comes to figuring out how to stop the machine, but Alabama has the talent to execute it.
Georgia Southern’s defensive front is good against the run, but it hasn’t been powered on much this year. The Eagles have yet to play an FBS team, and it’s going from 0-to-60 playing a national championship-level team that’s not going to do anything crazy. The O line will pound away with the running game, AJ McCarron won’t get touched and should have plenty of short to midrange passing opportunities, and it shouldn’t have any problems moving the ball without doing anything crazy.
What To Watch Out For: Welcome to the Eddie Lacy game. Yes, Georgia Southern is good, and yes, the Tide coaching staff will take this seriously, but the second Trent Richardson can come out and rest up for Auburn, he will. Nick Saban isn’t going to run No. 3 25 times if he doesn’t have to. Lacy is the next great Bama back, and he’s more of a gamebreaker averaging close to eight yards per carry with seven touchdowns, including two dashes last week against Mississippi State from two and 32 yards out. He hasn’t proved to be a workhorse yet, but he should get more than 15 carries and he should come up with a few big runs to help put the game away early.
What Will Happen: The Alabama run defense allowed 51.9 yards per game and has given up just five touchdowns all year. Georgia Southern will get stopped cold and the offense won’t work a lick against a defensive front that can stay at home, win the individual battles, and let the secondary take care of the rest. In the history of great option offenses vs. great run defenses, the defense usually prevails.
CFN Prediction: Alabama 38 … Georgia Southern 0
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