2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 13 - Purdue at Indiana
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Nov. 26 Purdue 33 … at Indiana 25
CFN Analysis: COMING
(AP) BLOOMINGTON, Ind. -- Purdue reclaimed the Old Oaken Bucket with a milestone achievement Saturday.
The Boilermakers are bowl eligible, but must wait to learn their fate.
Ralph Bolden and Antavian Edison each ran for touchdowns, Caleb TerBush threw for another and Cameron Wiggs made three field goals, leading the Boilermakers past archrival Indiana 33-25 and possibly into the postseason.
It's the first time since 2007, and the first time under coach Danny Hope, that Purdue has been bowl-eligible. But at 6-6 (4-4 Big Ten), Purdue is the 10th conference school to reach the mandatory six wins to become eligible for a bowl game. The problem: The Big Ten has only eight bowl tie-ins, so the Boilermakers are not guaranteed another game.
The big win was tarnished by an apparent injury to Bolden's right knee; also the same knee in which he sustained a season-ending torn ACL last season. Bolden rushed 14 times for 54 yards and scored on an 8-yard TD run. He also caught four passes for 63 yards but did not finish the game.
Purdue officials did not have an immediate update on Bolden's condition.
TerBush, who started and finished the game despite being replaced a couple of times by Robert Marve, was 16 of 25 for 192 yards with one TD and no interceptions.
The Hoosiers (1-11, 0-8) completed their first season under coach Kevin Wilson with nine straight losses. Indiana is the only BCS-conference team to go winless against Football Bowl Subdivision foes this season.
Freshman quarterback Tre Roberson was 17 of 26 for 147 yards with one interception, which was a controversial play that the officials decided to review before announcing that a dual-possession play was not reviewable.
Stephen Houston rushed seven times for 129 yards and one score, and D'Angelo Roberts scored on two of his four carries.
It looked like it would be a wild shootout early.
Houston opened the scoring when he found a hole in the middle of the line and sprinted 52 yards to give Indiana a 7-0 lead.
Purdue answered with a 14-yard TD pass from TerBush to Edison to make it 7-7.
Roberts followed that with a 6-yard TD run up the middle to give Indiana a 14-7 lead with 1:05 left in the first quarter, and after Indiana made it 17-10, Purdue flipped the game.
Raheem Mostert took a short kickoff, found a hole in the middle of the field, cut left and zigzagged his way to Indiana's 8-yard line. On the next play, Bolden converted the 81-yard kickoff return into a score with an 8-yard TD run to tie the game at 17.
The Hoosiers didn't get back into Purdue territory the rest of the half, while Wiggs made field goals of 43 and 48 yards to give the Boilermakers a 23-17 lead at the half.
The two defenses dominated the second half.
For the first time in 29 quarters, Indiana held an opponent scoreless for an entire quarter.
But Wiggs made a 22-yard field goal early in the fourth and Edison scored on a 5-yard run with 11:04 left to give Purdue a 33-17 lead.
Indiana closed to 33-25 on Roberts' 5-yard TD run and a two-point conversion with 8:22 left, and the Hoosiers appeared to be in position to tie it until Josh Johnson stole the ball away from Nick Stoner with 4:11 to go. The Hoosiers didn't get the ball back.
Akeem Hunt ran 10 times for 100 yards for the Boilermakers.
Purdue (5-6) at Indiana (1-10) Nov. 26, 3:30, BTN
Here’s The Deal … It’s not like Indiana-Purdue registers on the national map in any way as a top rivalry game, but the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket matters this year. The Boilermakers need the win to become bowl eligible, while Indiana needs the win to give the 2011 season something positive. Beating the rival and screwing up its year would be a big deal and could do wonders for a young team building under first-year head coach Kevin Wilson.
The Purdue season turned around with the overtime win over Ohio State, but the three losses in the last four games haven’t been pretty. The Wisconsin loss was an embarrassment, while getting blown away by Michigan was hardly a plus. But for all the problems and all the inconsistencies, a win over IU and the program’s fist bowl appearance since 2007 would be a very, very big deal for head coach Danny Hope, while a second straight loss in the series would be a disaster. Hope needs to prove the program is moving forward, and rivalry game or not, there’s no excuse to lose to a Hoosier team that might be the worst of any in the BCS conferences.
It’s not like IU hasn’t been competitive at times, giving Ohio State a push and putting up some nice offensive numbers here and there, but a 55-3 loss to Michigan State last weekend was an ugly down moment in a year of ugly down moments. The Hoosiers haven’t come within double digits of a win over the last six games and they haven’t beaten an FBS team this season. Again, through, a win might serve as a jumping off point for the program.
Why Purdue Might Win: The Boilermakers are going to start running and they’re going to try not to stop. They aren’t exactly Wisconsin when it comes to pounding the ball, but they have just enough talent in the backfield to have a breakout game. Indiana’s run defense has gone from bad to worse giving up 300 yards or more on the ground in four of five games before Michigan State went through the motions in the blowout win. Three Ohio State runners hit the 100-yard mark, and Michigan State emptied the bench and got production after Le’Veon Bell averaged 7.6 yards per carry on the way to a 34-3 halftime lead.
Indiana’s passing game has improved since Tre Roberson took over, but it’s still among the most inefficient in America. Purdue has a bigger problem with good running teams and aren’t too bad against teams that can throw, and IU isn’t consistent in either phase. Purdue isn’t going to give up too many big pass plays, if any, and it’s going to take a few long, sustained drives for the Hoosiers to score. That’s a problem for this team. However …
Why Indiana Might Win: The offense has improved by leaps and bounds over the second half of the season and it’s been better than the overall stats. The Michigan State game might have been an aberration; that was a jacked up Spartan team out to clinch the Legends. Before the blowout, the IU offense ran well against Iowa and Northwestern and showed a little bit of firepower. The O hasn’t done enough to make up for the problems on D, but it’s shown enough to potentially give the Purdue defensive front a hard time. There’s speed in the Hoosier backfield, but the playmakers need room to move.
It’s not like Purdue’s offense is blowing up. It has a decent ground game, and the passing attack does enough to get by, but it’s not an efficient offense and it’s not the type of attack that can blow up for 40 points. Purdue hasn’t scored more than 26 points in six games, and the only reason it got over 21 points was because of overtime against Ohio State. The Boilermakers aren’t likely to put up a big enough score that should put IU away.
What To Watch Out For: It’s Ralph Bolden’s game. The Purdue junior hasn’t hit the 100-yard mark since the opener against Middle Tennessee, and he’s hardly a workhorse, but the offense will gear around the running game and Bolden has been the team’s most effective weapon. He only as 620 yards on the season and five scores, but he ran for a touchdown in each of the last two games and came up with two of his better performances against OSU and Iowa. If hits 100 yards, Purdue shouldn’t have a problem coming up with the win.
Tre Roberson is still going through a true freshman season trying to figure out what he’s doing, and last week against MSU he looked like a rookie. He was accurate and dangerous after taking over the job halfway through the season, and he became the team’s second-best runner helped by a 121-yard day against Northwestern. Against Purdue, it’ll be his job to go out and ball. The offense is his, and with little to no pressure on, all he has to do is try to make plays.
What Will Happen: It’ll be entertaining. Indiana’s offense will work, and it’ll force Purdue to open things up a bit. The Boilermaker defense will be the difference, coming through with a couple of key second half stops the Hoosier D won’t. Expect a lot of yards, a lot of points, and a good fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Purdue 38 … Indiana 30
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Click For Latest Line From ATS: Purdue -7.5 O/U: 56
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