CFN Analysis
Week 12 Thoughts, Nov. 21
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-
Cirminiello & Johnson: RGIII's
Heisman Day
- Mitchell: So what's going to
happen next?
- Harrison: Montee Ball & the
Heisman
- Zemek: College football
needs a flex system
- Sallee: Arkansas, welcome
back to the fun
By Russ Mitchell
Stanford may be out of the running for the BCS Championship, but it still takes a Stanford grad to figure out all of the different possibilities. So quickly, before my head explodes, let’s jump right into this…
1. The most likely scenario – LSU beats Arkansas and either beats or loses to UGA, and Alabama beats Auburn. LSU is 11-0, with road wins against No. 2 Alabama and two teams that will likely win their respective conferences (Oregon and WVU). They’re playing at home, and have allowed only four touchdowns in seven SEC games, and most of those after the game was long over. The most points they've allowed to an SEC school are 11, to Florida - a game the Tigers won 41-11. Oh, and Mr. Joe Adams, the Tigers have only allowed seven punt return yards all season - ridiculous. Arkansas has looked anything but stellar on the road, has the nation's 70th best run defense, and its best win of the year is either SC without Marcus Lattimore and Stephen Garcia or an Auburn team that has surrendered 166 points in its four loses...both at home. If LSU beats Arkansas, the SEC Championship is largely meaningless – in the above scenario, LSU will still play Alabama in the BCS Championship regardless. As for Bama and the Iron Bowl, we realize it’s a rivalry game, but see the above sentence about the number of points this Auburn teams has surrendered in its losses to decent opponents. By 2011 standards, this scenario is about as clean as it gets – however, since "clean" and "2011" don’t seem able to play well together…
2. Arkansas beats LSU and Alabama beats Auburn. Here’s where it gets interesting … IF Arkansas wins in a close game, there’s a chance – brace yourself – that nothing changes. Either literally or figuratively. LSU is ranked 1.000 in the BCS standings right now, and given its schedule and Arkansas’ September slate, there’s a chance that enough voters (who control 66% of this recipe) won’t lower the Tigers far enough to fall past No. 2 – or even at all. Even if Bama squeaks past LSU and the Tigers end up at No. 2 in the BCS, they’ll still play in the SEC Championship game by virtue of beating Alabama head-to-head.
However, IF LSU loses to Arkansas is convincing fashion, voters might consider that victory IN DEATH VALLEY, against the undefeated, consensus No. 1 team, to be the best win of the entire 2011 season. If so, that might be enough for many voters to move the No. 3 Hogs up two places to No. 1 – given LSU, Bama and Arkansas will all have the same record. (Stop it, Bama; yes, you beat them convincingly, but that was in Tuscaloosa and it wasn't the consensus No. 1 team at the time. Some might consider this the bigger deal.)
Now it becomes even MORE interesting… saddle up. Would the voters move LSU below Bama? If they do, Bama represents the West against UGA in the SECCG; if not, Arkansas does. Either way, whoever is sitting at No. 3 in this scenario is odd team out and not playing in the BCS Championship, unless UGA beats either Bama or Arkansas – in which case the BCS championship would be LSU vs. whichever team didn’t lose to UGA.
Wow.
3. LSU beats Arkansas and Auburn beats Alabama. With Oklahoma State’s loss coming in double OT on the road, they’d be sitting pretty in this scenario – but only if the Cowboys beat Oklahoma in the Bedlam Series. While the Sooners have dominated the series, holding an 82-16-7 edge and the last eight straight, this year’s contest is in Stillwater, OSU has the bye week, and many believe the ‘Pokes are playing better football. The computers love the Cowboys - even after their loss to Iowa State, most still have OSU ranked No. 2. IF the Sooners win, it's likely still curtains for them. Their No. 9 BCS ranking and no chance to improve with a conference championship game would probably eliminate them from a BCS title shot in this scenario. Even with a win, Oklahoma would likely still need Virginia Tech and Stanford to lose.
4. LSU beats Arkansas, Auburn beats Alabama and Oklahoma beats OSU. Enter Sandman. Va Tech’s best win on the season is Georgia Tech, and next to Stanford the Hokies might have the ugliest home loss of the season for a contender. But if the above scenario happens, and VT can take care of business with Virginia and beat a Clemson squad not firing anywhere close to all cylinders, AND the voters don’t shudder at this thought and move VT down, than the Hokies will be traveling to New Orleans to play the Tigers. A sobering thought, given many have VT’s strength of schedule somewhere mid-table between WVU and Wake Forest.
5. LSU beats Arkansas, Auburn beats Alabama, Oklahoma beats OSU and Virginia Tech loses. Given this past weekend, we’re not ruling out anything. Stanford has one quality win (USC), a simply disastrous home loss, and are no darling of the computers…yet their strength of schedule is remarkably high given who they’ve played, and unless the voters get cold feet, it would still be the Cardinal and Andrew Luck strutting in the Big Easy.
After this it’s just a crap shoot – and anyone’s guess. If Stanford loses to Notre Dame, would the voters look past Boise State’s schedule and razor thin loss to TCU and punch their ticket? What about a potentially undefeated Houston team, or the “victorious” Oklahoma Sooners? Or given how far we’re now down, perhaps even Arkansas or Bama?
Whatever happens, don’t blink.
-
Cirminiello & Johnson: RGIII's
Heisman Day
- Mitchell: So what's going to
happen next?
- Harrison: Montee Ball & the
Heisman
- Zemek: College football
needs a flex system
- Sallee: Arkansas, welcome
back to the fun