2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 13 - C-USA Part 2
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Conference USA Game Previews Part 1
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Memphis (2-9) at Southern Miss (9-2) Nov. 26, 4:00, CSS
Here’s The Deal … Southern Miss is no longer ranked. It is, however, still in control of its destiny in the East Division of Conference USA. The Golden Eagles suffered through a head-scratcher last Thursday, losing to 3-8 UAB to snap an eight-game winning streak. While it was a tough outcome to digest, considering the divergent paths of the two schools in 2011, little has changed for USM. It’ll still represent the division in the league title game next week with a victory on Saturday.
Memphis has shown signs of life toward the tail end of the year, lending future hope to the program and second-year head coach Larry Porter. In the last four games, the Tigers have defeated Tulane, and came close to knocking off UAB and Marshall in consecutive weeks. They’re gradually beginning to build a foundation around a slew of young players who earned letters this season.
Why Memphis Might Win: Although the aggregate numbers are weak, the Tigers offense has been trending upward over the past month. True freshman QB Taylor Reed has started to play like a sophomore as the season has unfolded, forming a bond with Tannar Rehrer and Kevin Wright. And versatile RB Billy Foster is a playmaker, taking handoffs and catching passes out of the backfield. Memphis will continue the maturation process against a Southern Miss defense that’s coming off its worst three-game stretch of the year. In Birmingham a week ago, the Eagles yielded four touchdowns and more than 400 yards.
Why Southern Miss Might Win: Can Memphis’ 116th-ranked defense slow down the Golden Eagles’ offense? It’s a longshot. The Tigers haven’t put up the stop sign on a balanced offense all year, giving up 25 touchdown passes on the season. Southern Miss is second only to high-octane Houston in Conference USA scoring and total offense, striking up a chord of balance throughout the year. USM can keep the chains moving in myriad ways, working the airways with veteran QB Austin Davis, and pounding the ball between tackles with a swath of complimentary backs. The ground game is as healthy as it’s been since September, getting 180 yards combined from Jamal Woodyard and Desmond Johnson last week alone.
What To Watch Out For: If Memphis is going to succeed offensively, it’ll need to keep Reed from scrambling all afternoon, which is no small chore. Southern Miss has shown some of its old Nasty Bunch tendencies in 2011, ranking 13th nationally in tackles for loss. The Golden Eagles can collapse the pocket from a multitude of different angles, DE Cordarro Law coming off the edge, and linebackers Jamie Collins and Ronnie Thornton attacking on the blitz. They’ve got speed and the talent at cornerback to afford the defensive staff a number of different options on how best to defend the Tigers.
What Will Happen: The Golden Eagles got their wake-up call a week ago. They will not be hitting the snooze button this weekend. Southern Miss is no fraud, despite falling to a bad UAB team last Thursday night. It’ll recapture the form it had during the eight-game winning streak by getting ample contributions from the offense, defense and special teams. USM, which has had a habit of generating non-offensive scores this fall, will get at least one touchdown the non-traditional way, helping fuel a division-sealing rout.
CFN Prediction: Southern Miss 45 … Memphis 14
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Southern Miss -35.5 O/U: 56
UAB (3-8) at Florida Atlantic (0-10) Nov. 26, 4:00
Here’s The Deal … Florida Atlantic is down to its final two chances to avoid becoming this year’s lone winless squad. Not only have the Owls yet to taste victory in 2011, but they’ve only truly been close once, falling by three points to a good Louisiana-Lafayette team on Oct. 1. The team would love nothing more than to send retiring head coach Howard Schnellenberger, the architect of this program, out to pasture on a high note.
While UAB has certainly been a disappointment this fall, the players and staff deserve credit for battling right to the finish line. After stumbling out of the gate with six straight losses, the Blazers have battled through injuries to key players to win three of the last five games. Last Thursday’s shocking upset of soaring Southern Miss, which entered the game on an eight-game winning streak, was evidence that the kids are still scrapping for embattled fifth-year head coach Neil Callaway.
Why UAB Might Win: How about that offense, which is thriving despite the loss of QB Bryan Ellis to injury? The Blazers have scored 75 points over the last two weeks, getting solid play behind center from replacement Jonathan Perry. Flashing dual-threat abilities, the sophomore is beginning to perform as if he plans on winning the job early next spring. His effort has begun to make the skill players more potent as well. Greg Franklin has rushed for more than 200 yards over the last three games, and receivers Jackie Williams and Jamarcus Nelson have begun to make more plays downfield in the passing game. It shouldn’t take much for UAB to outscore Florida Atlantic, the nation’s feeblest offense at 242 yards and 11 points a game.
Why Florida Atlantic Might Win: Is this the week that the Owls offense finally sheds the toe tag? It could be. Yes, the unit has been brutal in all but a single game, but the UAB defense has had a habit of bringing out the best in the other team’s attack. The Blazers rank 118th nationally, while allowing 37 points a game. Sacks? They have eight on the year, and just two in the last five games. Since Florida Atlantic has no faith in the passing attack, it’ll once again attempt to ride the wide shoulders of Alfred Morris. The senior back is on the verge of his first 1,000-yard season, rushing for at least 100 yards in five of the last six games.
What To Watch Out For: With Morris likely to get a steady diet of carries, it’ll be a busy afternoon for the UAB linebackers. It’s a good thing for the visitors that they’re relatively strong on the second level. Marvin Burdette is the leading man, but he’s getting plenty of help from Lamanski Ware and Greg Irvin. All three are quick to the ball, and have the range to make stops all over the field. Since the skittish Florida Atlantic passing game is little threat, the linebackers won’t have any issues cheating up in order to stunt the progress of No. 32.
What Will Happen: UAB has built a head of steam that it would like to carry into the offseason. It’s won two straight, and a third in-a-row might actually provide a boost to the 2012 edition. The Blazers have found an identity around Perry, the new sparkplug of the offense. With the quarterback in a rhythm, he’ll once again unlock the potential of the team’s skill position players. Once the visitors begin to roll on the scoreboard, Florida Atlantic will be powerless to mount a comeback, and lock down that maiden victory.
CFN Prediction: UAB 36 … Florida Atlantic 17
- Click For Latest Line From ATS:
UAB -6.5 O/U: 50
Tulane (2-10) at Hawaii (5-6) Nov. 26, 11:00
Here’s The Deal … Hawaii’s need for two more victories in order to become bowl-eligible took a backseat this week when allegations of point-shaving by the football team surfaced. While it’s too early to speculate where this rumor and investigation might head, it’ll undoubtedly be a distraction by the time kickoff rolls around. The Warriors will need every ounce of focus they can harness in order to put the brakes on a three-game losing streak that’s derailed a once-promising campaign.
For Tulane, this trek to the islands is essentially a bowl game for a team that’s eight games below .500. It’ll be an opportunity to blow off some steam and bask in the sun following another harrowing campaign that cost Bob Toledo his head coaching job. The program lost out on Rich Rodriguez as a possible permanent successor, when the free agent opted instead to lead Arizona in 2012.
Why Tulane Might Win: Not only is Hawaii playing poorly these days, but the off-field distractions will dominate the pre-game buzz on the field and in the stands. The Warriors have slipped considerably on defense, failing to stop the pass or the run. Oh, and injured QB Bryant Moniz is no longer available to bail the D out. The Green Wave will look capitalize with its one-two punch of RB Orleans Darkwa and QB Ryan Griffin. Darkwa is a career day away from eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark, and will benefit from skating on a fast surface. Griffin is a capable hurler, who’s helping with the maturation of young receivers Xavier Rush and Justyn Shackelford.
Why Hawaii Might Win: Moniz is gone, but the Warriors ability to reach the end zone has not, especially versus a Tulane program that ranks last in Conference USA in points allowed. Sophomore David Graves will get his first career start behind center, and will play with something to prove. His ground troops will be no help, so he’ll waste no time going up top, looking for one of his three receivers with at least four touchdown catches, Royce Pollard, Billy Ray Stutzmann or Jeremiah Ostrowski. While you don’t get better losing a veteran like Moniz, the holdovers have been in the system long enough to get the offense cranking.
What To Watch Out For: Darkwa’s biggest hurdle to success will be avoiding the pursuit of the Hawaii linebackers, Aaron Brown, Corey Paredes and Art Laurel. The trio has done a nice job this season of cleaning up messes, and making their presence felt in opposing backfields. While not the biggest collection of linebackers in the WAC, they’re instinctive, with the hot motors to be a real nuisance for the opposing team’s quarterback and running backs.
What Will Happen: Yeah, Moniz has been missed, but with an eager beaver now barking out signals, there’s no chance that the Hawaii offense will lack bounce in its step. Graves has had a week to prepare, which is enough time to devise a scheme for beating the Tulane defense. He’ll make his first statement toward winning the job on a permanent basis, throwing three touchdown passes to three different receivers. The Warriors will be dealing with a distraction, but so will the Green Wave. It’s a rudderless ship with nothing to play for, and the Hawaiian backdrop soothing its senses.
CFN Prediction: Hawaii 35 … Tulane 17
- Click For Latest Line From ATS:
Hawaii -18 O/U: 55
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