2011 Prediction & Game Story
Week 14 - Mountain West Previews
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Wyoming 22 … at Colorado State 19
(AP) FORT COLLINS, Colo. -- Brett Smith threw for two touchdowns to lead Wyoming past mistake-prone Colorado State 22-19 on Saturday.
Josh Doctson caught three passes for 129 yards and two touchdowns for Wyoming (8-4, 5-2 Mountain West) in the 102nd meeting of the Border War. The bowl-eligible Cowboys trail 54-43-5.
The fate of Colorado State coach Steve Fairchild rests in the hands of newly named athletic director Jack Graham. Fairchild has coached the Rams (3-9, 1-6) to three straight 3-9 finishes.
Graham said he had made no decision about Fairchild, with whom he plans to meet Sunday. The Rams ended the season on an eight-game losing streak.
Wyoming's Smith threw for 191 yards and ran for 90 more.
Colorado State's Raymond Carter ran for a career-best 158 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Garrett Grayson rushed for 91 yards and was 15-for-25 for 143 yards with three interceptions.
Wyoming (7-4) at Colorado State (3-8)
Sat, Dec 3, 2:00pm ET, The Mtn.
Here’s The Deal … Border War, it can heal the victor and wound the defeated. Wyoming can use a pick me up going into bowl contention considering the MWC has a finite number of spots. If nothing else a win can lead to placement in a better bowl, a loss could potentially make it challenging to find a bowl at all. Following the emotional defeat against Boise last week, the Cowboys could use any confidence boost they can get, and a solid win over life rival CSU would do just nicely.
For CSU, this is something of a make or break game for head coach Steve Fairchild. Nothing has been announced, but after a strong initial season in 2008, the Rams haven’t been back to a bowl and his tenure is hanging by a thread. The CSU faithful have had to watch another three win season while rival Wyoming has had an unexpected renaissance.
The injury gods have not been kind to CSU over Fairchild’s tenure, and while the quantity of injured in 2011 has not been as much an issue, the quality has with QB Pete Thomas down with a bum knee the last two games and is questionable before this one.
Why Colorado State might win: Although lacking in consistent quality execution, the CSU offense has been pretty good, when it hasn’t been pretty bad at least. Backhanded as that praise may be, the CSU 62nd national run game, shouldered upon RB Chris Nwoke, should match well against the Wyoming 114th national run defense, which is a shell of its traditional self this 2011. The occasional breakout play is what CSU is good at getting and Wyoming is bad at giving so it stands to reason that the right play call at the right time can break this game open.
If Thomas is still down that run game setting up as many easy third downs as possible, or even better, not needing 3rd downs as much, is probably a necessity. Garrett Grayson had to burn his redshirt and although he scrambles well, his completion percent is only just above 50 and he has thrown three interceptions to two touchdowns. In short yardage he has his legs to boost his confidence, so that is just one more reason why the CSU offense needs strong run production. Part of the traditional CSU playbook is to take long shots downfield and when that time comes if the run hasn’t soaked up the safeties the long ball is going to be that much harder to connect, but again, Wyoming allows more rushing yards than CSU usually gains so this may work out well for CSU.
Why Wyoming might win: By some weird twist of fate which can only logically, rationally, be explained as the result of head coach Dave Christensen making a pact with a hermetic Cheyenne shaman the Wyoming offense has started to work in 2011, and the Wyoming defense stopped working; some sort of Yin Yang tradeoff no doubt. The result is a much better record and a very probable bowl season.
CSU is no bowl team this year, Wyoming has the 50th total offense, CSU the 85th total defense, and while Wyoming has the 100th total defense, CSU has the 91st total offense. The statistical advantage goes to Wyoming. CSU might run effectively, however Wyoming certainly will, Wyoming has the nation’s 35th rush offense to smash into CSU’s 116th rush defense, and Wyoming has the more reliable pass threat available too if Thomas continues to sit out.
What To Watch Out For: The defenses, although they really are not great this year for either team, both Wyoming and CSU have a strong hard-nosed defensive tradition that should be expected to emerge better late than never in this passionate rivalry atmosphere. It would be stranger if they didn’t. On paper, one would expect a shootout, but only once since 2002 has the victor exceeded 40 points and that was last year, when CSU was shut out.
The notion that one defense might underperform is not unrealistic, but that both defenses will be silent? No way. CSU would love to play spoiler and get some revenge for last year and Wyoming has to make some noise to get to a choice bowl. Each is adequately motivated to make this the first complete defensive effort of the season.
What Will Happen: CSU isn’t going to go down easy, the Rams are tough, but the team lacks endurance. Expect the game to be tightly contested in the first half, with the leader, who could be either team, having a total of 17ish points entering the third. Then expect Wyoming to find a groove. The first half will be played almost entirely on the ground, if and when Wyoming gets a lead and CSU has to answer, third and long will become harder and harder to convert. A two score margin by Wyoming will force CSU to try and pass way more than it can convert. That scenario will most likely be the story of the game.
CFN Prediction: Wyoming 34 ... Colorado State 21
- Click For Latest Line From ATS: Wyoming
-5.5 O/U: 50.5
at TCU 56 … UNLV 9
CFN Analysis: COMING
(AP) FORT WORTH, Texas -- Greg McCoy returned a kickoff 99 yards and Kris Gardner had a 16-yard interception return for a touchdown in a 12-second span, and the 18th-ranked TCU Horned Frogs could bust into the BCS again after a 56-9 victory over UNLV in their Mountain West Conference finale Saturday.
TCU (10-2, 7-0 MWC) wrapped up its third consecutive outright Mountain West title, winning its last 24 games in that league before moving to the Big 12 next season.
The consecutive TD returns by McCoy and Gardner just before halftime came about the same time Southern Miss was wrapping up a 49-28 victory at previously undefeated Houston in the Conference USA championship game.
If the Frogs move up two spots into the top 16 of the final Bowl Championship Series standings Sunday, they will be virtually guaranteed to go to their third consecutive BCS game.
UNLV (2-10, 1-6) finished with five consecutive losses.
UNLV (2-9) at TCU (9-2) Dec. 3, 2:30, Versus
Here’s The Deal …It’s TCU’s last game as a member of the Mountain West, and it has already clinched a tie for the conference crown. There's still unfinished business however, as it now has a chance to take the title outright with a win this week. The Horned Frogs will be putting their record 23 game conference winning streak and 16 game home conference winning streak on the line. UNLV on the other hand, is just trying to make it through the finishing kick to a disappointing season but would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler on the road. TCU is coming off of a pasting over Colorado State to run its winning streak to six, while UNLV took it on the chin from San Diego State for its fourth loss in a row.
Why UNLV Might Win: TCU was able to party last week in a conference clincher and is feeling mighty good about itself coming home to play a very weak UNLV squad on paper. With all of the magnitude and variables of playing for an outright title, senior day, and bowl possibilities, the psychological edge could be there for the Rebels to have a shot. This will be their mystical bowl game with a chance to make a dent in the bully of the conference of the last three years. What could be sweeter than knocking TCU down to a share of the league title? Look for UNLV to come out with more emotion and attitude than perhaps the entire season and do everything in its power to keep this game close--trying to pull it out at the end.
Why TCU Might Win: The Horned Frogs are on a serious roll and have talent that far surpasses that on the sideline of the Rebels. Though there’s not one aspect of TCU’s game that will jump out on the stat sheet, the Horned Frogs are solid across the board with a sum of all parts approach that has led to the nation’s tenth ranked scoring offense. Most of the damage is done in the running game, and TCU will be going against a Rebel defense that has been giving up almost 195 yards on average on the ground.
Then there’s the lowly offense of the Rebels. They have only been able to only muster 18 points a game with nary a threat to run or throw the ball on a consistent basis. TCU will score, and its unlikely that the Rebels will be able to counter nearly enough to keep up and have any shot of stealing it late.
What To Watch Out For: This will likely be an opportunity for the TCU coaching staff to continue to see development with Casy Pachall. The sophomore QB has yet to be fully unleashed since taking over for all-everything Andy Dalton, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. He had over 300 yards through the air against SMU, and then followed it up with the out-of-this-world performance against Boise State (473 yards and 5 TDs).
Early in the year however, as well as sprinkled in-between these monster games, has been a safer, quicker passing attack to compliment a balanced playbook. This game will be a chance to break the seal on how good Pachall can be when the game plan is to unsaddle him and let him rip it down the field. Look for the coaches to put him in position to build confidence against a porous UNLV pass defense and not only for a bowl game, but towards bigger and better things next year and down the road.
What Will Happen: UNLV will plead no contest in this one. The Rebels will come out in an optimistic mood and play with plenty emotion early on but it won’t be enough. The coaches will allow Pachell to bomb away from the get go, mix in the running game and jump on the Rebels from the start. The Horned Frogs will get out in front early and often and stymie a UNLV attack on offense that hasn’t been able to do too much all year on any consistent basis. TCU will win big, celebrate an outright MW title, and get its bowling shoes on.
CFN Prediction: TCU 41 … UNLV 17
at Boise State 45 … New Mexico 0
(AP) BOISE, Idaho -- Kellen Moore threw three touchdowns in the final home game of his brilliant career and Doug Martin ran for two more as Boise State (No. 7 BCS, No. 9 AP) rolled over New Mexico 45-0 Saturday.
Moore, the winningest starting quarterback in college football history, was nearly flawless and the Broncos' defense had no problem bottling up the punchless Lobos.
The victory gives the Broncos (11-1, 6-1) their second straight season with a single loss and looks to clear the way for another trip to the MAACO Bowl in Las Vegas, where they dismantled No. 20 Utah a year ago 26-3.
Boise State's only loss came Nov. 12 against TCU.
But Saturday was clearly a landmark day for Moore.
In his final regular season game at Bronco Stadium, the lefty was 28 of 33 for 313 yards. As usual he spread the ball around, hitting 10 different receivers, and flawlessly ran Boise State's no-huddle offense through the first three quarters.
His three touchdown passes in the game gave him 41 on the season, breaking his own previous record of 39 set in his sophomore year. He also set a new school mark for completions in a season with 300, third most all-time in the Mountain West Conference.
It was also Moore's 49th career win as a starting quarterback, the best in FBS. He also has 137 career touchdown passes, second best behind Houston's Case Keenum.
The Broncos (11-1, 6-1) sprinted to the lead, scoring three touchdowns in the first quarter thanks to Moore's accuracy -- he completed 10 straight passes during one stretch -- and a Broncos defense that held the Lobos to one first down in their first three possessions.
Moore capped the Broncos' first two possessions of the game by throwing touchdowns of 2-yards to senior Kyle Efaw and 16-yards to Tyler Shoemaker.
Boise State started its third possession on the New Mexico 36, and five plays later Martin scored on a 4-yard run to stretch the lead to 21-0 with 1:35 left in the first quarter.
Boise State then worked on putting the game out of reach before halftime. Midway through the second, Moore engineered an 11-play, 89-yard drive that ended with a 15-yard TD to tight end Gabe Linehan. Minutes later, Michael Frisinia tacked on a 30-yard field goal to put the Broncos up 31-0 at the half.
Moore and other members of his recruiting class are a victory away from being the winningest senior class in school history. The 2006 group, the first batch signed by Boise State coach Chris Petersen, won a second BCS bowl, forced wholesale rewrites of the school record books and elevated Boise State's national profile from a pest from a small conference to a program that proved it could consistently beat teams from college football's biggest and best leagues.
As for the Lobos (1-11, 1-6), they are at the other end of the college football spectrum. They have lost 22 straight road games, the nation's longest such skid.
New Mexico had 197 total yards and crossed midfield only twice against the Broncos.
The loss gives the Lobos three straight seasons with just one win and closes out the brief, seven-game tenure of interim coach George Barlow, who took over in September after Mike Locksley was fired.
But Saturday's blowout in Boise also ushers in the Bob Davie era in Albuquerque. The former Notre Dame coach and television analyst will take over head coaching duties this month.
B.R. Holbrook was 16 of 28 for 145 yards and was sacked twice for New Mexico.
The Broncos scored once in the third quarter when Martin dashed 40 yards down the left sideline to put Boise State up 38-0.
Moments later, Moore, Martin and many other Broncos seniors walked off Bronco Stadium's quirky blue turf for the last time, closing out careers that spanned one of the most successful eras in school history.
New Mexico (1-10) at Boise State (10-1) Dec. 3, 6:00
Here’s The Deal … Boise still has an outside shot at not only a tie for the conference championship but also a BCS bowl birth. More than likely though, this game will be all about finishing strong and positioning itself for the best bowl invite that the it can muster after the realization that the chance for really big things went by the wayside with the defeat at the hands of TCU at home. New Mexico, on the other hand, has had a horrendous year and would like nothing more than to get a signature win to finish out the season and look towards building any sort of momentum towards better things next year. The Broncos have won two in a row since the upset by TCU, while New Mexico got back to its losing ways last week against UNLV after finally getting its first win the week before.
Why New Mexico Might Win: The football gods have to shine on the Lobos at some point right? Aside from the lone win and a couple of close calls against Colorado State and Sam Houston State, New Mexico has not had much go its way. With Boise State now knowing that it is definitely out of the national title race yet again ,with almost no shot at the conference title, and more than likely relegated to a lower tier bowl, the psyche of the Broncos may be wavering. Add to that the fact that this is senior day and all of the emotions and festivities that go along with it, and things could get interesting. You pile on the top of that the fact that this is the one shot that New Mexico has to make a statement, and the Lobos might be waltzing into a perfect storm against Boise State on the blue turf. If it can take advantage of all of the variables and roll out the emotion of a frustrating season, the potential for a shocker is there.
Why Boise State Might Win: Yeah. It’s Boise State against a very bad New Mexico team. The Lobos might just be the proud owners of the worst offense in the nation. The stats: Total Offense- 111, Scoring offense- 120 (dead last), Rushing offense- 98, and Passing offense- 92. The Lobos also might be toting the worst defense in the nation around as well with the 119th ranked rushing defense, 118th pass efficiency defense, 117th ranked total defense, and 119th ranked scoring defense. All of those stats say ouch in a big way, and say that New Mexico has absolutely no shot to make a game of this.
The last team in the league you probably want to come waltzing onto your schedule then to put a bow on the season is a Boise State team that can throw up over 300 yards of offense on average through the air, and nearly 480 per game total on average. The Broncos will seemingly be able to move the ball at will through the air or on the ground and put up some big numbers on offense. Likewise on defense, BSU who is holding opponents under 20 points a ball game shouldn’t have much trouble keeping the New Mexico offense on the sidelines most of the game and controlling this thing throughout.
What To Watch Out For: Look for Kellen Moore to have a HUGE moment on senior day and go out in style in front of the home fans. The Lobos have offered little resistance to opposing quarterbacks, and they have yet to face one the caliber of the once Heisman hopeful. The stiff-armed trophy has more than likely sailed right out of Idaho with the loss to TCU earlier, but if you keep an eye on this game, there's a real possibility that Moore puts up some video game numbers. He has already assaulted the record books at Boise State, but with two more touchdown passes, he will have also eclipsed his own single season Bronco record of 39 in 2009. Moore’s likely to pass it on Saturday and be on watch for the chance at a 400 yard passing day.
What Will Happen: This one will probably get ugly in a hurry. The coaching staff will want Kellen Moore to have a victory lap for his all-everything career and he will have free reign to bomb away at will against the Lobo secondary. Boise will come out of the tunnel letting him toss the ball all over the blue turf and the fans won’t be disappointed. The Broncos will jump on New Mexico from the opening kick off and not look back. Boise will win big and finish with yet another strong season to continue its polarizing story.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 48 … New Mexico 3
- Click For Latest Line From ATS: Boise
State -49.5 O/U: 61
UNLV (2-9) at TCU (9-2) Dec. 3, 2:30, Versus
Here’s The Deal …It’s TCU’s last game as a member of the Mountain West, and it has already clinched a tie for the conference crown. There's still unfinished business however, as it now has a chance to take the title outright with a win this week. The Horned Frogs will be putting their record 23 game conference winning streak and 16 game home conference winning streak on the line. UNLV on the other hand, is just trying to make it through the finishing kick to a disappointing season but would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler on the road. TCU is coming off of a pasting over Colorado State to run its winning streak to six, while UNLV took it on the chin from San Diego State for its fourth loss in a row.
Why UNLV Might Win: TCU was able to party last week in a conference clincher and is feeling mighty good about itself coming home to play a very weak UNLV squad on paper. With all of the magnitude and variables of playing for an outright title, senior day, and bowl possibilities, the psychological edge could be there for the Rebels to have a shot. This will be their mystical bowl game with a chance to make a dent in the bully of the conference of the last three years. What could be sweeter than knocking TCU down to a share of the league title? Look for UNLV to come out with more emotion and attitude than perhaps the entire season and do everything in its power to keep this game close--trying to pull it out at the end.
Why TCU Might Win: The Horned Frogs are on a serious roll and have talent that far surpasses that on the sideline of the Rebels. Though there’s not one aspect of TCU’s game that will jump out on the stat sheet, the Horned Frogs are solid across the board with a sum of all parts approach that has led to the nation’s tenth ranked scoring offense. Most of the damage is done in the running game, and TCU will be going against a Rebel defense that has been giving up almost 195 yards on average on the ground.
Then there’s the lowly offense of the Rebels. They have only been able to only muster 18 points a game with nary a threat to run or throw the ball on a consistent basis. TCU will score, and its unlikely that the Rebels will be able to counter nearly enough to keep up and have any shot of stealing it late.
What To Watch Out For: This will likely be an opportunity for the TCU coaching staff to continue to see development with Casy Pachall. The sophomore QB has yet to be fully unleashed since taking over for all-everything Andy Dalton, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. He had over 300 yards through the air against SMU, and then followed it up with the out-of-this-world performance against Boise State (473 yards and 5 TDs).
Early in the year however, as well as sprinkled in-between these monster games, has been a safer, quicker passing attack to compliment a balanced playbook. This game will be a chance to break the seal on how good Pachall can be when the game plan is to unsaddle him and let him rip it down the field. Look for the coaches to put him in position to build confidence against a porous UNLV pass defense and not only for a bowl game, but towards bigger and better things next year and down the road.
What Will Happen: UNLV will plead no contest in this one. The Rebels will come out in an optimistic mood and play with plenty emotion early on but it won’t be enough. The coaches will allow Pachell to bomb away from the get go, mix in the running game and jump on the Rebels from the start. The Horned Frogs will get out in front early and often and stymie a UNLV attack on offense that hasn’t been able to do too much all year on any consistent basis. TCU will win big, celebrate an outright MW title, and get its bowling shoes on.
CFN Prediction: TCU 47 … UNLV 10
- Click For Latest Line From ATS:
TCU -39.5 O/U: 57.5
BYU (8-3) at Hawaii (6-6) December 3rd, 7:30 PM ET
Here’s The Deal … Hawaii will host former WAC foe BYU in the first meeting between the two teams since 2002. The Cougars won that meeting 35-32 in Provo.
BYU has had an excellent season in their first year as an independent. After a 1-2 start, the Cougars have won seven of their last eight, including a win over WAC runner-up Utah State. Even though the team has already secured a bid to the Armed Services Bowl, BYU needs to win this game to reach 10 wins for the fifth time in Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s tenure.
Hawaii might be the most up and down team in the country this year. The Warriors have been very good at times this season, defeating Colorado and Louisiana Tech. They have also been very bad at times this season, losing to UNLV and Fresno State. With a 6-6 record, the Hawaii has to win this game in order to qualify for the postseason.
Why BYU Might Win: The reason that the Cougars have had so much success over the second half of the season is because they have established the run. BYU has rushed for 200 yards in five of their last seven games, and has averaged 4.4 yards per attempt. They should have no trouble running against a Hawaii defense that has struggled against power running teams Utah State, Nevada, and Fresno State in the past few weeks.
Why Hawaii Might Win: Even after June Jones bolted for SMU, the Warriors continue to move the chains with a high-octane passing attack. Hawaii again ranks in the Top 10 nationally in passing with a whopping 311 yards per game. More impressively, the offense has continued to succeed despite losing star QB Bryan Moniz to a broken leg. They will go on the attack against a BYU defense that has allowed opposing offenses to complete almost 59% of their passes.
What To Watch Out For: The key to beating Hawaii is to use the running game to set up the pass. In order to get the running game started, the Cougars will turn to RB JJ DiLuigi. While BYU uses a number of different backs, DiLuigi is the team’s leading rusher with 532 yards. In addition, he ranks fourth on the team in receiving with 251 yards. The Cougars will use DiLuigi’s versatility to open up the offense, and offset the potential absence of QB Riley Nelson, who may not play because of a rib injury.
On the other side of the ball, the Warriors’ hopes rest in the hands of QB David Graves. Graves has made the most of his playing time by rallying Hawaii for 3 TD’s against Fresno State, and leading them to victory against Tulane last week. Graves causes problems for opposing defensive coordinators because he can beat you with both his arm and his legs. In the last two games, Graves has thrown for 459 yards, and has run for an additional 90. The Warriors will need another big game from Graves to keep their bowl hopes alive.
What Will Happen: With bowl eligibility on the line, this will be a spirited contest. BYU will establish the run right away, and the Warriors will have some success through the air. Despite Hawaii’s success moving the ball, the Cougar defense will play bend-but-don’t-break defense and keep them out of the end zone, which will make the difference in the game. BYU pulls away in the second half, and prevents the Warriors from getting a bowl-qualifying seventh win.
CFN Prediction: BYU 28 … Hawaii 14
- Click For Latest Line From ATS:
BYU -7.5 O/U: 54.5
Fresno State (4-8) at San Diego State (7-4) Sat Dec 3, 8:00pm ET, CBS SN,
Here’s The Deal… Setting conference expansion rumors aside, this game signifies an important moment in California State College football history; it’s the game that SDSU and Fresno reunite as conference rivals. Fresno isn’t officially in the MWC yet, but these two just couldn’t stand to be separated any longer.
Now, setting that nostalgic indulgence aside, these rivals happen to be the proper kind; the kind that hate each other. Years of bad blood and abandonment issues have smoldered over aching coals, and threats of future abandonment and betrayal will not go unnoticed by the fan bases.
Fresno entered the season with hopes of finally getting the WAC championship knocked out before entering the MWC next year, it did so in spite of having an almost total turnover of offensive starters. The resulting season has gone in a fairly forgivable, partially predictable and completely horrible way. That’s all irrelevant now, this is game 13 in the season and the whole team has had a year of experience across the two deep.
Add that to a rekindled instate rivalry and the chance to play spoiler to SDSU’s recruiting and bowl hopes and you have all the revitalizing factors a team needs. SDSU needs this to establish a choice bowls spot, possibly the hometown Poinsettia.
Why Fresno State might win: Sophomore QB Derek Carr. He is truly carrying this offense and doing that well. Such a fine example of a QB nurturing his team is exactly what we all love to watch and yet terribly rare under this 2011’s circumstances. His 260 completion of 411 attempts performance has brought along Jalen Saunders and Devon Wylie among others to become the core of the Fresno offense. The pass works and it does so even under very difficult circumstances. Everyone knows Fresno wants to pass this year and it can force the pass to work anyway. Fresno has become 30th in the nation in pass offense, 31st in pass efficiency and 45th in total offense behind that efficiency.
Fresno has had trouble with turnovers, 116th in margin, and other execution problems that come with fielding a young team, but now that team has the whole year to build off of, and few of the fumbles were by running backs in the first place. It wouldn’t be a surprise if that problem just went away. The Fresno defense has been reinvigorated under interim defensive coach Tim Skipper, who has been calling more blitz and man coverage’s over the past two games.
Why San Diego State might win: SDSU has been playing mostly teams that run first to set up the pass, which isn’t its strong suit; it is perfectly suited to stop teams that pass to set up the run instead. Fresno is such a team. Fresno may have the 30th pass offense, but SDSU has the 16th pass defense, and where as Fresno has that nasty 116th turnover margin to overcome, SDSU rarely turns the ball over ranking tied for 13th in the nation.
Fresno’s RB Robbie Rouse is a vital piece of the Fresno game plan against SDSU’s battered and bruised defense, but the whole of the Fresno team has only managed the 72nd rush offense.
What To Watch Out For: Rouse and Carr. Carr can pass, but watch for his scrambling ability, his losses to sacks versus scrambles for positive yardage has been a roller coaster this year, the net is 80 yards in the black, but that’s only just considering how many scrambles and sacks he’s had to resort to. SDSU giving up the big run is a vital part of the Fresno game plan, if it can keep the chains moving, then it’s game on, if it can’t, its game off Fresno needs to play ball control to win, SDSU’s 40th national total offense is just plain better than Fresno’s 98th national total defense, reinvigorated as it may be.
What Will Happen: SDSU’s defense statistically is poor against the run, but that’s not the real story those statistics are reflecting. Most defenses try to shut down the run and the long pass to set up the long intermediate drop off pass on third down. SDSU defensively is designed to shut down the pass and force the interior run instead, where it feels it has the speed to close its eleven guys into the middle for the stop.
When SDSU has gone against a team that’s good at rushing through the middle, its defense hasn’t been able to work quite as well as planned. However, Fresno isn’t particularly good at rushing as a team, it has done far better with the pass this year. If it plays to run first, it is playing away from its strength, if it plays to pass first, it’s playing into the jaws of SDSU’s technique. Even if turnovers and SDSU RB Ronnie Hillman don’t become major issues in the game Fresno is still at a disadvantage. Expect Fresno to be able to produce yards, but not quite enough points.
CFN Prediction: San Diego State 43 ... Fresno State 34
- Click For Latest Line From ATS:
San Diego State -7.5 O/U: 59
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