Fiu, Cirminiello, Mitchell on TV - Campus Insiders | Buy College Football Tickets

Compu-Picks: 2011 - How it Did Part 1

Mr Pac Ten
Posted Jan 20, 2012


2011 Compu-Picks 2011 Review - How it Did, Part One: Comparing Compu-Picks projections to other publicly available sources

As you may recall, before the season started, I posted a record projection comparison between Compu-Picks and a number of other publicly available sources, including various books' win totals as well as numerous publications. Below is an analysis of how the different sources did.

Since not all sources posted projections for all 1-A teams, I chose to rank each one based on the average deviation (squared error) compared to final regular season wins. The rankings as shown in the below table. Please note that, per request, I am showing an alternative ranking system as well, whereby each picker's win projection is rounded to the nearest whole number (to equalize between those who provide decimal estimates and whole number estimates).

Picker Rank Total Deviation from Actual Average Deviation from Actual Rank - Rounded Total Deviation - Rounded Average Deviation - Rounded
Hilton Open 1 91.50 1.62 1 96 1.66
5Dimes 2 127.50 1.72 2 136 1.78
Cantor Open 3 139.75 1.85 3 150 1.91
Beyondthebets 4 280.00 1.89 5 292 1.93
Bodog 5 177.50 1.92 4 176 1.91
TheGreek Open 6 173.00 2.03 6 172 2.02
FOA 7 497.13 2.04 8 532 2.11
College Football Matrix 8 284.00 2.06 7 284 2.06
Compu-Picks 9 571.29 2.18 10 602 2.24
Athlon 10 583.00 2.23 9 583 2.23
Collegefootballnews.com 11 617.00 2.27 11 617 2.27
SI 12 651.00 2.37 12 651 2.37
collegefootballpoll.com 13 812.00 2.60 13 812 2.60

As you can see, this category was a somewhat disapointing showing for Compu-Picks. I discount it a bit since it's the system's first year, but I was expecting better. Hopefully next year it will be at or very close to the top of the list.

In case you'd like to see the full data list (either to check it or out of curiosity), below is the full table of projections team by team, as well as the actual win total for each, according to the following key:


Actual win total
Compu-Picks (CPK)
Hilton Open (HIL)
TheGreek.com Open (TG)
Cantor (Can)
5Dimes.com (5D)
Bodog.com (BDG) (8/26 lines)
Collegefootballnews.com (CFN)
Football Outsiders Almanac (FOA)
SI.com (SI)
Athlon (ATH)
Beyondthebets.com (BTB)
Collegefootballmatrix.com (CFM) (note: these projections were from March, before Ohio St / Miami news came out)
Collegefootballpoll.com (CFP)
as well as a consensus average (Tot)

As I did in the original post, I am highlighting projections that were substantially different from the consensus. 1.5 win differences get yellow, and 2.5 win differences get orange.


Team Name Actual CPK HIL TG Can 5D BDG CFN FOA SI ATH BTB CFM CFP Tot
Boston College 4.00 6.05 6.5 7 5.72 6 6 6.0 6.0 7.0 6.3
Clemson 9.00 6.03 7.0 7.0 8 7.47 8 6 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.2
Florida State 8.00 10.19 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 10.0 9 9.58 10 11 9.5 11.0 11.0 10.0
Maryland 2.00 5.15 4 6.50 8 8 6.0 5.0 7.0 6.2
North Carolina State 7.00 7.88 7 8.66 8 9 8.0 7.0 10.0 8.2
Wake Forest 6.00 4.46 2 3.04 5 2 3.0 4.0 2.0 3.2
Duke 3.00 5.37 4 3.64 4 4 4.0 4.0 3.0 4.0
Georgia Tech 8.00 6.86 6.0 6.0 7 6.22 8 6 7.0 7.0 5.0 6.5
Miami (Florida) 6.00 6.22 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.0 8 8.19 8 9 8.0 8.0 5.0 7.7
North Carolina 7.00 8.43 8.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 9 7.21 6 7 8.0 9.0 8.0 7.8
Virginia 8.00 6.11 6 5.01 5 5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.2
Virginia Tech 11.00 9.45 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 10 11.16 11 11 10.5 9.0 12.0 10.4
Baylor 9.00 4.50 6.5 6.5 4 4.67 6 6 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.6
Iowa State 6.00 2.47 4 2.66 4 4 4.0 2.0 2.0 3.1
Kansas 2.00 4.62 3.5 1 2.32 3 3 4.5 4.0 1.0 3.0
Kansas State 10.00 4.71 5.0 5.0 5.5 5 5.03 5 4 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Missouri 7.00 8.19 7.5 7.0 8.0 7.5 7.5 9 9.33 9 8 7.5 7.0 10.0 8.1
Oklahoma 9.00 9.72 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 11 10.74 12 12 10.5 10.0 12.0 10.7
Oklahoma State 11.00 8.48 8.5 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 9 9.31 8 10 9.0 8.0 9.0 8.6
Texas 7.00 7.09 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.0 8.5 9 7.10 8 8 7.5 8.0 5.0 7.7
Texas A&M 6.00 8.73 8.5 8.5 9.0 8.5 8.5 8 7.94 8 10 9.0 9.0 11.0 8.8
Texas Tech 5.00 7.32 7.0 7.0 7 7.00 7 7 6.5 7.0 8.0 7.1
Cincinnati 9.00 7.57 6.5 6 7.78 7 7 7.0 6.0 5.0 6.6
Connecticut 5.00 5.68 6 7.56 7 6 7.0 4.0 9.0 6.5
Louisville 7.00 6.06 7 5.90 5 5 6.0 7.0 3.0 5.6
Pittsburgh 6.00 6.78 8.5 6 9.56 10 7 8.5 6.0 10.0 8.0
Rutgers 8.00 4.91 6.5 6 5.42 4 6 6.0 8.0 4.0 5.6
South Florida 5.00 8.02 8.0 8.0 8.0 9 6.67 9 8 8.0 7.0 8.0 8.0
Syracuse 5.00 5.59 6.0 6.0 6.0 6 4.84 6 8 6.5 5.0 7.0 6.1
West Virginia 9.00 9.56 9.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 10 9.63 10 10 8.0 8.0 10.0 9.3
Iowa 7.00 6.25 8.0 8.0 8 8.79 9 8 8.5 7.0 5.0 7.7
Michigan 10.00 6.24 7.0 7.0 7.5 7.0 7.0 9 8.57 7 8 7.0 8.0 7.0 7.4
Michigan State 10.00 8.14 7.5 7.0 8.0 7.5 7.0 8 7.15 9 9 8.0 9.0 10.0 8.1
Minnesota 3.00 4.90 5 4.76 4 4 4.0 3.0 2.0 4.0
Nebraska 9.00 9.01 9.5 10.0 10.0 9.5 10.0 9 8.36 10 11 9.5 8.0 12.0 9.7
Northwestern 6.00 5.83 7.5 6 5.40 8 6 6.5 6.0 9.0 6.7
Illinois 6.00 6.33 6.5 7 7.30 4 7 8.0 7.0 8.0 6.8
Indiana 1.00 4.00 4 3.98 5 4 4.0 5.0 1.0 3.9
Ohio State 6.00 10.20 9.0 8.5 9.0 10 9.50 7 10 8.0 9.0 8.0 8.9
Penn State 9.00 8.49 7.5 8.0 7.5 7.5 8.0 7 7.84 8 7 7.5 9.0 7.0 7.7
Purdue 6.00 6.00 5 4.43 6 5 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.0
Wisconsin 10.00 8.36 9.5 9.0 9.5 9.5 9.0 10 9.62 10 9 9.5 7.0 10.0 9.2
Central Florida 5.00 7.68 8 7.86 9 9 8.0 8.3
East Carolina 5.00 4.82 6 6.39 5 6 2.0 5.0
Marshall 6.00 3.23 6 3.36 5 4 4.0 4.3
Memphis 2.00 2.86 2 2.46 1 1 0.0 1.6
Southern Mississippi 10.00 8.65 8 8.55 8 9 12.0 9.0
Alabama-Birmingham 3.00 3.97 4 4.50 4 5 4.0 4.2
Houston 12.00 8.47 10 8.36 9 9 10.0 9.1
Rice 4.00 4.93 3 3.22 3 4 4.0 3.7
Southern Methodist 7.00 7.61 7 6.65 9 9 8.0 7.9
Tulane 2.00 3.79 3 3.96 4 3 3.0 3.5
Tulsa 8.00 6.50 8 7.33 7 6 9.0 7.3
Texas-El Paso 5.00 4.71 2 3.91 3 2 3.0 3.1
Army 3.00 5.64 6 4.01 5.0 4.0 4.9
Brigham Young 9.00 9.22 8.5 8.5 8.5 9 8.15 8.5 11.0 8.9
Navy 5.00 7.60 6 7.88 7.0 6.0 6.9
Notre Dame 8.00 9.38 8.5 9.0 9.5 8.5 9.0 9 8.64 10 9.0 9.0 11.0 9.2
Akron 1.00 2.99 2 3.11 5 2 1.0 2.7
Bowling Green State 5.00 5.43 6 4.35 6 5 1.0 4.6
Buffalo 3.00 3.32 2 3.26 3 2 3.0 2.8
Kent 5.00 4.26 5 5.77 5 5 6.0 5.2
Miami (Ohio) 4.00 4.07 5 5.11 7 6 10.0 6.2
Ohio 9.00 8.40 7 7.42 9 8 8.0 8.0
Temple 8.00 5.81 7 7.33 5 6 8.0 6.5
Ball State 6.00 4.67 1 3.86 2 3 4.0 3.1
Central Michigan 3.00 6.64 6 6.13 4 4 4.0 5.1
Eastern Michigan 6.00 3.23 3 4.16 3 4 4.0 3.6
Northern Illinois 9.00 7.26 9 9.53 8 7 10.0 8.5
Toledo 8.00 5.54 8 5.66 8 8 10.0 7.5
Western Michigan 7.00 7.15 8 6.60 7 6 6.0 6.8
Air Force 7.00 8.71 7.5 9 7.86 9 9 8.5 10.0 8.7
Boise State 11.00 10.76 10.5 10.0 10.5 10.5 10.0 11 11.22 11 11 11.0 12.0 10.8
Colorado State 3.00 5.05 4.5 7 3.58 6 6 6.0 2.0 5.0
New Mexico 1.00 3.53 2 3.18 4 2 3.0 3.0 3.0
San Diego State 8.00 6.42 8 7.47 6 7 6.0 9.0 7.1
Texas Christian 10.00 10.04 9.0 9.0 9.5 9.0 9.0 11 10.82 10 10 8.5 8.0 9.5
Nevada-Las Vegas 2.00 2.42 2.5 3.0 2.5 3 2.39 2 3 2.5 1.0 2.4
Wyoming 8.00 4.67 3 5.35 4 4 6.0 6.0 4.7
California 7.00 5.18 6 5.05 4 5 6.0 7.0 4.0 5.3
Oregon 11.00 10.16 9.5 10.0 9.5 11 9.59 10 11 10.5 11.0 11.0 10.3
Oregon State 3.00 5.31 6.5 7.0 6.5 6.5 7.0 6 6.67 5 6 6.5 7.0 3.0 6.1
Stanford 11.00 9.26 9.0 8.5 9.0 9.0 8.5 8 10.26 10 9 9.0 8.0 10.0 9.0
Washington 7.00 5.62 6.5 6.0 5 5.15 7 7 6.5 6.0 7.0 6.2
Washington State 4.00 5.02 4.5 2 2.47 4 3 3.5 4.0 2.0 3.4
Colorado 3.00 1.27 4.0 4 4.20 2 3 4.0 2.0 4.0 3.2
Arizona 4.00 5.91 6.5 6.5 6.5 6 6.32 6 6 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.9
Arizona State 6.00 8.01 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 10 7.64 8 8 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0
UCLA 6.00 7.30 5.5 5.5 5.5 6 4.74 4 4 5.5 5.0 4.0 5.2
Southern California 10.00 7.37 7.5 7.5 8.0 7.5 7.5 10 8.77 9 9 8.0 8.0 9.0 8.2
Utah 7.00 8.13 7.5 7.5 7.5 7 7.40 9 7 8.0 5.0 9.0 7.5
Florida 6.00 6.16 7.5 8.0 7.5 7.5 8.0 10 7.83 7 9 8.0 8.0 7.0 7.8
Georgia 10.00 6.25 8.5 8.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 9 8.46 6 10 9.0 9.0 6.0 8.1
Kentucky 5.00 6.91 6.0 6.0 5 6.87 5 6 6.0 6.0 7.0 6.1
South Carolina 10.00 9.92 9.0 9.0 8.5 9.0 9.0 9 8.72 10 8 8.5 8.0 10.0 9.0
Tennessee 5.00 7.85 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 8 5.62 6 6 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.6
Vanderbilt 6.00 3.82 3.5 2 2.99 4 3 3.5 3.0 1.0 3.0
Alabama 11.00 9.95 10.0 10.0 10.5 10.0 10.0 10 10.86 12 12 10.5 11.0 12.0 10.7
Arkansas 10.00 8.66 8.5 8.5 8.5 9 9.05 9 9 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8
Auburn 7.00 7.62 6.0 6.5 6.5 6.0 6.5 7 8.79 8 6 6.5 7.0 6.0 6.8
Louisiana State 12.00 7.93 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9 8.95 10 10 9.5 10.0 11.0 9.5
Mississippi 2.00 5.79 4.5 6 5.16 5 5 6.0 7.0 3.0 5.3
Mississippi State 6.00 6.78 7.5 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 8 6.00 9 7 7.0 7.0 9.0 7.4
Arkansas State 10.00 4.66 6 7.07 6 7 4.0 5.8
Louisiana-Lafayette 8.00 4.84 3 3.66 2 3 1.0 2.9
Louisiana-Monroe 4.00 6.28 6 5.14 5 5 8.0 5.9
Middle Tennessee State 2.00 5.46 3 4.52 6 5 4.0 4.7
North Texas 5.00 2.73 3 4.04 4 4 4.0 3.6
Troy State 3.00 7.56 7 7.12 7 7 8.0 7.3
Florida Atlantic 1.00 3.16 3 3.23 3 1 4.0 2.9
Florida International 8.00 6.00 7 7.32 8 7 10.0 7.6
Western Kentucky 7.00 4.95 2 4.01 3 4 4.0 3.7
Fresno State 4.00 6.75 6 6.24 10 7 6.0 7.0
Hawaii 6.00 8.95 9 8.66 9 10 7.0 8.8
Idaho 2.00 4.61 4 4.05 5 4 8.0 4.9
Louisiana Tech 8.00 4.94 6 5.23 5 6 4.0 5.2
Nevada 7.00 7.96 8.0 8.0 8.0 9 8.89 9 8 9.0 8.4
New Mexico State 4.00 2.58 0 1.51 2 1 2.0 1.5
San Jose State 5.00 4.56 2 3.52 3 2 2.0 2.8
Utah State 7.00 4.11 4 4.55 5 4 6.0 4.6
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about the Compu-Picks model:

1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling. Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.

2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.

3) This preseason model is primarily based on the main compu-picks model. Essentially, it attempts to predict how well a team will rate given its rating history, as well as a number of other data points, such as returning starters, draft talent lost, turnovers, recruiting, etc. This means, among other things, that the rankings are power rankings based on how good a team projects to be, as opposed to a more cynical (though accurate) model that attempts to project how the BCS will rank a team by making adjustments to favor those with easy schedules and punish those with tough schedules.

2011 Compu-Picks Blog

Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com

Follow cfn_ms on Twitter