As you may recall, before the season started, I posted three different sets of picks against Vegas/offshore win totals:
the Hilton opening lines,
the Greek lines, and
5Dimes Lines. The results of those picks are shown below:
Hilton Open
| Team | Over/Under | Pick | Confidence | Wins | Losses |
| Florida State | 9.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Miami (Florida) | 8 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | 10 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Missouri | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Texas | 8 | Under | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Michigan | 7 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Penn State | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 9.5 | Under | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Brigham Young | 8.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 8.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Texas Christian | 9 | Over | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Oregon State | 6.5 | Under | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Utah | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Florida | 7.5 | Under | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Georgia | 8.5 | Under | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 9 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | Over | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Auburn | 6 | Over | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Louisiana State | 9.5 | Under | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Mississippi State | 7.5 | Under | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| | |
| Subtotal | | | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| | | | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| | | | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| | | | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Total | | | | 18 | 17 |
The Greek
| Team | Over/Under | Pick | Confidence | Wins | Losses |
| Clemson | 7 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Georgia Tech | 6 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Miami (Florida) | 8 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Virginia Tech | 10 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Baylor | 6.5 | Under | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Texas | 8.5 | Under | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Iowa | 8 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Michigan | 7 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 7 | Over | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 10 | Under | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ohio State | 9 | Over | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Wisconsin | 9 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Boise State | 10 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Texas Christian | 9 | Over | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Oregon | 9.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Oregon State | 7 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Stanford | 8.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Arizona | 6.5 | Under | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| UCLA | 5.5 | Over | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Florida | 8 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Georgia | 8 | Under | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Kentucky | 6 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| South Carolina | 9 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | Over | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Auburn | 6.5 | Over | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Louisiana State | 9.5 | Under | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| | |
| Subtotal | | | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| | | | 2 | 8 | 4 |
| | | | 3 | 15 | 6 |
| | | | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Total | | | | 30 | 20 |
5Dimes
| Team | Over/Under | Pick | Confidence | Wins | Losses |
| Florida State | 9.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Miami (Florida) | 8 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Virginia Tech | 10 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kansas | 3.5 | Over | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Missouri | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Texas | 8 | Under | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 6.5 | Over | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 8.5 | Under | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Rutgers | 6.5 | Under | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Michigan | 7 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Michigan State | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Penn State | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 9.5 | Under | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Brigham Young | 8.5 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 8.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Texas Christian | 9 | Over | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Oregon State | 6.5 | Under | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Washington | 6.5 | Under | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Utah | 7.5 | Over | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Florida | 7.5 | Under | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Georgia | 8.5 | Under | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 9 | Over | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | Over | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Auburn | 6 | Over | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Louisiana State | 9.5 | Under | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Mississippi | 4.5 | Over | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Mississippi State | 7.5 | Under | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| |
|
| Subtotal | | | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| | | | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| | | | 3 | 9 | 6 |
| | | | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Total | | | | 23 | 25 |
Overall, I was a bit happier with this than I was with the record projection comparison. Here, it didn't do fantastic, but the overall record between the three pick sets
was a pretty respectable 71-62 (53.4%), decently above the 52.4% needed to break even given -110 lines. As with the the record projection comparison, I expect
to do better in the future for these picks, but it's a pretty decent start.
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling.
Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
2011 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
