2012 NFL Draft
The Overrated Prospects
- The Most Underrated Prospects
- The Most Overrated Prospects
- The Boom or Bust Prospects
- The Unknowns You Must Know
- The Late Round Fliers To Take
- The Freaks of Nature
- The Big Names, Late Picks
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These are the top players who'll likely get overdrafted. Either they're mediocre
prospects, or they're going to be way too high
considering their value at the position, or
both. One thing to keep in mind; these players
probably won't bust and some will be terrific. However, they're getting
more respect and consideration than they probably should.
10.
WR Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma 5-10, 192
While he showed he’s coming back quickly from the torn ACL that cost him the last half of his final year, and he showed great straight-line speed in his pro day, there are still plenty of question marks about whether or not he can hold up. Being hurt is nothing new, though, with a variety of injuries throughout his career. Even so, he was able to produce at the highest of levels, turning out to be the greatest receiver in Oklahoma history. However, the great Sooner receiver in the NFL is … ? Very smart and very quick, he’s crafty and creative when it comes to getting open, and he’s extremely strong for his size. A great college football player, he doesn’t have the elite athleticism or speed to make up for his wiry frame, and if the knee injury cost him even a sliver of quickness he might not be anything more than a backup.
CFN Projection: Fourth Round
9.
TE Coby Fleener, Stanford 6-6, 252
Very tall, very big, and a very good receiver, he’s not Jimmy Graham athletically but he has the same sort of body type and knows how to dominate smaller defensive backs. With great hands, he doesn’t drop the ball and is a good fighter when the ball is in the air. He didn’t need to bail out Andrew Luck too often, but he helped the cause coming up with several big plays highlighted by a huge game in the 2011 Orange Bowl. However, he only had a few big games last year despite scoring ten times. The potential is there to be a stat-sheet filler and become a pure receiver, but forget about blocking. While he’ll try, he doesn’t get enough of a push and he’s not going to do too much for the ground game. Yes, he’s an athletic receiver, but he’s not an elite athlete and is more of a football player than a workout warrior.
CFN Projection: Second Round
8.
DE Andre Branch, Clemson (OLB) 6-4, 259
A beefed up outside linebacker, he’ll be fine in almost any scheme on the outside in some way, shape, or form. A hybrid more than a tweener, he’ll probably start out as an outside linebacker before adding a little more weight – he has the frame to get up to 270 without a problem – to become a true end. Quick, he gets around in a hurry and looked the part at the Combine with smooth quickness and cutting ability. The concern will be against the run. Not really a run stopper of an outside linebacker, he’ll have to hit the weight room to become functionally stronger. The biggest issue, though, is a back problem that’s not going to get any better after getting beaten on. There’s going to be a large Buyer Beware sign on his back, but he could flourish out of the box if he’s used only as a speed rusher.
CFN Projection: Second Round
7.
WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech (Jr.) 6-5, 215
He’s not Demaryius Thomas and he’s certainly not Calvin Johnson, but the tools are way too intriguing to ignore. Not only is he one of the biggest receivers in the draft, but he’s among the fastest clocking in a blazing 4.33. With his upside and talent he should be a mismatch nightmare and he might just be scratching the surface on what he can become. After a rocky start and academic issues he has matured, improved, and is ready to blossom – eventually. He fights the ball way too much and he’s more of a gear-up receiver than a quick one for midrange routes. It might take a little while and a lot of tweaking, but it’s all there to become a dangerous part of any attack. He helped himself in offseason workouts and now will be one of the biggest calls in the first few rounds.
CFN Projection: Second Round
6. OT Bobby Massie, Ole Miss (Jr.) 6-6, 316
With a world of talent and upside, he was a superstar recruit for Ole Miss and was expected to be a dominant presence and a mainstay for the front five. While he was good, and he grew into a nice starter, he wasn’t the dominator many expected him to become. With a great body, the right length, and excellent strength, he has the tools and the ability to become a long time starter on either side. Most of the tweaks aren’t that major and he just needs a little fine-tuning with the upside to get even stronger and better if he can light the fire. Getting better leverage on a regular basis is a must, and he has to improve against the craftier pass rushers, but there’s plenty to get excited about for one of the bigger boom-or-bust picks among the top 75 prospects.
CFN Projection: Third Round
5. WR Kendall Wright, Baylor 5-10, 196
Someone had to be on the other end of the Robert Griffin deep passes. Wright was a disaster at the Combine struggling to hit the 4.6 mark, and while he plays faster and was much, much better at his pro day, the Indy workout was still a big concern. A great athlete who’s as smooth as silk, he’s a finesse target who can hit the home run from anywhere on the field. Shifty, he cuts on a dime and can get into the open with one move. While he’s not a physical receiver, he can take a shot and doesn’t wilt. Was he that good or was he a part of a Baylor system that inflates numbers? It might have been a little bit of both, but the biggest problem is his lack of size and bulk among the top prospects.
The frame isn’t there to add more weight and he’ll never block anyone, but that won’t be his job. There’s still room to improve and there’s even more upside to his game after a great college career, and with the want-to and the No. 1 receiver attitude he should be a dangerous pro. However, will he be worth the value? He’s being considered by many for a first round pick, but he’s hardly a sure thing. Remember, receiver is one of the flakiest and most unpredictable spots in the draft on a regular basis, and while he’d be worth taking around the mid-second round, he’s not worth a top 20 pick in a deep receiver class.
CFN Projection: Second Round
4. CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina 6-1, 190
Fast, athletic, and big, he has all the tools and looks the part of a No. 1 cornerback. At 6-1 he has great size to go along with 4.4 speed, terrific quickness, and solid leaping ability. A workout warrior, he’s the type of corner that everyone sees move, jump, and run, and then falls in love. A good tackler, he’s more than willing to step up and make a stop when he needs to, and he’s not going to shy away from being physical. However, while he works out well, he doesn’t always play like it on the field and he lacks the finer points and techniques. He’ll tackle, but he also gets flattened and gets blocked a bit too easily. But the speed, size, and upside are all too great to not take a chance on somewhere in the top 50. If patient and with a little bit of tweaking, some team could be getting an elite talent. However, he’s not a sure thing with the seasoning he needs, and he’s certainly not worthy of a top 15 pick.
CFN Projection: First Round
3. DE Chandler Jones, Syracuse (Jr.) 6-5, 266
Athletic, he’s tall, lean, and moves like a basketball player with a smooth ability to move around the edge. This might be just the start with a frame that can easily handle another ten pounds of good weight and be just as effective. Eventually, getting bigger is a must – he has to camp out in an NFL weight room - considering he’s missing the raw speed to fly around the edge. While he brings the effort and he’ll work to get better, he’s not all that physical and he could use a bit more bulk to end up as a 3-4 end. Likely to be overdrafted, he’ll be a good player, but someone is going to be hoping for an elite pass rusher will probably be disappointed.
CFN Projection: First Round
2. RB Trent Richardson, Alabama (Jr.) 5-9, 228
It’s not a question of whether or not Richardson is a great talent; it’s a question of whether or not he’ll be worth a high draft pick in today’s day and age of interchangeable running backs.
Very quick, freakishly strong, and rocked up in perfect shape, he has all the tools. He might be a little shorter than some might like, and there’s no room to get any bigger, and he always seems to have a ding of some sort, but it’s all there to be a franchise back, and yes, if there’s any one back who might be worth a high pick, Richardson could be it.
He’s a natural, creative runner who can both flash to the outside and move and can crank out tough plays on the inside. While he’s not afraid of contact, that’s more of a problem at times because he takes a beating with knee problems a major concern for his shelf life. Anyone taking him high, though, will have to do its homework on exactly who he was great against with most of his stats coming against the mediocre. Of his 21 rushing scores last year, 14 came against teams that didn’t go bowling. However, he has all the skills to be an even better pro than a collegian with the talent to be used in a variety of ways including as a nice outlet receiver.
With the right attitude and character he’s not a diva and will do all the dirty work needed to get better, and he’ll love the idea of being a workhorse as long as he can hold up. Fine, so he’ll be overdrafted considering the position doesn’t matter like it did ten years ago, but that doesn't mean he won't produce.
CFN Projection: First Round
1. WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State (Jr.) 6-1, 207
One of the most productive receivers in college football history, he was keyed on by defense after defense, but it didn’t matter as he always found ways to get open and always fought his way to make plays. Extremely tough on the field, he’s looks physical and plays like it while also finding ways to keep working and keep moving to make sure he can be in a position to make something happen. But will he be able to muscle anyone in the NFL? No.
He’s not that big compared to the elite pro targets, and he’s a bit too short and not necessarily a blazer. He timed well on his pro day, but in today’s day and age of Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and receivers who are really, really big and really, really fast, Blackmon isn’t either one. Making matters worse, despite looking the part, he’s not actually that strong with an okay 14 reps on the bench at the Combine.
The problem is that he’s more of a good football player than an elite prospect and he’s not going to be the type of receiver who can carry an entire pro passing game by himself. His numbers, while great, were inflated a bit by being in the Oklahoma State offense, and as Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, and until he plays a full season, Dez Bryant have proven, Big 12 receivers, while productive, get overdrafted. There’s little bust potential, but he’s a faster Anquan Boldin instead of a Megatron. In such a deep class of receivers, is he worthy of a top ten pick? No, but that doesn't mean he won't be terrific.
CFN Projection: First Round
- The Most Underrated Prospects
- The Most Overrated Prospects
- The Boom or Bust Prospects
- The Unknowns You Must Know
- The Late Round Fliers To Take
- The Freaks of Nature
- The Big Names, Late Picks