One of the things that I like to do with this model is come up with interesting bits of information about the season.
Rankings, schedule strength, which teams got better and which got worse, which teams had an especially strong home-field edge
and which did relatively better on the road (yes there WERE a few, as there usually are), and more.
I hope you enjoy the list and commentary, and if you have some ideas for things you'd like to see in future versions of this,
please let me know. I'm always on the lookout for good new ideas, either to incorporate into the model itself or into the
exhibits I provide based on the model.
Detailed commentary on the ratings may be posted in a future column.
Team Rankings - 1 to 120
| 1 Alabama | 31 Louisiana Tech | 61 Ohio | 91 Miami (Ohio) |
| 2 Louisiana State | 32 Rutgers | 62 Wake Forest | 92 Hawaii |
| 3 Oklahoma State | 33 Vanderbilt | 63 North Carolina State | 93 Bowling Green State |
| 4 Oregon | 34 Mississippi State | 64 Illinois | 94 Fresno State |
| 5 Oklahoma | 35 Tulsa | 65 San Diego State | 95 Ball State |
| 6 Stanford | 36 Arizona State | 66 Navy | 96 Rice |
| 7 Boise State | 37 Penn State | 67 Arizona | 97 Mississippi |
| 8 Wisconsin | 38 Auburn | 68 UCLA | 98 Kansas |
| 9 Arkansas | 39 California | 69 Western Michigan | 99 Colorado |
| 10 Southern California | 40 Utah | 70 Louisiana-Lafayette | 100 Eastern Michigan |
| 11 Houston | 41 Brigham Young | 71 Air Force | 101 Kent |
| 12 Michigan | 42 Toledo | 72 Oregon State | 102 Louisiana-Monroe |
| 13 South Carolina | 43 Temple | 73 Purdue | 103 North Texas |
| 14 Kansas State | 44 Washington | 74 Virginia | 104 Maryland |
| 15 Georgia | 45 Miami (Florida) | 75 Connecticut | 105 Army |
| 16 Texas A&M | 46 Iowa | 76 Utah State | 106 New Mexico State |
| 17 Texas Christian | 47 Ohio State | 77 Washington State | 107 Troy State |
| 18 Baylor | 48 Georgia Tech | 78 Central Florida | 108 Central Michigan |
| 19 Michigan State | 49 Northwestern | 79 Western Kentucky | 109 Idaho |
| 20 Texas | 50 South Florida | 80 Wyoming | 110 Indiana |
| 21 Missouri | 51 Northern Illinois | 81 Kentucky | 111 Colorado State |
| 22 Florida State | 52 North Carolina | 82 Marshall | 112 Buffalo |
| 23 Southern Mississippi | 53 Iowa State | 83 Florida International | 113 Alabama-Birmingham |
| 24 Nebraska | 54 Nevada | 84 Syracuse | 114 Nevada-Las Vegas |
| 25 Notre Dame | 55 Arkansas State | 85 East Carolina | 115 Middle Tennessee State |
| 26 West Virginia | 56 Louisville | 86 San Jose State | 116 Tulane |
| 27 Clemson | 57 Pittsburgh | 87 Minnesota | 117 Memphis |
| 28 Virginia Tech | 58 Texas Tech | 88 Boston College | 118 New Mexico |
| 29 Florida | 59 Tennessee | 89 Texas-El Paso | 119 Florida Atlantic |
| 30 Cincinnati | 60 Southern Methodist | 90 Duke | 120 Akron |
Detailed Top 30 Team Ratings
| Rank | AP Rank | Team | League | Score | Schedule Rank * | Result Rank |
| 1 | 1 | Alabama | SEC | 1.04 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | Louisiana State | SEC | 0.96 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 0.84 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 0.75 | 6 | 8 |
| 5 | 16 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 0.71 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | 7 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 0.70 | 20 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | Boise State | Mountain West | 0.67 | 50 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 0.60 | 36 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | Arkansas | SEC | 0.54 | 15 | 17 |
| 10 | 6 | Southern California | Pac-12 | 0.53 | 31 | 14 |
| 11 | 18 | Houston | C-USA | 0.50 | 70 | 4 |
| 12 | 12 | Michigan | Big Ten | 0.50 | 37 | 10 |
| 13 | 9 | South Carolina | SEC | 0.49 | 30 | 16 |
| 14 | 15 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 0.45 | 4 | 40 |
| 15 | 19 | Georgia | SEC | 0.44 | 14 | 23 |
| 16 | NR | Texas A&M | Big 12 | 0.42 | 23 | 20 |
| 17 | 14 | Texas Christian | Mountain West | 0.40 | 74 | 9 |
| 18 | 13 | Baylor | Big 12 | 0.40 | 7 | 31 |
| 19 | 11 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 0.40 | 35 | 18 |
| 20 | NR | Texas | Big 12 | 0.37 | 9 | 38 |
| 21 | NR | Missouri | Big 12 | 0.37 | 12 | 39 |
| 22 | 23 | Florida State | ACC | 0.36 | 57 | 15 |
| 23 | 20 | Southern Mississippi | C-USA | 0.32 | 82 | 12 |
| 24 | 24 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 0.30 | 26 | 36 |
| 25 | NR | Notre Dame | Indep | 0.30 | 29 | 32 |
| 26 | 17 | West Virginia | Big East | 0.28 | 45 | 26 |
| 27 | 22 | Clemson | ACC | 0.28 | 33 | 35 |
| 28 | 21 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 0.26 | 58 | 22 |
| 29 | NR | Florida | SEC | 0.25 | 21 | 50 |
| 30 | 25 | Cincinnati | Big East | 0.23 | 64 | 21 |
Schedule Strength - Top and Bottom 30
| Team | Sagarin SOS Ranking | NCAA SOS Ranking | FEI SOS Ranking | | Team |
| 1 Louisiana State | 7 | 1 | 1 | | 91 Idaho |
| 2 Oklahoma State | 3 | 4 | 26 | | 92 Bowling Green State |
| 3 Alabama | 15 | 5 | 16 | | 93 Air Force |
| 4 Kansas State | 8 | 8 | 9 | | 94 Western Michigan |
| 5 Oklahoma | 6 | 7 | 7 | | 95 Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 6 Oregon | 35 | 27 | 20 | | 96 Eastern Michigan |
| 7 Baylor | 10 | 9 | 10 | | 97 New Mexico |
| 8 Iowa State | 2 | 13 | 6 | | 98 New Mexico State |
| 9 Texas | 5 | 18 | 13 | | 99 Central Michigan |
| 10 Kansas | 1 | 2 | 8 | | 100 Utah State |
| 11 Mississippi | 9 | 11 | 25 | | 101 North Texas |
| 12 Missouri | 13 | 28 | 11 | | 102 Miami (Ohio) |
| 13 Auburn | 14 | 3 | 2 | | 103 Northern Illinois |
| 14 Georgia | 23 | 15 | 22 | | 104 Central Florida |
| 15 Arkansas | 20 | 25 | 3 | | 105 Western Kentucky |
| 16 Texas Tech | 11 | 34 | 15 | | 106 Alabama-Birmingham |
| 17 Arizona | 18 | 14 | 17 | | 107 Buffalo |
| 18 Washington | 24 | 33 | 35 | | 108 Ohio |
| 19 Oregon State | 19 | 29 | 33 | | 109 Colorado State |
| 20 Stanford | 36 | 42 | 29 | | 110 Troy State |
| 21 Florida | 22 | 30 | 4 | | 111 Akron |
| 22 Arizona State | 34 | 47 | 43 | | 112 Hawaii |
| 23 Texas A&M | 4 | 18 | 14 | | 113 Temple |
| 24 California | 29 | 57 | 37 | | 114 Louisiana-Monroe |
| 25 Tennessee | 12 | 6 | 5 | | 115 Florida Atlantic |
| 26 Nebraska | 26 | 9 | 31 | | 116 Arkansas State |
| 27 Mississippi State | 28 | 25 | 12 | | 117 Tulane |
| 28 Vanderbilt | 27 | 41 | 19 | | 118 Memphis |
| 29 Notre Dame | 25 | 32 | 27 | | 119 Middle Tennessee State |
| 30 South Carolina | 32 | 22 | 67 | | 120 Florida International |
League Ratings
| League | Rating | OOC Schedule Rating | Home/Away/Neutral Splits | OOC vs Top 10 | OOC vs 11-20 | OOC vs 21-40 | OOC vs 41-60 | OOC vs 61-80 | OOC vs 81-100 | OOC vs Bottom 20 |
| Big 12 | 0.33 | 0.05 | 15 / 8 / 9 | 1 - 2 | 1 - 0 | 4 - 2 | 10 - 1 | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 | 3 - 0 |
| SEC | 0.32 | -0.09 | 24 / 8 / 11 | 1 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 6 - 4 | 2 - 2 | 8 - 0 | 2 - 0 | 14 - 0 |
| Pac-12 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 13 / 12 / 9 | 1 - 5 | 0 - 4 | 3 - 1 | 4 - 2 | 1 - 3 | 7 - 1 | 2 - 0 |
| Big Ten | 0.11 | -0.04 | 26 / 10 / 12 | 0 - 4 | 1 - 3 | 3 - 3 | 6 - 2 | 7 - 1 | 7 - 2 | 7 - 2 |
| Big East | 0.06 | -0.05 | 19 / 12 / 6 | 0 - 2 | 0 - 0 | 3 - 3 | 2 - 7 | 4 - 2 | 6 - 2 | 6 - 0 |
| ACC | 0.01 | 0.04 | 22 / 13 / 8 | 0 - 2 | 0 - 4 | 5 - 11 | 5 - 2 | 0 - 1 | 5 - 1 | 7 - 0 |
| Indep | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18 / 22 / 3 | 0 - 2 | 1 - 4 | 1 - 6 | 2 - 4 | 6 - 4 | 4 - 4 | 5 - 0 |
| Mountain West | -0.15 | 0.02 | 13 / 17 / 6 | 0 - 2 | 1 - 2 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 6 | 3 - 3 | 4 - 3 | 3 - 1 |
| C-USA | -0.18 | 0.04 | 14 / 27 / 6 | 0 - 3 | 1 - 4 | 3 - 6 | 3 - 6 | 5 - 2 | 2 - 4 | 4 - 4 |
| WAC | -0.20 | 0.01 | 14 / 24 / 3 | 0 - 4 | 0 - 4 | 0 - 6 | 0 - 7 | 2 - 5 | 3 - 3 | 5 - 2 |
| MAC | -0.24 | 0.03 | 12 / 26 / 7 | 0 - 4 | 0 - 4 | 0 - 7 | 1 - 5 | 4 - 6 | 1 - 5 | 8 - 0 |
| Sun Belt | -0.34 | 0.01 | 10 / 21 / 4 | 0 - 4 | 0 - 3 | 0 - 6 | 1 - 4 | 2 - 5 | 0 - 3 | 7 - 0 |
|
| League | Rating | Bowl Record | OOC vs AQ's | OOC vs Non-AQ's | OOC vs Big 12 / SEC | OOC vs Pac-12 / Big Ten | OOC vs ACC / Big East | OOC vs MWC / WAC | OOC vs CUSA | OOC vs MAC / Sun Belt |
| Big 12 | 0.33 | 6 - 2 | 12 - 5 | 15 - 0 | 0 - 2 | 8 - 1 | 4 - 2 | 4 - 0 | 5 - 0 | 5 - 0 |
| SEC | 0.32 | 6 - 3 | 14 - 5 | 21 - 3 | 2 - 0 | 4 - 1 | 8 - 4 | 5 - 2 | 4 - 0 | 10 - 0 |
| Pac-12 | 0.17 | 2 - 5 | 9 - 11 | 9 - 5 | 1 - 6 | 2 - 5 | 4 - 0 | 7 - 3 | 0 - 1 | 1 - 0 |
| Big Ten | 0.11 | 4 - 6 | 10 - 12 | 21 - 5 | 1 - 6 | 5 - 2 | 3 - 2 | 4 - 1 | 1 - 2 | 15 - 2 |
| Big East | 0.06 | 3 - 2 | 8 - 12 | 13 - 4 | 3 - 4 | 0 - 3 | 4 - 4 | 0 - 0 | 3 - 2 | 8 - 2 |
| ACC | 0.01 | 2 - 6 | 11 - 18 | 11 - 3 | 3 - 8 | 2 - 4 | 4 - 4 | 1 - 0 | 4 - 2 | 6 - 1 |
| Indep | 0.00 | 1 - 1 | 7 - 13 | 12 - 11 | 1 - 3 | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | 6 - 5 | 4 - 2 | 2 - 4 |
| Mountain West | -0.15 | 2 - 3 | 3 - 9 | 14 - 10 | 1 - 3 | 2 - 5 | 0 - 0 | 6 - 5 | 1 - 2 | 3 - 3 |
| C-USA | -0.18 | 4 - 1 | 7 - 17 | 11 - 12 | 0 - 9 | 3 - 1 | 4 - 7 | 6 - 2 | 0 - 0 | 3 - 6 |
| WAC | -0.20 | 0 - 3 | 3 - 13 | 7 - 18 | 1 - 6 | 2 - 6 | 0 - 1 | 5 - 6 | 1 - 4 | 0 - 3 |
| MAC | -0.24 | 4 - 1 | 3 - 27 | 11 - 4 | 0 - 7 | 1 - 11 | 2 - 9 | 5 - 2 | 1 - 0 | 1 - 2 |
| Sun Belt | -0.34 | 1 - 2 | 2 - 18 | 8 - 7 | 0 - 8 | 1 - 5 | 1 - 5 | 1 - 1 | 5 - 3 | 2 - 1 |
Division Ratings
(I only compiled ratings for AQ divisions)
| Division | Rating | League | Rating | Inter-Div Record | Bowl Record |
| SEC West | 0.43 | SEC | 0.32 | 13 - 6 | 4 - 1 |
| Pac-12 North | 0.26 | Pac-12 | 0.17 | 17 - 9 | 1 - 3 |
| SEC East | 0.20 | SEC | 0.32 | 6 - 13 | 2 - 2 |
| Big Ten Legends | 0.19 | Big Ten | 0.11 | 12 - 7 | 2 - 3 |
| Pac-12 South | 0.08 | Pac-12 | 0.17 | 9 - 17 | 1 - 2 |
| Big Ten Leaders | 0.04 | Big Ten | 0.11 | 7 - 12 | 2 - 3 |
| ACC Coastal | 0.03 | ACC | 0.01 | 9 - 10 | 0 - 4 |
| ACC Atlantic | 0.00 | ACC | 0.01 | 10 - 9 | 2 - 2 |
Top and Bottom 25 Home-Road Splits
This describes how much better a team played at home vs on the road. It's well worth noting that it's neither good nor bad to be high or low on this list; it's good to have an especially strong home-field edge, with a loud crowd and possibly a weather edge, but it's also good to be able to play well on the road. Consequently, you will tend to see most really good teams around the middle of the list, because they do have a strong home-field edge but also are very capable of playing well on the road.
| 1 Central Florida | 96 Northwestern |
| 2 Nevada-Las Vegas | 97 Kansas State |
| 3 Syracuse | 98 Miami (Ohio) |
| 4 Arkansas State | 99 Troy State |
| 5 Army | 100 Oregon |
| 6 Baylor | 101 Stanford |
| 7 Washington | 102 Virginia Tech |
| 8 North Carolina | 103 Boston College |
| 9 Marshall | 104 Texas Christian |
| 10 UCLA | 105 Ball State |
| 11 Tennessee | 106 Alabama |
| 12 Western Michigan | 107 Temple |
| 13 Buffalo | 108 Navy |
| 14 Rutgers | 109 Boise State |
| 15 California | 110 Fresno State |
| 16 Mississippi State | 111 Louisiana Tech |
| 17 North Carolina State | 112 Southern California |
| 18 Pittsburgh | 113 Brigham Young |
| 19 Nevada | 114 Florida Atlantic |
| 20 Wisconsin | 115 Tulane |
| 21 Arizona State | 116 Texas Tech |
| 22 Iowa | 117 Virginia |
| 23 North Texas | 118 Air Force |
| 24 Clemson | 119 Louisville |
| 25 Mississippi | 120 Utah |
Top and Bottom 25 Most / Least Improved
This describes how much better a team played at the end of the year compared to how they played early on.
Since the system is rating how good a team is now, it's better to be higher than lower on this list,
though of course the best result is to play at a really high level the whole year long.
| 1 Western Kentucky | 96 Oklahoma |
| 2 Boston College | 97 Nebraska |
| 3 Southern California | 98 Fresno State |
| 4 Alabama | 99 Washington State |
| 5 North Carolina State | 100 North Carolina |
| 6 Southern Mississippi | 101 Pittsburgh |
| 7 Arkansas | 102 San Diego State |
| 8 Louisville | 103 Florida Atlantic |
| 9 Louisiana Tech | 104 Tulane |
| 10 Northern Illinois | 105 Duke |
| 11 Memphis | 106 Clemson |
| 12 Alabama-Birmingham | 107 Texas Tech |
| 13 Brigham Young | 108 Georgia Tech |
| 14 Houston | 109 Arizona |
| 15 North Texas | 110 Hawaii |
| 16 Air Force | 111 Akron |
| 17 Texas Christian | 112 Nevada-Las Vegas |
| 18 Eastern Michigan | 113 Illinois |
| 19 Miami (Ohio) | 114 Boise State |
| 20 Baylor | 115 South Florida |
| 21 Northwestern | 116 Syracuse |
| 22 Michigan State | 117 Tennessee |
| 23 South Carolina | 118 Middle Tennessee State |
| 24 Kent | 119 Maryland |
| 25 Marshall | 120 Arizona State |
Top Forty wins of the Year
| Game Rank | Team | Opponent | Location | Score |
| 1 | Alabama | Louisiana State | NEUTRAL | 21 - 0 |
| 2 | Oklahoma State | Oklahoma | HOME | 44 - 10 |
| 3 | Oregon | Stanford | AWAY | 53 - 30 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | Kansas State | AWAY | 58 - 17 |
| 5 | Louisiana State | Georgia | NEUTRAL | 42 - 10 |
| 6 | Louisiana State | Oregon | NEUTRAL | 40 - 27 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | Texas | NEUTRAL | 55 - 17 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | Missouri | AWAY | 45 - 24 |
| 9 | Oklahoma State | Texas Tech | AWAY | 66 - 6 |
| 10 | Oklahoma State | Baylor | HOME | 59 - 24 |
| 11 | Louisiana State | Alabama | AWAY | 9 - 6 |
| 12 | Alabama | Vanderbilt | HOME | 34 - 0 |
| 13 | Louisiana State | Mississippi | AWAY | 52 - 3 |
| 14 | Houston | Tulsa | AWAY | 48 - 16 |
| 15 | Alabama | Arkansas | HOME | 38 - 14 |
| 16 | Utah | Brigham Young | AWAY | 54 - 10 |
| 17 | Louisiana State | Arkansas | HOME | 41 - 17 |
| 18 | Louisiana State | Tennessee | AWAY | 38 - 7 |
| 19 | Alabama | Auburn | AWAY | 42 - 14 |
| 20 | Southern Mississippi | Houston | NEUTRAL | 49 - 28 |
| 21 | Clemson | Virginia Tech | NEUTRAL | 38 - 10 |
| 22 | Clemson | Virginia Tech | AWAY | 23 - 3 |
| 23 | Alabama | Florida | AWAY | 38 - 10 |
| 24 | Wisconsin | Penn State | HOME | 45 - 7 |
| 25 | Alabama | Mississippi State | AWAY | 24 - 7 |
| 26 | Oregon | Colorado | AWAY | 45 - 2 |
| 27 | Arizona State | Southern California | HOME | 43 - 22 |
| 28 | Louisiana State | West Virginia | AWAY | 47 - 21 |
| 29 | Louisiana State | Auburn | HOME | 45 - 10 |
| 30 | Southern California | California | AWAY | 30 - 9 |
| 31 | Michigan | Nebraska | HOME | 45 - 17 |
| 32 | Boise State | Georgia | AWAY | 33 - 21 |
| 33 | Oklahoma | Tulsa | HOME | 47 - 14 |
| 34 | Alabama | Mississippi | AWAY | 52 - 7 |
| 35 | West Virginia | Clemson | NEUTRAL | 70 - 33 |
| 36 | Oklahoma | Texas A&M | HOME | 41 - 25 |
| 37 | Alabama | Tennessee | HOME | 37 - 6 |
| 38 | Louisiana State | Florida | HOME | 41 - 11 |
| 39 | Boise State | Arizona State | NEUTRAL | 56 - 24 |
| 40 | Georgia | Auburn | HOME | 38 - 7 |
Bottom Forty losses of the Year
| Game Rank | Team | Opponent | Location | Score |
| 1391 | Memphis | Mississippi State | HOME | 14 - 59 |
| 1392 | Tulane | East Carolina | AWAY | 13 - 34 |
| 1393 | Idaho | Bowling Green State | HOME | 15 - 32 |
| 1394 | Middle Tennessee State | Louisiana-Lafayette | HOME | 20 - 45 |
| 1395 | New Mexico | San Diego State | AWAY | 7 - 35 |
| 1396 | Memphis | Rice | AWAY | 6 - 28 |
| 1397 | Buffalo | Miami (Ohio) | AWAY | 13 - 41 |
| 1398 | Middle Tennessee State | Arkansas State | HOME | 19 - 45 |
| 1399 | New Mexico | Texas Tech | HOME | 13 - 59 |
| 1400 | Army | Ball State | AWAY | 21 - 48 |
| 1401 | Ball State | Temple | HOME | 0 - 42 |
| 1402 | New Mexico | Nevada | AWAY | 7 - 49 |
| 1403 | Alabama-Birmingham | Marshall | AWAY | 14 - 59 |
| 1404 | Alabama-Birmingham | Florida Atlantic | AWAY | 35 - 38 |
| 1405 | Memphis | Middle Tennessee State | AWAY | 31 - 38 |
| 1406 | Idaho | Fresno State | HOME | 24 - 48 |
| 1407 | Nevada-Las Vegas | New Mexico | AWAY | 14 - 21 |
| 1408 | Akron | Western Michigan | AWAY | 19 - 68 |
| 1409 | Nevada-Las Vegas | Washington State | AWAY | 7 - 59 |
| 1410 | Florida Atlantic | Florida International | AWAY | 7 - 41 |
| 1411 | Memphis | Central Florida | AWAY | 0 - 41 |
| 1412 | Middle Tennessee State | Louisiana-Monroe | AWAY | 14 - 42 |
| 1413 | Memphis | Alabama-Birmingham | HOME | 35 - 41 |
| 1414 | Hawaii | Nevada-Las Vegas | AWAY | 20 - 40 |
| 1415 | New Mexico | New Mexico State | HOME | 28 - 42 |
| 1416 | Memphis | Southern Methodist | HOME | 0 - 42 |
| 1417 | Akron | Miami (Ohio) | AWAY | 3 - 35 |
| 1418 | Florida Atlantic | Western Kentucky | HOME | 0 - 20 |
| 1419 | Troy State | Louisiana-Monroe | HOME | 10 - 38 |
| 1420 | Tulane | Army | AWAY | 6 - 45 |
| 1421 | Florida Atlantic | Troy State | AWAY | 7 - 34 |
| 1422 | Middle Tennessee State | North Texas | AWAY | 7 - 59 |
| 1423 | Tulane | Texas-El Paso | HOME | 7 - 44 |
| 1424 | New Mexico | Air Force | HOME | 0 - 42 |
| 1425 | Florida Atlantic | Louisiana-Monroe | HOME | 0 - 26 |
| 1426 | Akron | Buffalo | AWAY | 10 - 51 |
| 1427 | Akron | Kent | HOME | 3 - 35 |
| 1428 | Florida Atlantic | Middle Tennessee State | HOME | 14 - 38 |
| 1429 | Tulane | Memphis | HOME | 17 - 33 |
| 1430 | Alabama-Birmingham | Tulane | HOME | 10 - 49 |
25 Biggest Head-Scratchers
These were the games that, after all of the games have been played, stick out as especially weird.
For instance, if a 20-point underdog wins by 10 early in the year, but then they go 8-4 and the team they upset goes 4-8, well,
that's not really so weird. But if a 14-point favorite wins by 35, then ends up 4-8 while the team they beat goes 8-4,
then that would stick out as a weird result despite it making sense at the time.
| Game Rank | Team | Opponent | Location | Score |
| 1 | Tulane | Alabama-Birmingham | AWAY | 49 - 10 |
| 2 | Hawaii | Louisiana Tech | AWAY | 44 - 26 |
| 3 | Syracuse | West Virginia | HOME | 49 - 23 |
| 4 | Utah | Brigham Young | AWAY | 54 - 10 |
| 5 | Clemson | Virginia Tech | NEUTRAL | 38 - 10 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | Oklahoma | AWAY | 41 - 38 |
| 7 | Clemson | Virginia Tech | AWAY | 23 - 3 |
| 8 | Iowa State | Texas Tech | AWAY | 41 - 7 |
| 9 | Southern Mississippi | Houston | NEUTRAL | 49 - 28 |
| 10 | Alabama-Birmingham | Southern Mississippi | HOME | 34 - 31 |
| 11 | Nevada-Las Vegas | Hawaii | HOME | 40 - 20 |
| 12 | Oregon State | Washington State | AWAY | 44 - 21 |
| 13 | Arizona State | Southern California | HOME | 43 - 22 |
| 14 | Maryland | Miami (Florida) | HOME | 32 - 24 |
| 15 | West Virginia | Clemson | NEUTRAL | 70 - 33 |
| 16 | Central Michigan | Northern Illinois | HOME | 48 - 41 |
| 17 | Alabama | Louisiana State | NEUTRAL | 21 - 0 |
| 18 | Vanderbilt | Wake Forest | AWAY | 41 - 7 |
| 19 | Washington | Utah | AWAY | 31 - 14 |
| 20 | Troy State | Arkansas | AWAY | 28 - 38 |
| 21 | Colorado | Utah | AWAY | 17 - 14 |
| 22 | Boston College | Miami (Florida) | AWAY | 24 - 17 |
| 23 | Arizona State | Utah | AWAY | 35 - 14 |
| 24 | Navy | Western Kentucky | AWAY | 40 - 14 |
| 25 | Southern Methodist | Pittsburgh | NEUTRAL | 28 - 6 |
Technical notes about the lists:
1) Conference ratings are straight averages of all of the teams in the league. There is no "central averaging" (like Sagarin does),
or over-weighting the top teams, or anything like that. Such approaches would yield different numbers,
and could potentially change the order of some of the leagues.
2) Games against AA teams are not counted. There are many good arguments both for and against counting such games
(see this link for an interesting analysis of the issue).
I have elected not to count these results in the Compu-Picks model. As is the case almost every year, this means that one or two especially surprising AA upsets
don't make it into the numbers, skewing the results to a fair degree for a couple of teams. I believe that this is a more than acceptable tradeoff given the substantial issues
that counting AA games would create, but you are certainly welcome to disagree with my decision on this matter.
3) As mentioned here, the purpose of this system is to make picks, not to create a list used for rankings.
As such, I evaluate the system solely on the basis of how good a job it does making picks. I do not evaluate the system on the basis of whether or not
it agreed with AP polls, BCS rankings, the BCS computers, or any other such list out there. In fact, the system has a long and established history of
being substantially different than those sources. I am fine with these differences. To be honest, I publish these lists because I find them interesting
and thought-provoking, and because I believe it is a good thing to introduce an approach that doesn't simply regurgitate the same avenues of thinking as you can find
in most places.
4) The system is noisy, especially earlier in the year. This is why I start with only a top 10 / bottom 10 list, and slowly expand it. While I believe
that the numbers are reasonable, I certainly accept that they're not perfect. If you believe that a specific team is over- or under-ranked, you may well be right.
I bring this up because if you're going to criticize the system for being wrong about a team, I'd appreciate it if you explain why
you think the system is substantially wrong, rather than just marginally so (if it's just one or two slots off,
especially well before the end of the year, I'd consider that well within a reasonable error range).
5) Some people have expressed curiosity about compu-picks' schedule ratings. Essentially, it's the average difficulty of all 1-A games that a team has played to date,
which basically means the average rating of all of a team's 1-A opponents, then adjusted for things like home-field advantage. This, of course, varies enormously
from the NCAA's official schedule ratings, which simply look at the opponents' winning percentages and that's it. Needless to say, the NCAA's approach is silly
and deeply flawed; it's better than picking numbers out of a hat, but no serious analyst should rely on it at all when trying to evaluate how difficult a team's schedule actually was.
There are a few important notes and caveats I need to make about this model:
1) Compu-Picks does not endorse implicitly or explicitly any form of illegal gambling.
Compu-Picks is intended to be used for entertainment purposes only.
2) No guarantee or warranty is offered or implied by Compu-Picks for any information provided and/or predictions made.
2011 Compu-Picks Blog
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
